June 21, 2018

Do first your macroeconomic homework

Comment on Lars Syll on ‘The microfoundations crusade’

Blog-Reference and Blog-Reference

Lars Syll summarizes: “But one thing I do know, is that the kind of microfoundationalist macroeconomics that New Classical economists in the vein of Lucas and Sargent and the so-called New Keynesian economists in the vein of Mankiw et consortes are pursuing, are not methodologically coherent … And that ought to be rather embarrassing for those ilks of macroeconomists to whom axiomatics and deductivity are the hallmark of science tout court.”

What the representative economist has to realize is:
• Microfoundations have been dead for 150+ years. Because of this, microfoundatlist macro has never been anything else than a stillborn approach.
• All microfounded approaches invariably crash against the methodological wall of the Fallacy of Composition. Methodologically, there is no such thing as a microfounded macro.
• Being content with superficial criticism, Heterodoxy never realized what the lethal defect of Orthodoxy was and never developed an alternative. In methodological terms, Heterodoxy never executed the overdue paradigm shift from microfoundations to macrofoundations.
• Keynes came very close to the paradigm shift but then messed it up. After-Keynesians, with the exception of Allais, have failed to this day to spot the blunder in Keynes’ macrofoundations.

Walrasian microfoundations and Keynesian macrofoundations are proto-scientific garbage. Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, and Austrianism are axiomatically false. Methodologically, it holds for the inescapable Paradigm Shift: If it isn’t macro-axiomatized, it isn’t economics.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke



Related 'Economics: a science without scientists' and 'The fundamental problem of economics: scientific incompetence aka stupidity' and 'Getting out of the economics swamp' and 'Beware of the moralizing economist' and 'Economic policy advice has never had sound scientific foundations' and 'Show first your economic axioms or get out of the discussion' and 'MMT and the canonical macroeconomic model'. For details of the big picture, see cross-references Scientific Incompetence and cross-references Failed/Fake Scientists and cross-references Axiomatization.

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AXEC121i

June 20, 2018

Nietzsche, entropy, full employment, and NO class war

Comment on David Ruccio on ‘Utopia and work’

Blog-Reference

David Ruccio resumes: “The goal of mainstream economists is to get everybody to work. As a result, they celebrate capitalism for creating full employment — and worry that capitalism will falter if not enough people are working.” However, philosophers have long been aware that full employment is not such a good idea: “According to Friedrich Nietzsche …, the dignity of labor was invented as one of the ‘needy products of slavedom hiding itself from itself.’ That’s because, in Nietzsche’s view (following the Greeks), labor is only a ‘painful means’ for existence and existence (as against art) has no value in itself. Therefore, ‘labour is a disgrace’.”

Let us, first of all, take folk psychology out of the issue. Labor must be seen against the background of entropy. Entropy brings humans eventually down to zero. The intake of goods, energy, etc., slows this process down. The production of goods, though, requires labor input.

Imagine the following initial state. Every living person gets a plot of land in the form of a hexagon. This land delivers all that the person needs. We can put as many hexagons together as we like. Hexagonland is large and symmetrical. There is no scarcity of land or resources. Each occupant works Li=9 hours per day, has 1 hour of leisure, and needs 14 hours for regeneration. The necessary and sufficient output is Oi per day. There is no boss, no exploitation, no slavedom, no government. Whether the Hexagonians think that labor is a disgrace is a matter of indifference. If they stop working, they produce no output, entropy takes over, and they drop dead in a little while. This is the original material human condition. Labor is a means to counteract entropy. Without external limitations or disturbances, it can go on for an indefinite time.

Now, we switch to the monetary economy. The elementary production-consumption economy is given with this set of macroeconomic axioms: (A0) The objectively given and most elementary systemic configuration consists of the household and the business sector, which in turn consists initially of one giant fully integrated firm. (A1) Yw=WL wage income Yw is equal to wage rate W times working hours L, (A2) O=RL output O is equal to productivity R times working hours L, (A3) C=PX consumption expenditure C is equal to price P times quantity bought/sold X.

Under the conditions of market-clearing X=O and budget-balancing C=Yw in each period, the price is given as P=W/R (1), i.e., the market-clearing price is always equal to unit wage costs. This is the most elementary form of the macroeconomic Law of Supply and Demand.

From (1) follows the real wage as W/P=R (2). The output of the i-th worker is Oi=RLi. For a start, it is assumed that individual labor time Li and output Oi are exactly identical to the situation in Hexagonland. Up to this point, the material situation of the people of Hexagonland has not changed. What has changed is that they work in a firm, get an income, and spend it on consumption goods.

The graphical representation of the elementary production-consumption economy is shown under the label of Graphic. #1


Monetary profit of the business sector is defined as Qm≡C−Yw and monetary saving of the household sector is defined as Sm≡Yw−C. It always holds Qm+Sm=0, or Qm=−Sm, in other words, the business sector’s surplus = profit equals the household sector’s deficit = dissaving. Vice versa, the business sector’s deficit = loss equals the household sector’s surplus = saving. This is the most elementary form of the macroeconomic Profit Law. Under the condition of budget balancing C=Yw total monetary profit is zero.

So, the profit of the business sector is zero, the workers get the whole output O, and the real wage is equal to the productivity.

Now, the organization of the production process is improved through the division of labor, and the productivity increases. With unchanged individual and total labor time, total output O increases. The market-clearing price falls according to (1) and the real wage increases according to (2). The profit of the business sector is still zero because of C=Yw.

From the observer standpoint, the economy has two limiting paths open, (i) individual labor time Li is kept unchanged and output Oi increases, or (ii) output Oi is kept constant and labor time Li is reduced. If productivity is increasing over time, individual labor time Li goes asymptotically to zero.

Let us call this the Diogenes Solution. Curiously, Nietzsche, when he speaks of  ‘the’ Greeks in the preface to The Greek State, never mentions Diogenes. In order not to erect another False-Hero-Memorial, though, it should be mentioned that Diogenes was also a practical economist who was banished from Sinope “when he took to debasement of currency” (Wikipedia). Money creation is NOT meant with the Diogenes Solution, but fixing the output Oi at some cultural minimum = maximum.

It holds for both limiting paths and all combinations in between that the real wage is equal to the productivity, the workers get the whole output, and macroeconomic profit is zero. So, as productivity increases, the Legitimate Sovereign can choose between more material wealth or more leisure or a combination of the two. For the business sector, all combinations are indifferent because profit is zero in all cases as long as the household sector’s budget is balanced, i.e., C=Yw. Macroeconomic profit depends neither on labor time nor on productivity. This is a bit surprising for economists and philosophers who are still stuck in the old world of Walrasian, Keynesian, Marxian, and Austrian economics, exploitation, and class war. #2

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#1 Graphic AXEC31 The elementary production-consumption economy
#2 Ricardo and the invention of class war

Related 'Capitalism, poverty, exploitation, and cross-over exploitation' and 'Employment theory as an example of proto-scientific soapbubbling' and 'The set screws of overall and individual employment' and 'True macrofoundations: the reset of economics.

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REPLY to Sandwichman on Jun 21

The Lump-of-Labor Fallacy is NOT solvable by comparing/confronting the statements of politicians on the issue of full employment, as you do in your post War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Strength.

For the scientifically/philosophically correct answer, see the Diogenes Solution in Nietzsche, Entropy, Full Employment, and NO Class War

June 19, 2018

The Fisher Effect ― another piece of nincompoop-economics

Comment on David Glasner on ‘Keynes and the Fisher Equation’

Blog-Reference

Roughly speaking, the Fisher Equation is about the relationship between nominal and real interest rates under inflation, and the Fisher Effect is about the effects of changes in expected inflation on the nominal interest rates. #1

In the following, it will be demonstrated that the Fisher Effect is due to a design flaw of the monetary economy. Neither Fisher nor Keynes has realized this because they never understood how the economic system works. #2

As the correct analytical starting point, the elementary production-consumption economy is defined with this set of macroeconomic axioms: (A0) The objectively given and most elementary configuration of the economy consists of the household and the business sector, which in turn consists initially of one giant fully integrated firm. (A1) Yw=WL wage income Yw is equal to wage rate W times working hours. L, (A2) O=RL output O is equal to productivity R times working hours L, (A3) C=PX consumption expenditure C is equal to price P times quantity bought/sold X.

Under the conditions of market-clearing X=O and budget-balancing C=Yw in each period, the price is given by P=W/R (1). This is the most elementary form of the macroeconomic Law of Supply and Demand.

The price P is determined by the wage rate W, which takes the role of the nominal numéraire, and the productivity R. The quantity of money is NOT among the price determinants. This puts the commonplace Quantity Theory forever to rest.

What is needed for a start is two things: (i) a central bank which creates money on its balance sheet in the form of deposits, and (ii) a legal system which declares the central bank’s deposits as legal tender.

Deposit money is needed by the business sector to pay the workers who receive the wage income Yw per period. The need is only temporary because the business sector gets the money back if the workers fully spend their income, i.e., if C=Yw. Overdrafts are needed by the household sector for consumption expenditures if the households want to spend before they get their income.

For the case of a balanced budget C=Yw, the idealized transaction sequence of deposits/overdrafts of the household sector at the central bank over the course of one period is shown under the label of Graphic. #3


The household sector’s deposits/overdrafts are ZERO at the beginning and end of the period. Money is continually created and destroyed during the period under consideration. There is NO such thing as a fixed quantity of money. The central bank plays an accommodative role and simply supports the autonomous market transactions between the household and the business sector.

From this follows the average stock of transaction money as M=kYw, with k determined by the transaction pattern. In other words, the average stock of money M is determined by the autonomous transactions of the household and business sector and created out of nothing by the central bank. The economy NEVER runs out of money.

Monetary profit for the economy as a whole is defined as Qm≡C−Yw, and monetary saving as Sm≡Yw−C. It always holds Qm≡−Sm, in other words, the business sector’s surplus = profit equals the household sector’s deficit = dissaving. Vice versa, the business sector’s deficit = loss equals the household sector’s surplus = saving. This is the most elementary form of the macroeconomic Profit Law.

When the government is added, the Profit Law reads Qm≡(G−T)−Sm. Legend: G government expenditures, T taxes.

In the initial period, G, T, and Sm are all zero. Hence, macroeconomic profit Qm, too, is zero.

In period 1, there is a government sector deficit, but it is exactly equal to the household sector saving. Hence, Qm is again zero. The government’s debt consists of overdrafts at the central bank Ω. The household sector’s savings consist of deposits at the central bank Φ. Both sides of the central bank’s balance sheet are equal.

Now, the interest rate on deposits is zero and the interest rate on government debt is r. The rate r is set such that it covers exactly the central bank’s wage bill, i.e., rΩ=WL* (2). #4, #5

Under these simplified conditions, one has for the price of the consumption good P=W/R and for the rate of interest r=(W/Ω)L* (3).

In period 2, the wage rate W is doubled. All real variables remain unchanged. According to (1), the price P doubles. According to (2), either (a) the nominal rate of interest r doubles and the nominal debt Ω remains constant, or (b) the nominal rate of interest remains constant and the nominal debt doubles.

Needless to emphasize that (2b) is the correct solution. The institutional setting, though, is such that the nominal value of the debt does NOT move in lockstep with inflation.

In the correct institutional setting for the monetary economy, the nominal rate of interest does NOT move with inflation, but nominal debt does. So, there is NO such thing as a Fisher Effect; the nominal rate r remains constant. And because of this, inflation expectations have NO effect on the nominal interest rate.

In well-behaved inflation, the nominal interest rate r remains constant, the real interest rate r'=r/P falls, and the nominal debt increases Ω'=ΩP such that nominal interest payments rΩ' increase and real interest payments r'Ω' remain constant.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#1 Wikipedia Fisher Equation
#2 Macroeconomics ― dead since Keynes
#3 Graphic AXEC98 Idealized transaction pattern
#4 Essentials of Constructive Heterodoxy: Money, Credit, Interest
#5 The Emergence of Profit and Interest in the Monetary Circuit

June 18, 2018

Wrapping up the MMT narrative

Comment on Tom Hickey on ‘The Wage[s]-Lump Doctrine ― still dogma after all these years’

Blog-Reference

Tom Hickey puts the MMT narrative straight: “… it’s contradicted by Warren Mosler’s account of how he discovered what he called ‘soft currency economics’ through an operationally-based understand of government finance, from which he made a pile of $. Subsequently, Warren met Randy Wray and then Bill Mitchell, who jointly developed the economics that came to be called MMT. Warren funded it.”

This information helps to wrap up this thread.*

• MMT is the most recent incarnation of Political Economy. Political Economy abuses science since Adam Smith/Karl Marx for the purpose of agenda-pushing.

• Political Economy started as open propaganda, became more sophisticated over time, and is now a mixture of propaganda and science with varying proportions of the component parts. In most cases, the science ingredient does not satisfy the criteria of material and formal consistency. So what remains in the end of political economics, is a piece of communication with zero scientific content.

• The scientific component of MMT is provably false. More precisely: MMT’s foundational macroeconomic balances equation, i.e. (X−M)+(G−T)+(I−S)=0, is false. The true equation reads (X−M)+(G−T)+(I−S)−(Q−Yd)=0.#1

• The true equation says, inter alia, Public Deficit = Private Profit.

• The economic policy guidance of MMT boils down to money-creation/deficit spending. Deficit spending has multiple effects, the main and immediate effect is that it increases macroeconomic profit.

• MMT is presented to the general public as a socially beneficial program that uses the fiat money system for the Common Good. MMT’s argumentative flagship is the Job Guarantee. MMTers always talk about the employment effect of deficit spending but never about the profit effect.

• As a matter of fact, MMT amounts to a capturing of the state/central bank for continuous deficit spending which in turn amounts to a continuous self-financing of the one-percenters.

• Members of the Oligarchy like Warren Mosler fund the propagation of the MMT self-financing scheme on all levels of communication from academia to social media.

• With regard to economics, which still claims to be a science, this has become common practice.#2

• The real problem with MMT, though, consists of the employment of the well-meaning and unsuspecting philosopher Tom Hickey and other proponents of the Good Society for pushing an a-social agenda.#3

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#1 MMT: The one deadly error/fraud of Warren Mosler
#2 Meet the Economist Behind the One Percent’s Stealth Takeover of America
#3 Deficit-spending/money-creation is ALWAYS a bad deal for WeThePeople

* Related 'Employment theory as an example of proto-scientific soapbubbling'

June 13, 2018

Nick Rowe’s soap bubbling about money

Comment on Nick Rowe on ‘The Parable of the Fruit Trees’

Blog-Reference

“The apple producer produces apples. The banana producer produces bananas. The cherry producer produces cherries.” The economist produces proto-scientific garbage.

What is wrong with Nick Rowe’s depiction of the economy? The subject matter of economics is, as Keynes said, the ‘monetary theory of production’. This sets the frame for the theory of money. The fact that Nick Rowe clings to a long-defunct barter parable proves that he has no idea how the economy works.

As the correct analytical starting point, the elementary production-consumption economy is defined with this set of macroeconomic axioms: (A0) The objectively given and most elementary configuration of the economy consists of the household and the business sector, which in turn consists initially of one giant fully integrated firm. (A1) Yw=WL wage income Yw is equal to wage rate W times working hours. L, (A2) O=RL output O is equal to productivity R times working hours L, (A3) C=PX consumption expenditure C is equal to price P times quantity bought/sold X.

Under the conditions of market-clearing X=O and budget-balancing C=Yw in each period, the price is given by P=W/R (1). This is the most elementary form of the macroeconomic Law of Supply and Demand.

The price P is determined by the wage rate W, which takes the role of the nominal numéraire, and the productivity R. The quantity of money is NOT among the price determinants. This puts the commonplace Quantity Theory forever to rest.

What is needed for a start is two things: (i) a central bank which creates money on its balance sheet in the form of deposits, and (ii) a legal system which declares the central bank’s deposits as legal tender.

Deposit money is needed by the business sector to pay the workers who receive the wage income Yw per period. The need is only temporary because the business sector gets the money back if the workers fully spend their income, i.e., if C=Yw. Overdrafts are needed by the household sector for consumption expenditures if the households want to spend before they get their income.

For the case of a balanced budget C=Yw, the idealized transaction sequence of deposits/overdrafts of the household sector at the central bank over the course of one period is shown under the label Graphic. #1

The household sector’s deposits/overdrafts are ZERO at the beginning and end of the period. Money is continually created and destroyed during the period under consideration. There is NO such thing as a fixed quantity of money. The central bank plays an accommodative role and simply supports the autonomous market transactions between the household and the business sector.

From this follows the average stock of transaction money as M=κYw, with κ determined by the transaction pattern. In other words, the average stock of money M is determined by the autonomous transactions of the household and business sector and created out of nothing by the central bank. The economy NEVER runs out of money. There is NO such thing as “an excessive demand for one particular asset (the medium of exchange) relative to other assets.”

The transaction equation reads M=κPRL (2) in the case of budget balancing and market clearing. If employment L is doubled, the average stock of transaction money M doubles. If employment is halved, the average stock of transaction money M halves.

As long as the central bank finances the wage bill Yw=WL with money creation out of nothing, and with wage rate W and productivity R fixed, the price P does not move one iota according to (1). The average quantity of money M increases/decreases according to (2) but there is no inflation/deflation. Money is absolutely neutral. The creation of fiat money is the correct way of bringing money into the elementary production-consumption economy.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#1 Graphic AXEC98 Idealized transaction pattern

Related 'The futile attempt to recycle Sraffa' and 'Money: from silly stories to the true theory' and 'Primary and Secondary Markets' and 'Exchange in the Monetary Economy' and 'Getting out of the economics swamp'.

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REPLY to Nick Rowe on Jun 14

Nick Rowe clarifies his parable: “It is not an excessive desire to accumulate assets that causes recessions; it is an excessive demand for one particular asset (the medium of exchange) relative to other assets. It’s about the composition of their portfolios of assets, not about the total size of that portfolio.”

The two lethal blunders of Nick Rowe are:
• to frame elementary economic activity as barter of stocks of goods a.k.a. assets,
• to frame money as an asset.

The elementary economy is about production and consumption. Input is a real flow = labor time per period, output is a real flow = apples/bananas/cherries per period, income is a nominal flow, and so on. Money is neither a stock nor a flow. Money is not a thing, not a real asset. Money is information. The information is stored on a medium, e.g. magnetic data carrier, a clay tablet, paper, a coin, etcetera. As a matter of principle, money cannot be scarce; only the physical data carrier can become scarce.

Money starts as a medium of transaction, as shown in the previous post, and it supports ANY level of economic activity. Problems arise if the households do not balance their budget, i.e., do not fully spend their period income, that is, if consumption expenditures C are less than wage income Yw. In this case, the household sector’s deposits at the central bank increase, and money morphs from a pure transaction medium to a store of value. #1

Precisely at this point, money becomes an asset, more precisely a financial asset. All real assets (apples, bananas, cherries) are zero at the beginning of the period and at the end of the period. The household sector’s portfolio consists solely of deposits at the central bank. This is how the monetary economy works. Nobody barter apples for bananas.

In the elementary production-consumption economy, the household sector can increase its stock of money if C is less than Yw. This has some obvious consequences for the business sector.

Monetary profit for the economy as a whole is defined as Qm≡C−Yw, and monetary saving as Sm≡Yw−C. It always holds Qm≡−Sm, in other words, the business sector’s surplus = profit equals the household sector’s deficit = dissaving. Vice versa, the business sector’s deficit = loss equals the household sector’s surplus = saving. This is the most elementary form of the macroeconomic Profit Law.

The simple fact of the matter is: as the household sector’s deposits at the central bank rise, so do the business sector’s overdrafts. The central bank’s balance sheet is always balanced. The business sector’s debt increases, that is, its deposits at the central bank = money become very, very scarce, and THIS causes a recession. The composition of output and changes in the composition of output (apples, bananas, cherries) are absolutely irrelevant.

Now, give Nick Rowe a banana, and send him back into the barter woods.


#1 Money and time
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REPLY to Nick Rowe and other commentators on Jun 15

In the two preceding posts, it has been argued that Nick Rowe’s barter parable lacks the elementary features of the monetary economy. Barter models have always been false and will always be false because the economy constitutes itself through the interaction of real and nominal variables.#1

It has been argued that the composition of output and changes in the composition of output (apples, bananas, cherries) are irrelevant for the money transactions between the household and the business sector and that they do not cause a recession. Only a reduction of total nominal demand causes a recession.

To see this, let us make a simple example. Imagine two firms, 1 and 2 for short. The wage rates in both firms are equal, so the total wage income is Yw=WL1+WL2, and total employment is L=L1+L2.

In the initial period, the respective prices are equal to unit wage costs, i.e., P1=W/R1 and P2=W/R2. Therefore, the profit in both firms is initially zero. The household sector spends total wage income on the two products, i.e., C=Yw, so there is neither saving nor dissaving.

The distribution of total consumption expenditures C=C1+C2 between the two products determines the production of the respective quantities and the respective labor inputs L1 and L2. It holds C=C1+C2=W(L1+L2)=WL=Yw.

So, if the household sector wants more of product 1, it spends more on it and less on product 2, such that C1 goes up and C2 goes down, and C remains unchanged. Accordingly, the business sector employs more workers in firm 1 and fewer in firm 2, such that L1 goes up and L2 goes down, and total employment L and total income Yw remain unchanged.

The relative price, i.e., the exchange relation between the two products, remains unchanged, i.e., P1/P2=R2/R1.

So, changes in the preferences between the two products are mirrored in changes in the distribution of labor input between the two firms. This configuration can go on forever. Problems arise only if the household sector reduces total consumption expenditures C, such that saving Sm≡C−Yw is now greater than zero. In this case, the business sector makes a loss and the economy goes into recession.


#1 The irreparable unreality of all ‘real’ models

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REPLY to Nick Rowe on Jun 16

The lethal flaw of The Parable of the Fruit Trees is the obsolete concept of direct barter. In the monetary economy, barter is indirect. In methodological terms, barter economists commit the Fallacy of Insufficient Abstraction.

In the monetary economy, agent 1 does not produce product 1 and barter directly with agent 2, who produces product 2.

In the monetary economy, agent 1 works in firm 1, which produces product 1 and gets the wage income Yw1, which is paid with a transfer of deposits at the central bank.

Analogous to agent 2.

Agent 1 then spends part of his income on product 2. Analogous to agent 2, who spends part of his income on product 1. This is how INDIRECT barter happens. By buying the other firm’s output, agent 1 barters “his” product with agent 2 and vice versa.

Indirect barter presupposes the existence of money, which is used (i) to pay the wage bill, and (ii) to buy the products. Money is created and destroyed in the process. The cycle can be repeated ad infinitum. Transaction money is NOT a stock and NOT an asset. It is zero at the beginning and the end of the cycle.

Changes in preferences lead to changes in output and production, and the allocation of labor between the two firms. Total spending and total employment, and the relative prices do NOT change in the process. Production adapts quantitatively to preferences.

Put simply, if agents want more of product 1 and less of product 2, more labor input has to be allocated to firm 1 and less to firm 2. The change in the composition of output has NO effect on the monetary transactions. Total income and total consumption expenditures remain unaffected.

Only if the household sector saves, which gradually increases its “stock of money” = average amount of deposits at the central bank, problems arise in the elementary production-consumption economy. Changes in the composition of output do not, they only lead to a reallocation of labor input.

Needless to emphasize that normally the two processes, growth/shrinkage of total production/output/average stock of transaction money, and change in the composition of output, are mixed. Analytically, though, they have to be strictly kept apart.

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REPLY to Henry Rech on Jun 16

You say: “There has to be money to start the transaction cycle. Money is needed for a purchase.”

Money is created in the act of transaction. Either the business sector creates an IOU and hands it over as wage payment to the household sector, or the central bank creates uno actu deposits for the wage receivers and corresponding overdrafts for the firms. The purchase of the output destroys money = deposits at the central bank. This is how fiat money works. The transactions themselves create/destroy money.

At the logical beginning of economic activity, there is neither a stock of goods nor of money. All physical stocks have to be produced, and money is produced (or ‘created out of nothing’) by the central bank/banking system. The economic analysis starts at zero. And this also holds for the theory of money.

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REPLY to Matthew Young on Jun 18

You say: “Simultaneous is a relative when money moves faster than fruit.”

The purpose of a parable is to make one point as clear as possible. For this purpose, the situation is radically simplified. Needless to emphasize that simplification and idealization are legitimate tools of analysis. However, as always, there is the possibility that the tool is misapplied and that the dilettantish scientific craftsman hits his thumb instead of the nail.

The problem with simplification/idealization is that it erroneously abstracts reality away instead of all the details that are indeed irrelevant to the question at issue. One of the most prominent examples of the Fallacy of Insufficient Abstraction is simultaneity. This is to eliminate time, and this is sufficient to relegate any model/parable into the Dancing-Angels-On-A-Pinpoint category.

Nick Rowe’s Parable of the Fruit Trees, too, falls into this category. Its lethal defect is long known as the Hahn problem: “The Hahn problem reveals three things. First, a perfect barter GE solution always exists in any ‘monetary’ model erected on Walrasian GE microeconomic foundations. Second, inessential monetary features are easily attached to perfect barter microeconomic foundations but are as easily removed, leaving the perfect barter solution intact. Third, attaching such inessential additions leads to a logical error; the misuse of language that produces invalid conclusions.”*

Nick Rowe and Matthew Young have not gotten the point that in the monetary economy, barter is indirect and that, therefore, the discussion of direct barter is pretty much a revival of the Dancing-Angels-On-A-Pinpoint disputations of the Middle Ages.


* Colin Rogers, Review of Political Economy

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REPLY to Nick Edmonds on Jun 19

You say: “One problem we have translating your parable to the real world is that asset prices are generally highly flexible (and arguably asset markets can be much more easily cleared by price movements than goods and labour markets).”

Not at all! The real problem is that economists have, after 200+ years, still no clue how the price and profit mechanism works.

To begin with, there are TWO fundamentally different types of markets.#1 In the elementary production-consumption economy, one has the flows of labor input and product output (apples, bananas, cherries per period). The quantity produced is, for a start, equal to the quantity sold and consumed. So the stock of products is zero at the beginning and the end of the period. The primary markets (e.g., product, labor) deal with flows.

If part of the output is not consumed in the same period, then there remains a stock of durable goods = real assets, e.g., houses. This is how the secondary markets come into existence.

The point is that the primary and secondary markets run on entirely different principles and that they can by no stretch of the scientific imagination be described with the barter parable nor with supply-demand-equilibrium. What Leijonhufvud has called the Totem-of-the-Micro has always been nincompoop economics.


#1 Primary and Secondary Markets

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REPLY to Nick Rowe on Jun 20

Nick Rowe concludes: “If we see recessions as a cluster of symptoms, that usually (but not always) go together, it’s not obvious how we define a ‘recession’, and whether we define it in terms of symptoms or of causes. And what’s true by definition and what’s true/false as a statement of fact. Bit like defining different illnesses.”

There is science, and it is binary true/false with NOTHING in between. Truth is well-defined for 2300+ years by formal and material consistency. And there is the large swamp of cargo cult science where, as Keynes said, “nothing is clear and everything is possible.”

In the swamp, vagueness, indeterminacy, inconclusiveness, confusion dressed up as complexity, unresolved contradictions, storytelling, filibuster, gossip, finicky scholasticism (Popper), known/unknown unknowns, and the Humpty Dumpty Fallacy are the prevailing components of communication. #1, #2, #3

This, of course, has not gone unnoticed: “The currently prevailing pattern of economic theorizing exhibits the following three characteristics: (1) a syncopated style of argument fluctuating back and forth between literary and symbolic modes of expression, (2) naive translation, or the loose paraphrasing of formulae into sentences, and (3) loose verbal reasoning for certain aspects of theoretical argumentation where explicit symbolic formulation is lacking.” (Dennis, 1982)

From Nick Rowe’s Parable of the Fruit Trees, nothing can be learned about how the price and profit mechanism works. This does not matter, though, because the purpose of economics has never been to clarify matters and to advance science but to keep everything and everybody in the swamp of inconclusiveness.

Vagueness and inconclusiveness protect the scientifically incompetent and secure the status quo because:
• “... you cannot prove a vague theory wrong.” (Feynman)
• “With enough fog emitted, almost anything becomes possible.” (Mirowski)

One will not find a single scientist in the swamp. #4 The swamp has always been the habitat of parable-tellers and cargo cult scientists.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#1 It is better to be precisely right than roughly wrong
#2 “This is a tough question to adjudicate on scientific grounds since the issue is largely definitional and, as Lewis Carroll pointed out, everyone is entitled to his own definitions.” (Blinder)
#3 “’When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’ ‘The question is,’ said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’ ‘The question is,’ said Humpty Dumpty, ‘which is to be master — that’s all’.”
#4 Getting out of the economics swamp

June 11, 2018

Richard Murphy: the MMT fraudster dressed up as realist

Comment on Richard Murphy on ‘MMT: economics for an economy focused on meeting the needs of most people’*

Blog-Reference

Realism is practical idiocy, but most people like it. And they dislike ‘theory’. So, Richard Murphy opens his post with: “Modern Monetary Theory does suffer from being called a theory.” Note, first of all, nobody else than MMTers themselves has chosen this designation.

Richard Murphy makes it clear that he is not an unworldly theoretician but a down-to-earth realist and that MMT is as realistic as one can get: “In other words, it’s a description of what happens and not an explanation of what might be.”

Richard Murphy plays the old clichés of theoretician and practitioner against each other. Needless to emphasize that a theory is NOT something lofty, unreal, unworldly, or impractical, just the opposite: “There is nothing so practical as a good theory.” (Kant) A scientific theory is the humanly best mental representation of reality. The whole of civilization is built upon good theories. #1

The problem most people have with science is that it is often counterintuitive. Personal experience tells one that the sun goes around the earth, but the Theory of Gravity says it is the other way round.

The issue has been addressed by the great methodologist and economist J. S. Mill: “People fancied they saw the sun rise and set, the stars revolve in circles round the pole. We now know that they saw no such thing; what they really saw was a set of appearances, equally reconcileable with the theory they held and with a totally different one. It seems strange that such an instance as this, ..., should not have opened the eyes of the bigots of common sense, and inspired them with a more modest distrust of the competency of mere ignorance to judge the conclusions of cultivated thought.”

The fact is that in the political arena, the bigots of common sense are on their own. The ambition of agenda pushers like Richard Murphy is to win over the majority of the bigots of common sense. To enlighten the world scientifically is NOT his business.

So, what is wrong with MMT? MMT is proto-scientific garbage and political fraud.

Richard Murphy argues:
(i) “Let me absolutely clear: what this says is that government spending actually creates the money to enable the apparent payment of tax that appears, in popular imagination, to fund that spend. It also creates the money to buy government bonds ― which are private wealth. In other words we don't have tax and spend. We have spend and tax.”
(ii) “This logic is core to modern monetary theory: it is tax that provides value to a state’s money. It is the government’s promise to accept its own currency in payment of tax that gives its money its worth.”
(iii) “So money has value because the government endows it with that quality. And then, and only then, is the supposed left-wing quality added to this whole issue, because modern monetary theory then notes that when markets do not create full employment … then the government can create its own money to just to indirectly boost economic activity …, but to do it directly by investing itself.”

All three arguments are commonsensically plausible but scientifically false. #2, #3 What MMT boils down to is that economic problems can and should be solved with money-creation/deficit spending. Of course, it is long known that deficit-spending stimulates the economy, what seems to be unknown is that the macroeconomic Profit Law says that Public Deficit = Private Profit. So MMT first and foremost stimulates the one-percenters. #4

However, MMT claims to promote the cause of the ninety-nine-percenters: “The only twist most explicit modern monetary theorists add is that we could use this power of the government to create money out of thin air … for the good of everyone by trying to boost employment, investment, productivity and median wages by direct government activity or investment. If that’s cultish, faddish, or left wing, then so be it, I say.”

Needless to emphasize that Richard Murphy never mentions profit, the Profit Law, or the profit effect of deficit spending. Worse, MMTers regularly make this effect verbally disappear by speaking of benefits for the private sector a.k.a. ninety-nine-percenters while the benefits actually go to the business sector a.k.a. one-percenters. And this is not only bad science but a plain political fraud.

So, what is the real political and scientific reality? MMT policy is an abuse of the fiat money system with massive and virtually unlimited redistributive effects in the interest of the one-percenters. MMT is phony social policy designed by Wall Street and marketed by roll-up-the-sleeves realists like Richard Murphy and heart-winning Progressives like Stephanie Kelton. #5 The marketing is good but the product is real crap.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


* Tax Research UK
#1 Why J. S. Mill had no friendly word for the bigots and votaries of common sense
#2 For the full-spectrum refutation of MMT see cross-references MMT
#3 MMT: Richard Murphy’s battle-for-money hoax
#4 Keynes, Lerner, MMT, Trump and exploding profit
#5 MMT and grassroots movements

Related 'What is so great about cargo cult science? or, How economists learned to stop worrying about failure' and 'No trade-off, Kant said' and 'Bagehot’s wisdom and the silliness of modern economists' and 'Economics and the Fallacy of Insufficient Abstraction' and 'Complexity and stupidity' and 'MMT: Richard Murphy’s battle-for-money hoax' and 'Wrapping up the MMT narrative'.

***

LINK on Jun 11

Link to the refutation of ‘MMT: economics for an economy focused on meeting the needs of most people’: Richard Murphy: the MMT fraudster dressed up as realist

***
REPLY to Noah Way on Jun 12

You say: “Trashing MMT because of the human condition is absurd. What we need is a system that can survive and enhance the human condition.”

The point at issue is NOT thrashing MMT but to answer the question: What is wrong with MMT?

The answer is:
(i) MMT is proto-scientific garbage, i.e. provably false, i.e. materially/formally inconsistent.
(ii) MMT is a political fraud, i.e. it pretends to promote the cause of the ninety-nine-percenters but de facto promotes the cause of the one-percenters.
(iii) MMTers are scientifically incompetent.
(iv) MMTers constantly violate scientific standards/ethics.

The remaining practical question with regard to MMT is how can folks like Murphy, Kelton, Mitchell, Mosler, Tcherneva, Wray, Fullwiler, Forstater, Kaboub, Pettifor, Keen, Tymoigne, Willingham, Grumbine, Ehnts, peterc, Hickey, Calgacus, Konrad, Anderson, Way, Deficit Owls, The Pileus, duncanpoundcake, consbyname, and many other soapbubblers be convinced to leave economics for good and thus to effectively contribute to the betterment of the human condition.

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REPLY to Noah Way on Jun 12

As the saying goes: “You got to know the system if you want to change it.”

MMTers do NOT know how the economic system, i.e. the price- and profit-mechanism, works.

Here is the challenge for all soapbubblers: this is the MMT balances equation (X−M)+(G−T)+(I−S)=0, and this is the AXEC balances equation (X−M)+(G−T)+(I−S)−(Q−Yd)=0. Which one is materially and formally consistent?

It is a sure bet that you do not understand what the equations say about the systemic interrelations, that is, how the monetary economy works. #1

What makes you think that you have anything of interest to contribute to the discussion?


#1 Do NOT look up the proof here

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REPLY to Noah Way on Jun 12

Just answer two questions: Is the foundational macroeconomic balances equation (i) (X−M)+(G−T)+(I−S)=0 or (ii) (X−M)+(G−T)+(I−S)−(Q−Yd)=0 true? Can you prove your answer?

Don’t fear disgrace or embarrassment: Keynes, Post-Keynesians, and all your MMT colleagues flunked this test.

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REPLY djrichard on Jun 12

You say: “I'll put the question, how will corporations make profits in the brave future everybody is forecasting, when nobody is employed making a salary because everyone lost their job to automation and/or outsourcing? And after seeing how people respond, I'll respond that the corporate profits will come entirely from deficit spending by the Fed Gov. And that it will be sustainable.”

A sketch of the monetary economy after the demise of communism and capitalism has been given here: The Third Way: Towards the Happy Zero-Tax economy.

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REPLY to Noah Way on Jun 12

You say: “Mathematical equations don’t apply to ideologies.”

True but irrelevant because economics deals with the economic system and systems are subject to objective systemic laws. For example, the Profit Law or the Employment Law.

Ideologies are for the retarded soapbubblers of the so-called social sciences.

Aircraft get off the ground because of the laws of aerodynamics and thermodynamics. Likewise, economies get off the ground because of systemic laws and not because consumers maximize utility by choosing between strawberry and raspberry yogurt or because greedy capitalists maximize profit.

The fact is that neither capitalists, nor economists, nor ideologues, nor MMTers, nor Noah Way knows where macroeconomic profit comes from. This is the result of 200+ years of soapbubbling.

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REPLY to Noah Way on Jun 13

You say: “Only an idiot seeks to apply ‘objective systemic laws’ to human behavior.”

Very true again. Because of this, scientists apply objective systemic laws to systems. Imbeciles, on the other hand, come always up with a ‘behavioral’ explanation, e.g. the sun moves across the sky because Helios drives his golden chariot each day from East to West, or Zeus throws the thunderbolt because he is pissed off.

The subject matter of economics is the economic system, i.e. the interaction of economic variables like employment, price, profit, productivity, income, output, and so on. Human Nature/ motives/behavior/action is the subject matter of Psychology, Sociology, Anthropology, History, Political Science, Biology, Social Philosophy, Ethics and so on. #1, #2

Soapbubbling about human behavior is the chief occupation of brain-dead economists who still have not understood that economics is a systems science. As a result, these confused confusers can to this day not tell what profit is.

Macroeconomic profit does not come into existence because some humans are greedy, but because Qm≡−Sm. There is NO chance that you ever understand this simple but fundamental equation, or what the subject matter of economics is, or what science is all about. This makes you a useful coworker of the MMT snake-oil sales team.


#1 Economics is NOT about Human Nature but the economic system
#2 Economics is NOT a social science

June 10, 2018

Supply-demand-equilibrium ― employment theory as an example of proto-scientific soap bubbling

Comment on Sandwichman on ‘The Wage[s]-Lump Doctrine ― still dogma after all these years’

Blog-Reference and Blog-Reference

“In order to tell the politicians and practitioners something about causes and best means, the economist needs the true theory or else he has not much more to offer than educated common sense or his personal opinion.” (Stigum)

The fact is that economists do NOT have the true theory. This holds in particular for employment theory, and the Lump-of-Labor theory is a case in point. The lethal methodological blunder of employment theory consists in the Fallacy of Composition, i.e., the illegitimate transfer of truths that hold for one firm/market onto the economy as a whole. What the representative micro-brained economist never understood is that what is true for the molehill is not true for the universe.

Methodological conclusion: the traditional microfoundations approach is as false as one can get and has to be fully replaced by the macrofoundations approach.

The axiomatically correct macroeconomic Law of Unemployment #1 is reproduced under Graphic AXEC36. #2


From this objective-structural-systemic relationship follows inter alia:
(i) An increase in the expenditure ratio ρE leads to higher employment L or lower unemployment u (the Greek letter ρ stands for ratio).
(ii) Increasing investment expenditures I exert a positive influence on employment.
(iii) An increase in the factor cost ratio ρF≡W/PR leads to higher employment.

The complete Employment Law is a bit longer and contains, in addition, the public sector and the foreign trade sector.

Items (i) and (ii) cover the familiar arguments about how aggregate demand affects employment. Item (iii) embodies the macroeconomic price mechanism. It works such that overall employment L increases if the average wage rate W increases relative to the average price P and productivity R, and vice versa. This is the opposite of what the obsolete Supply-Demand-Equilibrium approach says. 

From this follows the rules of effective employment policy. In the unemployment situation (with ρE and I given), the scientifically enlightened Legitimate Sovereign sets the parameters as follows: price increase zero and wage increase greater than productivity increase. This increases employment for a while. Afterward: price increase zero and wage increase equal to productivity increase. This stabilizes the economy at full employment.

Mentally retarded economists do, after 200+ years, still not know how the price and profit mechanism works. The one thing that they have brought to perfection in all this time is the trick of blowing bigger and bigger communicative soap bubbles. #4 Not to forget, economists reward themselves with the Nobel Prize for Proto-Scientific Soap Bubbling a.k.a. Economic Sciences.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#1 NAIRU, wage-led growth, and Samuelson’s Dyscalculia
#2 Keynes’ Employment Function and the Gratuitous Phillips Curve Disaster
#3 Graphic AXEC36 Structural-systemic Phillips Curve
#4 Economics: communication without content

For details of the big picture, see cross-references Employment/Phillips Curve.

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REPLY to Sandwichman on Jun 11

The Walrasian Auctioneer is not unemployed but dead. But Sandwichman is still soap-bubbling.

I wonder if you ever realize that the employment theory is false for 200+ years and that the only worthwhile issue in economics is how to abandon soap bubbling and start with serious scientific work.

For a start, you could try to empirically refute the axiomatically correct Law of Employment / Unemployment.

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REPLY to Sandwichman, Barkley Rosser on Jun 12

Your dialogue about the Walrasian Auctioneer is a wonderful demonstration of soapbubbling.

The Walrasian Auctioneer is known since its invention as one of the most idiotic constructions in the history of cargo cult science. You are the last persons who remember him.

The empirical refutation of the axiomatically correct Law of Employment/Unemployment means the application of econometrics, which in turn means: “the quantitative analysis of actual economic phenomena based on the concurrent development of theory and observation, related by appropriate methods of inference.” (Wikipedia)

The Employment Law defines the set screws for policymakers#1 who are institutionalized differently in different national monetary economies and are lumped together under the heading of Legitimate Sovereign.

Stop soap bubbling, try to empirically refute the Employment Law. You are in for a big surprise.


#1 The set screws of overall and individual employment

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REPLY to Sandwichman, Barkley Rosser on Jun 13

The London gold market is micro/partial; the Auctioneer refers to general equilibrium and overall simultaneous market coordination. The Auctioneer has been a construct of breathtaking idiocy from the very first moment, and this means a lot in view of the hereditary delirium of the representative economist who did not get out of the silly Lump-of-Labor Fallacy in 200+ years.

Why do Sandwichman and you not simply quit economics and soap bubble amicably about real-world facts like cow flatulence, the assassination of JFK, or the death of Yeshua bin Yusuf?

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REPLY to Barkley Rosser, Sandwichman  on Jun 13

Stop soap-bubbling about the Auctioneer and cow flatulence and simply try to empirically refute the axiomatically correct Employment Law. It is never too late to do serious scientific work.

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REPLY to Barkley Rosser on Jun 13

Of course, soap bubblers cannot test the Employment Law. But since it consists exclusively of measurable variables, every econometrician who has tested the Phillips Curve already has a good part of the data for testing the macroeconomic Employment Law. #1

Looking forward to the grand showdown.


#1 Keynes’ Employment Function and the Gratuitous Phillips Curve Disaster

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REPLY to ANC Driver, Tom Hickey, Calgacus on Jun 13

The Legitimate Sovereign can realize any employment level by applying the Employment Law. This is NOT AT ALL a question of left-wing/right-wing. The Employment Law defines exactly the set screws for policymakers.#1 It is much like taking an aircraft off the ground.

Needless to emphasize that soap-bubbling economists have never taken anything off the ground. Just the opposite. #2


#1 The set screws of overall and individual employment
#2 Mass unemployment: The joint failure of orthodox and heterodox economics

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REPLY to Tom Hickey on Jun 14

You say: “Institutionalization is an issue involving political economy and politics.”

No, not at all. Institutionalization involves two things: the Legitimate Sovereign and Science. The actual problem with regard to economic institutions is that there is neither.

There are political economics and theoretical economics. The main differences are: (i) The goal of political economics is to successfully push an agenda, and the goal of theoretical economics is to successfully explain how the actual economy works. (ii) In political economics, anything goes; in theoretical economics, the scientific standards of material and formal consistency are observed.

Economics claims to be a science, but it is NOT. Theoretical economics (= science) had been hijacked from the very beginning by political economists (= agenda pushers). Political economics has produced NOTHING of scientific value in the last 200+ years. #1 Employment Theory is provably false, Profit Theory is provably false, Monetary Theory is provably false, and so on.

MMT, too, is proto-scientific garbage. And it is too obvious that it has been hijacked by political agenda pushers. #2

Economics, understood as a science, is supposed to develop the true theory. The true economic theory tells one how the economic system works. This knowledge is needed to realize the goals that have been set in the political sphere by the Legitimate Sovereign.

Imagine this situation: The Legitimate Sovereign ― in current understanding = We The People ― has extensively discussed whether to fly to paradise on Christmas Island or to paradise on Easter Island. The decision has been Christmas Island, and in order to make things happen, a group of people has been tasked to build the aircraft. Obviously, these scientists and engineers need a lot of knowledge about materials and physical laws. What these folks need not at all is an opinion on whether Christmas or Easter Island is the better destination. What these folks need indeed is scientific competence.

What has happened in economics is that economists have, since Adam Smith/Karl Marx, been permanently involved in the political discussion and have spent neither time, nor talent, nor brains to figure out how the monetary economy works. What we now have is incompetent scientists from Krugman to Varoufakis to Kelton to Mitchell and so on, from the right wing to the left wing and back, who are fully occupied in pushing some agenda.

The vast majority of economists have entirely lost any scientific instincts, which would tell them to keep science and politics strictly apart, and have joined the crowd of clowns and useful idiots in the political Circus Maximus. #3

MMTers are no exception. The whole discussion about the Job Guarantee is just political soap-bubbling that lacks sound scientific foundations. It is only good as a smokescreen to obscure the political agenda of money-making for the one-percenters. Economics has degenerated into a plain political fraud.

Make science great again! Throw all economists out! Start with MMTers! Take Tom Hickey first!


#1 Economics has arrived at the bottom of the proto-scientific shithole
#2 Richard Murphy: the MMT fraudster dressed up as realist
#3 For details of the big picture, see cross-references Political Economics

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REPLY to Tom Hickey on Jun 14

You say: “I am not an economist. My PhD is in philosophy. If I were an economist, I would argue economics with you, but I don’t operate outside my field.”

As a philosopher, you have studied The Republic and what Plato has said about stories “… which are now in use [but] must be discarded.”

“Of what tales are you speaking? he said. …
Those, I said, which are narrated by Homer and Hesiod, and the rest of the poets, who have ever been the great story-tellers of mankind.
But which stories do you mean, he said; and what fault do you find with them?
A fault which is most serious, I said; the fault of telling a lie, and, what is more, a bad lie.”

Philosophers have been known for 2300+ years to be committed to truth. They introduced the distinction between doxa=opinion and episteme=knowledge. You say you are a philosopher who operates strictly within your field.

How does it come, then, that you promote on this blog economists who are political storytellers, incompetent scientists, and who violate scientific standards/ethics on a daily basis?

Here are five political story-tellers/agenda-pushers who pose as scientists and censor and manipulate their blogs/Twitter accounts:
Bill Mitchell,
Stephanie Kelton,
Jason Smith,
Lars Syll,
Richard Murphy.#1

You know quite well that the foundational MMT balances equation is provably false. This is sufficient for the refutation of MMT. Refutation means that MMT has no sound scientific basis. It’s just storytelling and political agenda-pushing. That is NOT what scientists are supposed to do.

What kind of philosopher are you? Who awarded you a degree? Trump University? And why do you so evidently operate outside your field?


#1 For details/proofs, see cross-references MMT

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REPLY to Tom Hickey on Jun 14

You need not study philosophy, what the absolute novice in every marketing and PR department and every half-witted journalist can tell you, even in the state of near-coma, is the mantra: Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World.

After all, already Plato was aware of “the great story-tellers of mankind”. The point is, though, that Plato was not directly enthusiastic about “telling a lie” or “a bad lie” or what we today call fake news or propaganda or disinformation, or cargo cult science. #1, #2, #3

Yes: “He [Shackle] could see that this [marginalist economics] was, in fact, a form of pseudo-secular religion… and that struck him, as it strikes others, as absurd.”

Yes, and because it IS absurd, marginalist economics will now be thrown out of science together with Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism, Pluralism, MMT, and the fake philosopher Tom Hickey.

Note that economists award themselves with the “Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel” which is a deception of the general public. Economics has never been more than storytelling. Economics is the worst embarrassment in the history of modern science. And MMT and Tom Hickey are part of it.


#1 Economics is not a science, not a religion, but proto-scientific rubbish
#2 Economics: communication without content
#3 Economics: stories, narratives, and disinformation

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REPLY to Barkley Rosser on Jun 15

You say: “I just reread your supposed ‘Employment Law’.”

Fine, but obviously, you still do not understand how things work. There are TWO uses of the equation.

(i) For testing, one simply feeds the historical data in and looks at how the Law fits. Needless to say that inflation has not been zero in the past, but if the Law is true, it fits perfectly with the historically given rates of inflation/deflation and employment, and all the other variables.

(ii) For achieving his employment goal, the policymaker uses the equation as a tool that tells him how to set the independent variables on the right-hand side while the target value of employment is entered at the left-hand side.

Testing the Employment Law is, in principle, not different from testing the Phillips Curve. The beauty of the test is that the Employment Law (= structural Phillips Curve) is confirmed and the silly behavioral Phillips Curve is refuted.

Testing can be done and will be done ― not by soap bubblers, though, that much has always been clear, but by scientists. In the meantime, you can tell me more about your fields of expertise ― cow flatulence and proto-scientific methodology.

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REPLY to Tom Hickey on Jun 15

You say: “What many if not most that think they understand this but have not studied a relevant discipline don’t understand is that ‘the world’ is based on a narrative aka story and myth.”

Everybody understands this and knows that people are born, told some idiotic stories in kindergarten, are later on guided in their neurotic behavior by it, eventually become philosophers/journalists/bloggers and earn a living by pushing narratives, tell their children the updated idiotic stories, and then go as stupid out of ‘the world’ as they have come in. This is how culture and communication work in Plato’s Cave.

The scientific realm is different. Science is about true/false with truth well-defined as material and formal consistency: “Research is, in fact, a continuous discussion of the consistency of theories: formal consistency insofar as the discussion relates to the logical cohesion of what is asserted in joint theories; material consistency insofar as the agreement of observations with theories is concerned.” (Klant)

The political realm and the scientific realm run on fundamentally different principles. And this is why they have to be kept strictly apart. The mixing of politics and science inevitably ruins science, as everybody can know from the history of political economics, which has produced NOTHING of scientific value in the last 200+ years. #1

Political economics was and is, in the best case, brain-dead soap-bubbling and in the worst case, outright fraud.

MMT falls into the latter category: it pushes the narrative of the benefits of MMT policy for the ninety-nine percenters through all media. The scientific fact is that the MMT selling proposition, ‘print, spend, and don’t worry about public debt’, with the same necessity as the First Law of Thermodynamics translates into Public Deficit = Private Profit and therefore benefits the one-percenters.

So, MMT is clearly what the philosopher Plato called a “bad lie” and what the philosopher Tom Hickey euphemizes as narrative, covers with folk-psychological soap bubbling, and actively promotes by applying the old Huxley/Orwell recipes of political brain-washing.

#1 The irrelevance of economics
#2 Economists: political trolls for 200+ years

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REPLY to Tom Hickey on Jun 14

You say: “You are now arguing outside your field unless you are credentialed in philosophy, especially logic and epistemology.”

Before pestering the world with your good advice and talking nonsense about credentials, take a basic methodology course on YouTube. #1 Note, in particular, that science is NOT about credentials but about logical/empirical proof.

You seem to have an extremely short attention span. You present yourself as a philosopher who does not operate outside his field and then blathers about theoretical economics and political economics and political science and sociology, and mass psychology.

You say: “In political science and politics, a fundamental problem is that even when the ‘true theory’ is known, it is not automatically adopted but must be passed into policy (law) and that involves politics.”

Wake up, this is NOT the problem, for the simple reason that economists do not have the true theory. The major approaches ― Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism ― are mutually contradictory, axiomatically false, materially/formally inconsistent, and all got the pivotal economic concept of profit wrong. Economic policy guidance has had NO sound scientific foundations for 200+ years. Nothing to adopt, neither automatically nor otherwise.

Get it, there is NO true theory in economics, economists are NOT scientists but agenda pushers and useful political idiots.

Here is good advice for you: read what the great methodologist and economist J. S. Mill has said about the separation of science and politics: “A scientific observer or reasoner, merely as such, is not an adviser for practice. His part is only to show that certain consequences follow from certain causes, and that to obtain certain ends, certain means are the most effectual. Whether the ends themselves are such as ought to be pursued, and if so, in what cases and to how great a length, it is no part of his business as a cultivator of science to decide, and science alone will never qualify him for the decision.”

Repeat: NO part of his business. The political decisions are made in the political sphere by the Legitimate Sovereign, and they are NOT AT ALL the business of folks who should have figured out in the last 200+ years how the monetary economy works but failed to do so.

As a philosopher, you have NO credentials to dabble in economic policy or to promote MMT. All the more so, as you have obviously NOT realized some basics about what you are promoting:
(i) MMT is proto-scientific garbage, i.e., provably false, i.e., materially/formally inconsistent.
(ii) MMT is a political fraud, i.e., it pretends to promote the cause of the ninety-nine percenters but de facto promotes the cause of the one-percenters.
(iii) MMTers are scientifically incompetent.
(iv) MMTers constantly violate scientific standards/ethics.

You say you are a philosopher who does not operate outside his field. Very good! Get out of economics, we already have an oversupply of soap bubblers, or what Joan Robinson called the ‘throng of superfluous economists’.


#1 YouTube Feynman on Scientific Method

"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science."

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REPLY to ANC Driver on Jun 16

You recommend Collingwood’s Economics as a Philosophical Science as follows: “Seeing as we are talking of economics, science, and philosophy all in the same cave I thought I’d share probably one of the best ‘short’… pieces I have ever read and which for its comparative size has probably had the greatest impact on me personally in understanding first and foremost, what an economic activity actually is, second, that we take the ability to engage in economic activities for granted, and third, that we cannot mix morals with economics.”

Realize:
  • You are putting economics, science, and philosophy into one hat.
  • This is illegitimate because economics and philosophy are what Feynman called cargo cult science.
  • The fundamental blunder of economics is that it defines itself as a social science.
  • The subject matter of economics is the economic system, i.e., the interaction of economic variables like employment, price, profit, productivity, income, output, and so on.
  • Human Nature/motives/behavior/action is the subject matter of Psychology, Sociology, Anthropology, History, Political Science, Biology, Social Philosophy, Ethics, and so on.
  • As far as economics deals with Human Nature/motives/behavior/action, it is Political Economics.
  • Political Economics has achieved nothing of scientific value in the last 200+ years.
  • Political Economists are failed/fake scientists.
  • Political Economics is since Adam Smith/Karl Marx a smokescreen for agenda pushing.
  • Political agenda pushers, no matter how they present themselves, are either stupid or corrupt or both and will therefore never be accepted in the community of scientists.
  • Economics had been hijacked from the very beginning by agenda pushers. This aberration has to be reversed. In methodological terms, economics needs a Paradigm Shift.
Collingwood writes in the introduction: “The thesis here to be advanced, then, is that there is a special type of action, … that this utilitarian or economic type of action is the fundamental fact with which all economic science is concerned; …”

No, this exactly is the Social Science Fallacy. Economics as a science is NOT concerned with how people behave but with how the economic system behaves. There are systemic laws that can be objectively determined, but economists have, to this da,y failed to figure them out. Instead, they were very successful in producing a breathtaking heap of peer-reviewed proto-scientific garbage.

Time to acknowledge that political economists had much support from retarded social philosophers like Collingwood and Tom Hickey. Also, time to properly separate science/theoretical economics from politics, soapbox economics, agenda-pushing, philosophy, and all the other cargo cult sciences.

Politics has to be determined in the political sphere by the Legitimate Sovereign. The political sphere and the scientific sphere have to be separated. After 200+ years of failure, economists are supposed to figure out how the economic system works. Only then can they credibly claim to be of assistance in the realization of the Legitimate Sovereign’s objective, that is, the Good Society.

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REPLY to Tom Hickey on Jun 16

You say: “Given contemporary conditions, that would seem to involve instituting full employment now, since it is not only possible but simple by following MMT analysis, theory, and policy based on it. In fact, as Calgacus has pointed out, the MMT JG would begin breaking the back of modern capitalism by increasing labor power. … What needs to happen is that the capital/labor share ratio has to be shifted in favor of workers.”

Take notice that there is Xmas economics where everybody writes down a list of their wishes. Your priorities go roughly as follows: full employment, technological innovation, increasing productivity, increasing leisure, and a more equitable distribution.

This list makes you a very likable philosopher. Not many people will contradict you, but probably add such things as environmental protection and affordable health care.

In order to realize this program, you need to know how the monetary economy works. Your problem is that you don’t. For example, you recommend MMT/JG without realizing that MMT’s money-creation/deficit-spending makes distribution progressively more unequal.#1 You say that you want to better the distributional situation of the ninety-nine percenters, but your recommendations make matters worse.

The economist’s business is NOT to write down a wish list but to realize the goals that have been authorized by the Legitimate Sovereign. This requires scientific knowledge about how the monetary economy works. This knowledge is embodied in the systemic laws of the monetary economy. You cannot achieve full employment (however defined) if you don’t know the Employment Law.#2

To soap bubble about flying above the clouds is futile. It is the folks who have figured out the laws of aerodynamics and thermodynamics who get things off the ground. Analogous in economics.

As Marx said: “Philosophers and politicians have hitherto only popularized various wish lists; the point is to know how to realize them.”


#1 MMT: So-called progressives as trailblazers for Trumponomics
#2 This brings us back to the first post.

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REPLY to Tom Hickey on Jun 17

Tom Hickey summarizes: “I have said that new vision is needed and proposed a framework in terms of one of the enduring questions of Western intellectual history, which I believe can only be dealt with holistically by incorporating non-Western traditions. That question is the one that occupied the ancient Greeks: what does it mean to live a good life as an individual in a good society? That has a long tradition in terms of ethics, action theory, and social and political thought.”

Yes, the political/philosophical discussion about the Good Society goes back to the beginning of civilization.

Tom Hickey tells the story of how he came after a spiritual quest through Western and non-Western history to see that the society we live in is mentally deranged and institutionally dysfunctional, and that MMT offers a solution, at least for the economic causes of the malaise.

“Realistically, that is where we need to start strategically. What MMT proposes is feasible politically.” Tom Hickey’s narrative explains how he became an MMT agenda pusher.

When one takes the political glasses off and puts the scientific glasses on, one sees a quite different reality:
• Tom Hickey never did serious science.
• It is the MMT social goals that appeal to him.
• He never realized that the economic theory that underlies MMT policy guidance is provably false.
• He promotes MMT for political reasons and does not really care about its scientific validity.

So, Tom Hickey stands firmly in the tradition of Political Economy, which abuses ‘science’ from Adam Smith onward as a credibility/authority-enhancer. For agenda pushers, the political narrative always comes first: “A genuine inquirer aims to find out the truth of some question, whatever the color of that truth. ... A pseudo-inquirer seeks to make a case for the truth of some proposition(s) determined in advance. There are two kinds of pseudo-inquirer, the sham and the fake. A sham reasoner is concerned, not to find out how things really are, but to make a case for some immovably-held preconceived conviction. A fake reasoner is concerned, not to find out how things really are, but to advance himself by making a case for some proposition to the truth-value of which he is indifferent.” (Haack)

Tom Hickey recounts MMT history: “Warren Mosler has set forth a range of proposals for implementing a policy based on MMT principles. The range is not complete and many other issues need to be addressed that MMT hasn’t yet. As the MMT have said, there are fewer than a dozen of us, which is an improvement on the original 3 + 1 twenty years ago ― Warren Mosler, Bill Mitchell and Randy Wray, along with grad student Pavlina Tcherneva.”

This is what MMT looks like to me. The trained economist and hedge fund founder Warren Mosler stumbled one day upon Post-Keynesianism/MMT and found that it contained a lot of sound arguments against mainstream monetary theory and some good social planks for a political platform. Warren Mosler developed the narrative of how the fiat money system can be used to solve most socio-economic problems. As a marketing buff, he realized that Wall Street types have a credibility problem with selling social policy. And this resulted in strengthening the sales team with caring Stephanie Kelton and the spiritually enlightened philosopher Tom Hickey.

I have no problem with agenda pushers promoting their stuff in the political Circus Maximus. And I have no problem with Wall Street’s Warren Mosler running for the Virgin Islands' governor. The lethal flaws of MMT are:
• The scientific part of MMT is provably false.
• MMT policy guidance has no sound scientific foundations.
• MMT is a political fraud, not substantially different from Neoclassics, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism.

The mixing of politics and science always corrupts science. This starts with Smith/Marx and continues over the whole right/left spectrum from Hayek, Keynes, Friedman, Krugman, Keen, Mosler, to Tom Hickey.

Let’s get rid of all of them.

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REPLY  to Calgacus on Jun 17

You say: “Not seeing fallacies in some reasoning that MMT is welfare for the rich is not the same as there not being a fallacy, and there is. A really easy way for anyone to quickly see that the reasoning must be fallacious (formally inconsistent) is the historical fact that applied MMT has everywhere led to progressively more equal distributions of wealth and income, not the opposite. … (By applied MMT I mean the New Deal, WWII in the US & UK, the postwar era practically everywhere & for a few countries even afterward. Pretty much the closer to MMT / genuine Keynes ― the better for income/ wealth distribution.)”

Note that there are two issues here: (i) the classical macroeconomic issue of the relative magnitudes of profits and wages [To determine the laws which regulate this distribution, is the principal problem in Political Economy (Ricardo)] and (ii), the issue of the distribution of wages among workers and of profits among firms. I have dealt with both issues in working papers#1, #2 and in blog posts. #3, #4

It is pretty obvious that economists from Smith/Ricardo via Keynes to MMT never understood what macroeconomic profit is and as a consequence, thoroughly messed up Distribution Theory.

I know for sure that you don’t understand what macroeconomic profit is. Therefore, it is beyond your means to say anything sensible about distribution.

The axiomatically correct Profit Law for the economy as a whole is given as Qm≡Yd+(I−Sm)+(G−T)+(X−M), which reduces to Qm=G−T for Yd, I, Sm, X, M = 0. The reduced Profit Law says that the monetary profit of the business sector Qm is equal to the deficit G−T of the public sector, in a nutshell: Public Deficit = Private Profit.

Now, MMT is essentially money-creation/deficit spending. Because of this, it is correct to say that MMT progressively worsens the distribution. #5

However, for anyone who can read an equation, it is obvious that the positive effect of a government deficit G−T on macroeconomic profit Qm can at any time be counteracted by the negative effects of the other variables, i.e., Yd, I, Sm, X, M.

Whether this has been the case during the “New Deal, WWII in the US & UK, the postwar era practically everywhere” can be established only by testing the complete equation.

There is no way around it; in order to make progress with Distribution Theory, the Profit Law must be tested with the data for the historical time periods you mentioned.

As far as I know, the axiomatically correct Profit Law has never been tested. Your assertion: “Pretty much the closer to MMT / genuine Keynes ― the better for income/ wealth distribution.” is pretty much hanging in midair.#6


#1 The Profit Theory is False Since Adam Smith. What About the True Distribution Theory?
#2 Essentials of Constructive Heterodoxy: Profit
#3 Profit and the decline of labor’s nominal share
#4 Profit and distribution: a primer
#5 Keynes, Lerner, MMT, Trump and exploding profit
#6 Keynesianism as ultimate profit machine