“Economists will look you dead in the face and call this science.” (Jack Meyer) Yes, this is the sorry state of economics. It's scientifically worthless — only good for inconclusive political blather. But they award themselves the EconNobel for 'economic sciences' (AXEC136j ⇓). Science is binary true/false and NOTHING in between. Non-science is the swamp between true and false where ‘nothing is clear and everything is possible’ (Keynes). The distinction between science and non-science corresponds to the ancient Greeks’ distinction between episteme (= knowledge) and doxa (= opinion). Methodologically, economists are 2400 years behind the curve. The fact is that about ninety-nine per cent of people are satisfied with opinion, and only one per cent is devoted to episteme. Economists do NOT belong to the latter group. Economics is a cargo cult science, and economists are fake scientists, and the EconNobel is a fraud. When they've used all their arguments, the scientifically clueless hit the social media emergency brake and retreat to an etiquette class: “Personal insults are best left in the schoolyard. Nor do they contribute to the persuasiveness of your derivative arguments. You are Blocked.” (Roger Farmer, #EconBlocker) The state of economics is this: there is political economics and theoretical economics. The founding fathers called themselves political economists; that is, they left no doubt that their main business was agenda pushing. Economists never got out of political economics. In other words, theoretical economics (= science) ultimately could not emancipate itself from political economics (= agenda-pushing). This is why economics never rose above the level of a proto- or cargo cult science. There are the hard rocks of true or false and the swamp between them. The swamp is the natural habitat of morons, agenda pushers, confused confusers, incompetent scientists, political economists, status-quo inertionalists, commonsensers, and anti-scientists. Political economists are natural-born swampies. In marked contrast to scientists who drive the question under discussion to the point of a clear-cut decision between true or false, neither the orthodox nor the heterodox swampy has a genuine interest in a definite outcome but seeks to keep matters in the swamp of inconclusiveness. Swampiness is what Popper called an immunizing stratagem because: “Another thing I must point out is that you cannot prove a vague theory wrong.” (Feynman) Therefore, the cargo cult scientist is mainly occupied with producing a methodological smoke screen that consists of vague concepts, anything-goes, pluralism of false theories, alleged complexity, ontological uncertainty, unreliable data, faux humility, the post-modern replacement of true theory by political narrative, and a veritable artillery barrage of silly excuses. The beauty of the swamp is that logical and empirical failure is inconsequential.” (AXEC) For more details, see What is so great about cargo cult science? or, How economists learned to stop worrying about failure https://t.co/VoQJMa4CUZ From the beginning, economics has not been a science but silly political agenda pushing. There has not been genuine scientific progress since the Enlightenment, only changes in propaganda. Watch the sorry contemporary academic discussion. They're just turning over the scientific dung heap without ever arriving at a result that satisfies the most elementary scientific principle: “In economics we should strive to proceed, wherever we can, exactly according to the standards of the other, more advanced, sciences, where it is not possible, once an issue has been decided, to continue to write about it as if nothing had happened.” (Morgenstern, 1941) Economics has defined itself as a social science and accordingly has been based on subjective/behavioral assumptions/axioms. This is the methodological ur-mistake. The major approaches (Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism, and their derivatives) are mutually contradictory, axiomatically false, and materially/formally inconsistent. They all got profit wrong. When the subject's foundational concepts are inconsistent, the entire analytical superstructure is scientifically worthless. The minimum requirement in science is logical consistency. Economists never rose above confused blather. As far as an approach is formalized, economists apply the wrong math. However: “The problem is not just to say that something might be wrong, but to replace it by something ― and that is not so easy.” (Feynman) To finally become a science, economics needs a Paradigm Shift. The current group of academic non-scientists will not survive this.
— AXEC (@EgmontHandtke) November 2, 2026
AXEC: New Foundations of Economics
This blog connects to the AXEC Project which applies a superior method of economic analysis. The following comments have been posted on selected blogs as catalysts for the ongoing Paradigm Shift. The comments are brought together here for information. The full debates are directly accessible via the Blog-References. Scrap the lot and start again―that is what a Paradigm Shift is all about. Time to make economics a science.
November 2, 2026
Occasional X: Clueless economists / Science (CCCXCII)
November 1, 2026
Occasional X: Paradigm Shift (CXXIX)
“Yes. General Equilibrium Theory is a language that enforces internal consistency. Like individual rationality: GE alone is irrefutable. That does not mean it is worthless: Far from it.” (Roger Farmer) Yes, consistency is important: “Research is, in fact, a continuous discussion of the consistency of theories: formal consistency insofar as the discussion relates to the logical cohesion of what is asserted in joint theories; material consistency insofar as the agreement of observations with theories is concerned.” (Klant) However, each Paradigm stands or falls with its premises: “When the premises are certain, true, and primary, and the conclusion formally follows from them, this is demonstration, and produces scientific knowledge of a thing.” (Aristotle, Analytica) J. S. Mill was perfectly clear about the starting problem: “What are the propositions which may reasonably be received without proof? That there must be some such propositions all are agreed, since there cannot be an infinite series of proof, a chain suspended from nothing. But to determine what these propositions are, is the opus magnum of the more recondite mental philosophy.” The problem with modern macroeconomics is that it is axiomatically false. Economics is failed/fake science. The microfoundations approach was doomed from the outset. The Founding Fathers defined economics as a social science, and accordingly, it has been based on subjective/behavioral assumptions/axioms. This has been the methodological ur-mistake. For example, here are the Walrasian axioms: “HC1 economic agents have preferences over outcomes; HC2 agents individually optimize subject to constraints; HC3 agent choice is manifest in interrelated markets; HC4 agents have full relevant knowledge; HC5 observable outcomes are coordinated, and must be discussed with reference to equilibrium states.” (Weintraub) The methodological mistake is that economists put the behavioral assumption of constrained optimization and equilibrium into the premises. This is a petitio principii, but economists do not know what this means. Stupidity makes faithful worshipers: “And so — faithful to the theory's conceptual cornerstones and hoping against all hope that the unthinkable may still be achieved (i.e., a satisfactory theory of the price mechanism) — the tormented upholders of the validity of the paradigmatic core of economic equilibrium theory appear singularly reluctant to face the problem of comparing expectations and results and assessing the consistency of the theory.” (Ingrao et al., 1990, p. 346) Although microfoundations is methodologically a false concept, economists repeat it nonetheless: “In economics we should strive to proceed, wherever we can, exactly according to the standards of the other, more advanced, sciences, where it is not possible, once an issue has been decided, to continue to write about it as if nothing had happened.” (Morgenstern, 1941, pp. 369-370) The way forward is to reconstruct economics entirely without the concepts of constrained optimization, rational expectations, equilibrium, and other NONENTITIES. In methodology, this is called a Paradigm Shift: “There is another alternative: to formulate a completely new research program and conceptual approach. As we have seen, this is often spoken of, but there is still no indication of what it might mean.” (Ingrao et al., 1990, p. 362) It means, first, that legacy economics goes down the scientific drain for good. It means, second, to go forward and perform the Paradigm Shift (⇓ AXEC113i). It means, finally, to bury microeconomists in the darkest corner of the Flat-Earth cemetery. Economics is a genuine system science, not a social science. Economists have gotten it wrong since the Founding Fathers. The EconNobel for 'economic sciences' is a scientific fraud. Roger Farmer is a retarded blatherer.
— AXEC (@EgmontHandtke) November 1, 2026
Occasional X: How it works (DXXXII)
Why the Worst Get on Top is the title of Ch. 10 in Friedrich Hayek's book The Road to Serfdom. In the free-market economy, profit may provide a strong incentive to corruption/organized crime. According to quasi-Darwinian logic, the most corrupt survives. The proof is given in table AXEC221b ⇓. Microfoundations are methodologically false; therefore, the elementary production-consumption economy is given with three macroeconomic axioms in lines 1, 4, 7. The business sector is split into two identical firms in lines 1-2, 4-5, 7-8. Under the initial analytical conditions of market-clearing and budget-balancing, this yields the price P in line 16. For a start, the price is the dependent variable here. In the initial state, the price is equal to unit wage costs W/R, and equal for both firms. The workers get the whole product O. The profit Qm for both firms and the business sector as a whole is zero. Now, the wage rate W in firm 1 is lowered arbitrarily; otherwise, both firms are identical in every respect. As a result, the market price P decreases in line 12. The profit of firm 1 increases in line 19; firm 2 makes a loss in line 20. Total profit remains zero. The household sector as a whole still gets the whole product O, but the workers of firm 1 can buy less with their lower wage income; the workers of firm 2 can buy more with their unchanged wage rate W and a lower price P. The firm that somehow manages to pay less for the same labor input increases profit Qm. Firm 2 makes a loss and will go bankrupt if it does not also make a wage cut. As a result, firm 1 wins the race to the bottom. The workers of firm 1 cannot move to firm 2 because it no longer hires or doesn't exist any longer. This process of cross-over exploitation is inherent to capitalism and inevitably leads to higher concentration. If a firm can undercut minimum wage regulations, it can be said that the criminal firm wins and the honest firm loses. What remains in the long run is a degenerated/ corrupted free-market economy. On closer inspection, economics is revealed as the story of intra-sectoral cross-over exploitation among the firms of the business sector and among the households of the household sector. Sociologically, this means there are no classes with a common interest. Ultimately, the market is not primarily an allocation mechanism but a quasi-Darwinian selection mechanism that increases the survival chances of the corrupt and decreases them for the honest. This is why guilds have emerged historically. Basically, they are self-organized associations of the honest against the corrupt, with honor as the guiding behavioral principle. Honor was replaced with the freedom of licit/illicit profit maximisation, which favors the corrupt.
— AXEC (@EgmontHandtke) November 1, 2026
Occasional X: How it works (DXXXI)
“If only 4% of gains went to innovators and we got so much innovation, what if property rights were tightened? What if they could appropriate 5% instead? How much more innovation would we get?” (Vincent Geloso) Innovators and creative geniuses are the most exploited group in the free-market system. Business has captured the real wealth creators. As a rule of thumb, not those who create and ultimately enhance the productivity of the economic system get wealthy, but those who employ or sponsor them — or simply steal their ideas. Of course, the group/generations of innovators and creative geniuses deserve 100 percent of the gains. How could they appropriate it? For details, see How it works (DXXX) https://t.co/ibUuwn8flm
— AXEC (@EgmontHandtke) November 1, 2026
Occasional X: How it works (DXXX)
“Generations of students learned economics through the Samuelson and Nordhaus textbook. But my favorite article of his is another one: 'Schumpeterian Profits in the American Economy: Theory and Measurement,' from 2004. For every 100 euros of value that an innovator creates, they keep just a little over 2. We get the other 98. … It's worth remembering this whenever someone proposes heavily taxing the fortunes of entrepreneurs, as if they were a burden on society. The innovator already keeps a minimal slice of the value they create. Taxing that slice yields little and puts everything else at risk.” (Pedro Santa Clara) The obvious swindle is to verbally equate innovators and entrepreneurs. They are as different as can be. Innovators and creative geniuses are the most exploited group in the free-market system. Business has captured the real wealth creators. As a rule of thumb, not those who create and ultimately enhance the productivity of the economic system get eventually wealthy, but those who employ or sponsor them — or simply steal their ideas. The real creative genius Tesla died poor, with a charity from the firm he helped to create and prosper.‡ In the end, the royalties go elsewhere. “Nordhaus wanted to know how much of the value created by innovation stays with the innovator. … The answer: about 2.2%. The rest went to society, especially to consumers, in the form of lower prices and better products.” (Pedro Santa Clara) Innovators and creative geniuses cannot be presented as the heroes of the free-market system. They enhance the productivity of a firm, but the enhanced profits are taken by the firm's owners. That scientists/inventors work for firms is a historical accident and in NO way intrinsic to science. To the contrary. Genuine scientists, for example, are fed up with working under the direction of a management with entirely different incentives or constantly begging for funding from the oligarchy. Seen from the perspectives of merit and the freedom of science, this is as perverse as it gets — in any case for basic research. Time for a new business model ⇒ A rough business plan for science https://t.co/fvOOBCrRgV Toward the New Academy https://t.co/4lOOZdZkox ‡ Sources “In early 1891, George Westinghouse explained his financial difficulties to Tesla in stark terms, saying that, if he did not meet the demands of his lenders, he would no longer be in control of Westinghouse Electric and Tesla would have to 'deal with the bankers' to try to collect future royalties. The advantages of having Westinghouse continue to champion the motor probably seemed obvious to Tesla and he agreed to release the company from the royalty payment clause in the contract. Six years later Westinghouse purchased Tesla's patent for a lump sum payment of $216,000 as part of a patent-sharing agreement signed with General Electric ….” (Wikipedia) “At this time, Westinghouse Electric & Manufacturing Company began paying him $125 (equivalent to $3,010 in 2025) per month in addition to paying his rent. Accounts of how this came about vary. Several sources claim that Westinghouse was concerned, or possibly warned, about potential bad publicity arising from the impoverished conditions in which their former star inventor was living. The payment has been described as being couched as a 'consulting fee' to get around Tesla's aversion to accepting charity.” (Wikipedia) “J.P. Morgan stopped funding Nikola Tesla … around 1903–1904 because Tesla's project lacked a viable business model for making money.” (Google AI)
— AXEC (@EgmontHandtke) November 1, 2026
Occasional X: Clueless economists / Money (CXLXVIII)
“Why do we use money? This should be the fundamental question of a monetary economics course. Although it seems like a somewhat obvious question, the use of money is anything but trivial when we look at it analytically through the prism of economic theory; particularly the ideal models described by Walrasian general equilibrium.” (Königs) Walrasian general equilibrium is known to be proto-scientific garbage. It's the worst possible starting point for Monetary Theory. The axiomatically correct macroeconomic approach is summarized in the table below AXEC237c ⇓ . Microfoundations are methodologically false; the economic system is based on three macroeconomic axioms (lines 1-3). As a result, the market-clearing price P is analytically determined by the relationship between the quantity produced/supplied/bought O=X and the nominal demand Ec. Budget-balancing means that nominal demand is equal to income, here Ec=Yw. The labor time L washes out and plays no role in the price determination. In the monetary economy, the resulting market-clearing and budget-balancing price for a one-good economy is P=:W/R, i.e., the price is equal to unit labor costs (line 5). Profit is zero (line 11). The workers get the entire product O. In the general case of non-budget-balancing, the market-clearing price is shown in line 9. In general, nominal demand depends on income and the expenditure ratio. The expression ρE*Yw implies an income-dependent demand curve. The household sector provides the labor input L and gets the wage income Yw. There is no other income in the elementary case. At this logical point, money enters the picture in line 16. It is of no interest here how money evolved historically. Here, money is not needed for facilitating the exchange of goods, but for paying the wage bill. The households, in turn, spend their wage income on buying the consumption goods output O. Thus, money returns to the business sector. Transaction money is here provided (at zero cost, i.e., no fee, no interest) by the Central Bank in the form of fiat money. By sequencing the initially given period length of one year into months, the idealized transaction pattern is displayed in line 16 in the table below. It is assumed that the monthly income Y/12 is paid out at mid-month. In the first half of the month, the daily spending of Y/360 increases the current overdrafts of the households. At mid-month, the households change to the positive side and have current deposits of Y/24 at their disposal. This amount reduces continuously towards the end of the month. This pattern is exactly repeated over the rest of the year. So, transaction money comes from the Central Bank; it is zero at the beginning and at the end of a given period. The average quantity of transaction money depends on the transaction pattern κ, total employment L, and the wage rate W. Money is created out of nothing and returns to nothing. There is no such thing as a fixed quantity of money. Money is present and absent depending on the time frame of observation. So, the Central Bank creates the needed fiat money out of nothing according to the changing demands due to the transactions between the household and the business sector. Transaction money is determined endogenously — “that is, as a result of the interactions of other economic variables…” (Wikipedia). There is no such thing as a 'supply of money'. The wage rate W and employment L are determined in the interaction of the household and the business sector. The Central Bank simply provides the wage bill, whatever it is. The graphic reduces formally to the money axiom in line 16. In the symmetric case Ec=Yw, the average quantity of money depends on the transaction pattern κ, the wage rate W, and employment L. If employment increases, the average stock of transaction money increases. Because W and P are formally related in line 9, there also appears a statistical correlation between price and average stock of transaction money. Both depend on the expenditure ratio ρE (lines 9 and 18). The point to start with is that both the market-clearing price and the average quantity of money depend on the expenditure ratio. This indirect relationship makes it appear that there is a correlation between the quantity of money and price. However, there is no causality from M to P. Money becomes a store of value if the expenditure ratio is ρE>1. In the most elementary case, the household sector dissaves, i.e., Ec>Yw, and the business sector makes a profit Qm as shown in line 11. At the end of the period, the business sector has a stock of money at the Central Bank equal to profit Qm. And this is the point. The concept of macroeconomic profit does not appear in legacy economics. The representative economist obviously does not know that the creation of money is intimately connected with the creation of profit. In other words, they do not understand how the economic system works. For details about the axiomatically correct approach, see the working paper ⇒ The Dark-Matter Theory of Fiat Money https://t.co/0QSqFFrVUX
— AXEC (@EgmontHandtke) November 1, 2026
Occasional X: The foul spirit of political economics (CDXXII)
“RIP to an absolute lion of the field.” (Noah Kaufman) The usual abuse of obituaries for the glorification of scientifically incompetent political agenda pushers of economics as a failed/fake science. For details, see The foul spirit of political economics https://t.co/F4Vc3v2q9e
— AXEC (@EgmontHandtke) November 1, 2026