Showing posts with label Econometrics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Econometrics. Show all posts

July 12, 2019

Lars Syll ― a particularly stupid/corrupt fake scientist

Comment on Lars Syll/Imad Moosa on ‘Econometrics ― a con art with no relevance whatsoever to real world economics’

Blog-Reference

A closer look at the history of economic thought reveals that there are TWO economixes: political economics and theoretical economics. The main differences are: (i) The goal of political economics is to successfully push an agenda; the goal of theoretical economics is to successfully explain how the actual economy works. (ii) In political economics, anything goes; in theoretical economics, the scientific standards of material and formal consistency are observed.

The historical fact is that theoretical economics (= science) had been hijacked from the very beginning by political economists (= agenda pushers). Political economics has produced NOTHING of scientific value in the last 200+ years: Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism, MMT are mutually contradictory, axiomatically false, and materially/formally inconsistent. Political economists are NOT scientists but clowns/useful idiots in the political Circus Maximus. #1, #2, #3
 
Economics claims to be science and, by consequence, the economist has to uphold scientific standards. Scientific standards are well-defined since antiquity: “Research is, in fact, a continuous discussion of the consistency of theories: formal consistency insofar as the discussion relates to the logical cohesion of what is asserted in joint theories; material consistency insofar as the agreement of observations with theories is concerned.” (Klant)

Scientific knowledge is embodied in the true theory. The true theory is the human's best mental representation of reality. This defines the economist’s task: “In order to tell the politicians and practitioners something about causes and best means, the economist needs the true theory or else he has not much more to offer than educated common sense or his personal opinion.” (Stigum)

This translates into the methodological basics: logical consistency is secured by applying the axiomatic-deductive method, and empirical consistency is secured by applying state-of-the-art econometric testing.

So, there are the hard rocks of true or false, and there is the vast swamp between them. The swamp is where stupid/corrupt political economists thrive since Adam Smith/Karl Marx. Swampiness is what Popper called an immunizing stratagem because: “Another thing I must point out is that you cannot prove a vague theory wrong.” (Feynman)#4 It is, therefore, quite understandable that the political economist is mainly occupied with producing a methodological smoke screen which consists of vague concepts, anything-goes, pluralism of false theories, alleged complexity, ontological uncertainty, unreliable data, the faux humility of ‘I know that I know nothing’, and the post-modern replacement of true theory by storytelling.#5

The stupid/corrupt political agenda pushers try to defend the swamp where “nothing is clear and everything is possible” (Keynes) by arguing that the axiomatic-deductive method and state-of-art testing does not work in economics and by denouncing the adherence to the scientific method as “physics envy” and by intimating that physics is just as crappy as the so-called social sciences, i.e. “physics too is really about arbitrary and fickle social consensus”. (R. S. Mitchell)

The popular swampie arguments are

• “Economics is a social science where the behaviour of decision makers is not governed purely by economic considerations but also by social and psychological factors, which are not amenable to econometric testing. This is why no economic theory holds everywhere all the time.” (Moosa)

• “And just as Moosa, Keynes certainly did not misunderstand the crucial issues at stake in his critique of econometrics. Quite the contrary. He knew them all too well ― and was not satisfied with the validity and philosophical underpinnings of the assumptions made for applying its methods.” (Syll)

• “Tinbergen’s model assumes that all relevant factors are measurable. Keynes questions if it is possible to adequately quantify and measure things like expectations and political and psychological factors. And more than anything, he questioned ― both on epistemological and ontological grounds ― that it was always and everywhere possible to measure real-world uncertainty with the help of probabilistic risk measures.” (Syll)

• “In his critique of Tinbergen, Keynes points us to the fundamental logical, epistemological and ontological problems of applying statistical methods to a basically unpredictable, uncertain, complex, unstable, interdependent, and ever-changing social reality.” (Syll)

The lethal blunders of Lars Syll/Imad Moosa are: (i) economics is NOT a social science but a systems science, and (ii) Keynes was a political agenda pusher and cannot by any stretch of the imagination be taken seriously as a scientist. #6

Keynes famously stated in the General Theory: “Income = value of output = consumption + investment. Saving = income − consumption. Therefore saving = investment.” (p. 63) This two-liner is conceptually and logically defective because Keynes never came to grips with profit. “His Collected Writings show that he wrestled to solve the Profit Puzzle up till the semi-final versions of his GT but in the end he gave up and discarded the draft chapter dealing with it.” (Tómasson et al.)

Let this sink in: the economist Keynes NEVER understood profit, i.e., the fundamental concept of economics. Because he was too stupid for the elementary mathematics that underlies macroeconomics, the whole of Keynesian theory and methodology is proto-scientific garbage. Instead of I=S, QI−S is true with Q as macroeconomic profit (formal summary on AXEC143d).

So, Keynes got it wrong 80+ years ago, but Lars Syll/Imad Moosa have not figured it out to this day and instead blather about methodology. That’s how the swampies of political economics have been for 200+ years now: stupid or corrupt or both. Lars Syll is both.#7

All political economists have to be expelled from the sciences. This applies also to Lars Syll’s Sweden, where fake scientists/political agenda pushers are to this day rewarded with the “Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel”. What a farce: economists are the swampies that have, in 200+ years, not figured out what profit is. Neither Orthodoxy nor traditional Heterodoxy has any scientific content.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#1 Economics: failure, fake, fraud
#2 Economics: A science without scientists
#3 Economics: The greatest scientific hoax in modern times
#4 Getting out of the economics swamp
#5 The economist as storyteller
#6 Marshall and the Cambridge School of plain economic gibberish
#7 For the full-spectrum refutation of Lars Syll, see the label zLPS on AXEC

Related 'How to spot economics trolls' and 'How incompetent are economic methodologists? Very!' and 'Economics: Math is NOT the problem, scientific incompetence is'. For details of the big picture, see cross-references Political Economics/Stupidity/Corruption and cross-references Methodology and cross-references Math/Mathiness.

For more about Lars Syll, see AXECquery.
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Graphic AXEC144c


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#PointOfProof
Jul 14

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Twitter Mar 18, 2021

July 8, 2019

Asad Zaman marches with the Zeitgeist down a blind alley

Comment on Asad Zaman/Tom Hickey on ‘My Journey from Theory to Reality’

Blog-Reference

The philosopher Tom Hickey sketches the great trends of history: “Many of the traditional worldviews are embedded in a religious contexts that have become cultural. Even in secular China, President Xi is resurrecting Confucius as a cultural icon, and in the supposedly secular US, dominant religious groups are asserting influence more openly, with science itself subject to challenge when it is perceived to conflict with tradition. Asad Zaman’s post is good example of this rising trend, as well as what a highly educated person asking such questions might do about it. This process is an iteration of the historical dialectic as liberal and traditionalism interact to forge a complementary Zeitgeist that moves history forward a step.”

What are the new insights of the new Zeitgeist? “Since most fancy assumptions we make in statistics and econometrics are wrong, we need to learn how to do simple and basic inferences, which actually makes life much easier for students of the subject ― we need to teach them basic and intuitive things, not complex models and math …”

The problem with simple and intuitive things is that they regularly turned out to be false as science progressed. This is why J. S. Mill had no friendly word for the bigots and votaries of common sense: “People fancied they saw the sun rise and set, the stars revolve in circles round the pole. We now know that they saw no such thing; what they really saw was a set of appearances, equally reconcileable with the theory they held and with a totally different one. It seems strange that such an instance as this, ... , should not have opened the eyes of the bigots of common sense, and inspired them with a more modest distrust of the competency of mere ignorance to judge the conclusions of cultivated thought.”

Common sense has never been a convincing argument in the scientific sphere, but it has always been a very effective rhetorical tool in the political sphere. All religious and political fraud in the last 3000 years has been performed by telling simple stories and by appealing to elementary emotions.

Science is different. Scientific truth is defined by material and formal consistency and not by what makes life easier for students. Lazy students have not developed aircraft and life-saving heart surgery. Neither have retarded political economists produced anything of scientific value. Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism, and MMT are provably false. Economics is not a body of certain knowledge but a heap of inconsistent opinions.

Asad Zaman resumes: “Regarding social, political and economic thought, many if not most of the foremost authorities equate economic liberalism with Western capitalism as the dominant mode of production and also view political liberalism in the form of representative democracy being determined by capitalism as economic liberalism.”

Obviously, liberalism and democracy are political concepts or ideologies. They have nothing to do with science. Economics as a science does NOT deal with ideologies but with how the economic system works. Political agenda pushers like Adam Smith or Karl Marx cannot, by any stretch of the imagination, be accepted as scientists. They were nothing but brain-dead political storytellers.

Asad Zaman is correct in his criticism of political economics. It is fake science. However, as long as he teaches his students “basic and intuitive things” economics will not rise above the proto-scientific level.#2 To replace one BS with another BS does not count as scientific progress.

The macroeconomic Profit Law reads Q≡Yd+(I−S)+(G−T)+(X−M), and it holds for Capitalism, Communism, and Socialism independently of whether the dominant belief is Islamic, Christian, Hinduistic, Confucian, Atheistic, or Pagan. Science is universal.

History tells one that human progress comes alone from science and neither from religious beliefs nor from political economics nor from philosophical Zeitgeist blather.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#1 Why J. S. Mill had no friendly word for the bigots and votaries of common sense
#2 Zamanomics

November 8, 2018

Economics should never be a substitute for thinking

Comment on Lars Syll on ‘Econometrics: The Keynes―Tinbergen controversy’

Blog-Reference and Blog-Reference

Lars Syll’s fatal blunder consists of maintaining that economics is a social science while, in fact, it is a systems science. #1 And while there is, of course, no such thing as a behavioral law, there are systemic laws.

Walrasian economics is based on behavioral axioms. #2 Because these axioms are provably false, the whole theoretical superstructure of mainstream economics is false. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that econometrics does not yield valid results. This, though, does not support the conclusion that the statistical methods/tools of econometrics are worthless, but confirms the long-known fact that economic theory in all variants from Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, to Austrianism is worthless.

Economists have not figured out the systemic laws to this day. In fact, they are too stupid for the elementary mathematics that underlies macroeconomics.

Keynes’ scientific incompetence can be exactly located in the GT: “Income = value of output = consumption + investment. Saving = income − consumption. Therefore saving = investment.” (p. 63)

Keynes got macroeconomic profit wrong: “His Collected Writings show that he wrestled to solve the Profit Puzzle up till the semi-final versions of his GT but in the end he gave up and discarded the draft chapter dealing with it.” (Tómasson et al.)

Let this sink in: the economist Keynes NEVER understood the foundational concept of his subject matter. Because profit is ill-defined, the complete theoretical superstructure of Keynesianism is false. Keynesian policy guidance NEVER had valid scientific foundations.

The elementary version of the axiomatically correct macroeconomic Profit Law, which is measurable with the precision of two decimal places, reads Qm≡I−Sm, with Qm as monetary profit and Sm as monetary saving. And this means that since Keynes/Hicks ALL I=S/IS-LM models are false.#3 Macroeconomics is proto-scientific garbage. Microeconomics is even worse.

Lars Syll summarizes Keynes’ critique of Tinbergen’s econometrics in great detail. Keynes argues: “The fallacy, of which ignorance of organic unity is a particular instance, may perhaps be mathematically represented thus: suppose f(x) is the goodness of x and f(y) is the goodness of y. It is then assumed that the goodness of x and y together is f(x) + f(y) when it is clearly f(x + y), and only in special cases will it be true that f(x + y) = f(x) + f(y).”

This, of course, is pure idiocy because goodness is a NONENTITY just like utility or equilibrium. The example proves that Keynes had no idea what economics is all about. He never understood the foundational concept of profit, and he was obviously too stupid for the elementary mathematics that underlies macroeconomics.

Trivially true: “Econometric modelling should never be a substitute for thinking.” and, because there is, to begin with, no substitute for thinking,  this applies also to Keynesianism. Nobody, except cargo cult scientists, can take seriously what Keynes has said about probability or econometrics or, for that matter, about profit or employment theory.#4

After 80+ years of storytelling/blather, Keynesians, Post-Keynesians, Anti-Keynesians, New Keynesians, MMTers, heterodox and pluralist retards, Lars Syll and the rest of stupid/ corrupt political agenda pushers, together with all their peer-reviewed articles/textbooks/blog-posts, have finally to be flushed down the scientific toilet.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#1 Economics is NOT a social science
#2 Where economics went wrong
#3 Mr. Keynes, Prof. Krugman, IS-LM, and the End of Economics as We Know It
#4 Go! ― test the Profit and Employment Law

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LINKS on Lars Syll's  'P-values are no substitute for thinking' on Nov 26

#DrainTheScientificSwamp

Scientists do NOT manipulate research with P-value, only the stupid/corrupt agenda pushers of orthodox and heterodox economics.

► Stop beating mainstream economics ― it is long dead
► The stupidity of Heterodoxy is the life insurance of Orthodoxy
► How Heterodoxy became the venue for science’s scum
► Lars Syll, fake scientist

July 14, 2018

And the answer is NCND ― economics after 200+ years of Glomarization

Comment on Lars Syll on ‘What are axiomatizations good for?’

Blog-Reference

Gilboa, Postlewaite, Samuelson, and Schmeidler ask: “What have these axiomatizations done for us lately?” Wrong question, of course. The right question economists have to ask themselves is: what have WE done for the proper axiomatization of economics lately?

The fact is, to begin with, that economic methodologists do not understand to this day what axiomatization is all about. Lars Syll even maintains that it is a kind of mental body-building: “Studying mathematics and logic is interesting and fun. It sharpens the mind.”

It is not at all a surprise, therefore, that economics is a failed science. Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism, and their derivatives are mutually contradictory, axiomatically false, and materially/formally inconsistent. As a result, economic policy guidance has NO valid scientific foundations since Adam Smith/Karl Marx.

This pluralism of provably false theories is pretty strange. How could it happen that economics is still at the proto-scientific level while science has made such incredible advances? The answer is that economics had been captured from the very beginning by political agenda pushers. Agenda-pushers, though, have no truck with science except for building Potemkin facades.

Science is binary true/false and NOTHING in between. Non-science is the swamp between true and false where “nothing is clear and everything is possible” (Keynes). Vagueness/ inconclusiveness is what Popper called an immunizing stratagem because: “Another thing I must point out is that you cannot prove a vague theory wrong.” (Feynman) While scientifically this is a bad thing, politically it is a good thing.

Because economists are not scientists but swamp creatures, they see to it that no analysis and no debate ever leave the swamp. This is achieved by the tried and tested method of Glomarization. #1 For example, to the central question, Does a General Economic Equilibrium exist? The answer is: “We can neither confirm nor deny the existence of a General Equilibrium.” And so on with NCND for any other question. #2, #3, #4

Accordingly, if a clear-cut refutation occasionally happens, it is simply filibustered away: “In economics we should strive to proceed, wherever we can, exactly according to the standards of the other, more advanced, sciences, where it is not possible, once an issue has been decided, to continue to write about it as if nothing had happened.” (Morgenstern)

Glomarization is the communicative modus operandi in the political sphere. Science is the exact opposite of the political swamp. Science aims for a clear-cut true/false answer with truth well-defined as material and formal consistency. The methodological tool to achieve this is the axiomatic-deductive method. As Aristotle put it 2000+ years ago: “When the premises are certain, true, and primary, and the conclusion formally follows from them, this is demonstration, and produces scientific knowledge of a thing.” This is why axiomatization is of overriding importance.

Neither orthodox nor heterodox economists know how to apply the axiomatic-deductive method correctly. #5 This is why their economic policy proposals have no valid scientific foundation. To the question What have economists ever done for their fellow citizens? The clear-cut answer is nothing but vacuous political blather.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#1 Wikipedia, Glomar response
#2 How the representative economist gets it wrong big-time
#3 Economic recommendations out of the swamp between true and false
#4 Failed economics: The losers’ long list of lame excuses
#5 For details of the big picture, see cross-references Axiomatization

Related 'Clueless about money and profit' and 'Keynesianism ― the economists’ senile dementia' and 'Buridan’s ass economics' and 'Knowledge is attainable ― even in economics' and 'Failed critique of failed economics' and 'Stop knowing nothing, start knowing something' and 'The scientific self-elimination of Heterodoxy' and 'Prophets of Preemptive Vanitizations' and 'Economics as fool’s paradise' and 'A heap of proto-scientific rubbish' and 'Truth by definition? The Profit Theory has been axiomatically false for 200+ years' and 'Real-World Economics: The sanctuary of stupidity and corruption' and 'The inexorable paradigm shift in economics'.

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AXEC121i


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REPLY to John Vertegaal on Jul 15

You say: “Lars and Asad, great minds but still groping after all these years… All reasoning starts from assumptions, but in order to be valid in the real world, those assumptions require empirical confirmation. All economists, as far as I know, assume that the present is complete and we live within our economy. Hence, they come up with assumed points of departure like the accounting identity: Y=C+I, blissfully unaware that accounting itself is based on unprovable assumptions.”

Scientific analysis starts with premises, and these have to be clearly stated. This is the minimum requirement. #1 Otherwise, things end after a few steps in confusion and blather. This happened with economics in general, and this happens every day in the econblogosphere.

The current state of economics is that neither Orthodoxy nor Heterodoxy nor Lars Syll nor Asad Zaman nor Craig nor Dave Marsay nor the rest has gotten the foundational concepts of profit and income right. #2

Economists are swampies. Economics is a failed science. All microfounded (Walrasian) and macrofounded (Keynesian) models are provably false. Economists do not know how the economy works. Economics is a cargo cult science. The “Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel” is a fraud.

“The moral of the story is simply this: it takes a new theory, and not just the destructive exposure of assumptions or the collection of new facts, to beat an old theory.” (Blaug) Economics needs a Paradigm Shift, and the expulsion of the scientifically incompetent or the “throng of superfluous economists” as Joan Robinson called them. #3



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REPLY to Asad Zaman on Jul 16

Since Adam Smith/Karl Marx, economics claims to be a science, but is NOT. Theoretical economics (= science) had been hijacked from the very beginning by political economists (= agenda pushers). Political economics has produced NOTHING of scientific value in the last 200+ years. #1

The fact is that economics is a failed science and that Heterodoxy has been complicit in the failure. #2 Whether this outcome was unintended/intended by individual economists does not matter. What counts is the collective effect, which is the perfect Glomarization of economics. There is not one policy proposal drawn from employment theory to monetary theory that embodies valid scientific knowledge about how the economy works, it is just opinion: “In order to tell the politicians and practitioners something about causes and best means, the economist needs the true theory or else he has not much more to offer than educated common sense or his personal opinion.” (Stigum)

Economists do not have the true theory. For every opinion, there is an equally plausible counter-opinion, and that is Glomarization ― hailed as pluralism and anything goes. #3

The political beauty of Glomarization is that it is paralyzing and therefore secures the status quo. Hayek, for one, instrumentalized this effect by arguing that just because of the lack of knowledge of economists and politicians about how the economy works, there is NO such thing as economic policy. For this epistemological reason, everything has to be left to the market as an information processor and knowledge producer.

To say economics needs a Paradigm Shift is to say that traditional Heterodoxy, too, has to be buried at the Flat-Earth-Cemetery. #4 This applies also to Asad Zaman, who has been refuted on all methodological counts. #5

By denying that, in principle, axiomatization produces logical consistency, and that state-of-the-art econometrics produces material consistency, heterodox methodologists in effect prevent scientific progress and indirectly support the political status quo.



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REPLY to davetaylor1, Prof Dr James Beckman, Germany, on Aug 2

davetaylor1 argues: “According to my dictionary the word ‘axiom’ can refer either to a self-evident truth or a universally accepted principle. Economists seem to be assuming the first of these and forgetting about the importance of the second, as exemplified in the ways of denoting sounds and numbers.”

And Prof Dr James Beckman, Germany, asks: “Self-evident to whom?”

This shows only that both heterodox blatherers have NO idea what axiomatization is all about. “Self-evidence” is NOT a criterion of axioms; this has always been popular BS.

Note that Newton, under the title of Axiomata Sive Leges Motu, states (in modern language): “In an inertial frame of reference, an object either remains at rest or continues to move at a constant velocity, unless acted upon by a force.”

This is NOT self-evident but an abstraction/idealization of observable motion on earth where an object does NOT move at a constant velocity.

All this is long known among people with more than two brain cells: “We may, therefore, agree with Ernst Mach, who very wisely pointed out that the law of inertia could hardly be ‘obvious’ or ‘self-evident’ since throughout most of recorded history men believed in a quite different law and would have denied the Cartesian-Newtonian inertial principle.” (Cohen, 1977)

The point of axiomatization is to clearly state the premises. As long as this is not done, any analysis and discussion will produce only proto-scientific garbage. Heterodox economists have never stated their axioms, and this is why Heterodoxy has never produced anything of scientific value. #1, #2, #3


#2 For details of the big picture, see cross-references Axiomatization

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REPLY to davetaylor1, John Vertegaal, Craig on Aug 10

The elementary production-consumption economy is, for a start, defined by three macroeconomic axioms (Yw=WL, O=RL, C=PX), two conditions (X=O, C=Yw), and two definitions (Qm≡C−Yw, Sm≡Yw−C). #1


#1 For details of the big picture, see cross-references Axiomatization

June 10, 2018

Supply-demand-equilibrium ― employment theory as an example of proto-scientific soap bubbling

Comment on Sandwichman on ‘The Wage[s]-Lump Doctrine ― still dogma after all these years’

Blog-Reference and Blog-Reference

“In order to tell the politicians and practitioners something about causes and best means, the economist needs the true theory or else he has not much more to offer than educated common sense or his personal opinion.” (Stigum)

The fact is that economists do NOT have the true theory. This holds in particular for employment theory, and the Lump-of-Labor theory is a case in point. The lethal methodological blunder of employment theory consists in the Fallacy of Composition, i.e., the illegitimate transfer of truths that hold for one firm/market onto the economy as a whole. What the representative micro-brained economist never understood is that what is true for the molehill is not true for the universe.

Methodological conclusion: the traditional microfoundations approach is as false as one can get and has to be fully replaced by the macrofoundations approach.

The axiomatically correct macroeconomic Law of Unemployment #1 is reproduced under Graphic AXEC36. #2


From this objective-structural-systemic relationship follows inter alia:
(i) An increase in the expenditure ratio ρE leads to higher employment L or lower unemployment u (the Greek letter ρ stands for ratio).
(ii) Increasing investment expenditures I exert a positive influence on employment.
(iii) An increase in the factor cost ratio ρF≡W/PR leads to higher employment.

The complete Employment Law is a bit longer and contains, in addition, the public sector and the foreign trade sector.

Items (i) and (ii) cover the familiar arguments about how aggregate demand affects employment. Item (iii) embodies the macroeconomic price mechanism. It works such that overall employment L increases if the average wage rate W increases relative to the average price P and productivity R, and vice versa. This is the opposite of what the obsolete Supply-Demand-Equilibrium approach says. 

From this follows the rules of effective employment policy. In the unemployment situation (with ρE and I given), the scientifically enlightened Legitimate Sovereign sets the parameters as follows: price increase zero and wage increase greater than productivity increase. This increases employment for a while. Afterward: price increase zero and wage increase equal to productivity increase. This stabilizes the economy at full employment.

Mentally retarded economists do, after 200+ years, still not know how the price and profit mechanism works. The one thing that they have brought to perfection in all this time is the trick of blowing bigger and bigger communicative soap bubbles. #4 Not to forget, economists reward themselves with the Nobel Prize for Proto-Scientific Soap Bubbling a.k.a. Economic Sciences.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#1 NAIRU, wage-led growth, and Samuelson’s Dyscalculia
#2 Keynes’ Employment Function and the Gratuitous Phillips Curve Disaster
#3 Graphic AXEC36 Structural-systemic Phillips Curve
#4 Economics: communication without content

For details of the big picture, see cross-references Employment/Phillips Curve.

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REPLY to Sandwichman on Jun 11

The Walrasian Auctioneer is not unemployed but dead. But Sandwichman is still soap-bubbling.

I wonder if you ever realize that the employment theory is false for 200+ years and that the only worthwhile issue in economics is how to abandon soap bubbling and start with serious scientific work.

For a start, you could try to empirically refute the axiomatically correct Law of Employment / Unemployment.

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REPLY to Sandwichman, Barkley Rosser on Jun 12

Your dialogue about the Walrasian Auctioneer is a wonderful demonstration of soapbubbling.

The Walrasian Auctioneer is known since its invention as one of the most idiotic constructions in the history of cargo cult science. You are the last persons who remember him.

The empirical refutation of the axiomatically correct Law of Employment/Unemployment means the application of econometrics, which in turn means: “the quantitative analysis of actual economic phenomena based on the concurrent development of theory and observation, related by appropriate methods of inference.” (Wikipedia)

The Employment Law defines the set screws for policymakers#1 who are institutionalized differently in different national monetary economies and are lumped together under the heading of Legitimate Sovereign.

Stop soap bubbling, try to empirically refute the Employment Law. You are in for a big surprise.


#1 The set screws of overall and individual employment

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REPLY to Sandwichman, Barkley Rosser on Jun 13

The London gold market is micro/partial; the Auctioneer refers to general equilibrium and overall simultaneous market coordination. The Auctioneer has been a construct of breathtaking idiocy from the very first moment, and this means a lot in view of the hereditary delirium of the representative economist who did not get out of the silly Lump-of-Labor Fallacy in 200+ years.

Why do Sandwichman and you not simply quit economics and soap bubble amicably about real-world facts like cow flatulence, the assassination of JFK, or the death of Yeshua bin Yusuf?

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REPLY to Barkley Rosser, Sandwichman  on Jun 13

Stop soap-bubbling about the Auctioneer and cow flatulence and simply try to empirically refute the axiomatically correct Employment Law. It is never too late to do serious scientific work.

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REPLY to Barkley Rosser on Jun 13

Of course, soap bubblers cannot test the Employment Law. But since it consists exclusively of measurable variables, every econometrician who has tested the Phillips Curve already has a good part of the data for testing the macroeconomic Employment Law. #1

Looking forward to the grand showdown.


#1 Keynes’ Employment Function and the Gratuitous Phillips Curve Disaster

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REPLY to ANC Driver, Tom Hickey, Calgacus on Jun 13

The Legitimate Sovereign can realize any employment level by applying the Employment Law. This is NOT AT ALL a question of left-wing/right-wing. The Employment Law defines exactly the set screws for policymakers.#1 It is much like taking an aircraft off the ground.

Needless to emphasize that soap-bubbling economists have never taken anything off the ground. Just the opposite. #2


#1 The set screws of overall and individual employment
#2 Mass unemployment: The joint failure of orthodox and heterodox economics

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REPLY to Tom Hickey on Jun 14

You say: “Institutionalization is an issue involving political economy and politics.”

No, not at all. Institutionalization involves two things: the Legitimate Sovereign and Science. The actual problem with regard to economic institutions is that there is neither.

There are political economics and theoretical economics. The main differences are: (i) The goal of political economics is to successfully push an agenda, and the goal of theoretical economics is to successfully explain how the actual economy works. (ii) In political economics, anything goes; in theoretical economics, the scientific standards of material and formal consistency are observed.

Economics claims to be a science, but it is NOT. Theoretical economics (= science) had been hijacked from the very beginning by political economists (= agenda pushers). Political economics has produced NOTHING of scientific value in the last 200+ years. #1 Employment Theory is provably false, Profit Theory is provably false, Monetary Theory is provably false, and so on.

MMT, too, is proto-scientific garbage. And it is too obvious that it has been hijacked by political agenda pushers. #2

Economics, understood as a science, is supposed to develop the true theory. The true economic theory tells one how the economic system works. This knowledge is needed to realize the goals that have been set in the political sphere by the Legitimate Sovereign.

Imagine this situation: The Legitimate Sovereign ― in current understanding = We The People ― has extensively discussed whether to fly to paradise on Christmas Island or to paradise on Easter Island. The decision has been Christmas Island, and in order to make things happen, a group of people has been tasked to build the aircraft. Obviously, these scientists and engineers need a lot of knowledge about materials and physical laws. What these folks need not at all is an opinion on whether Christmas or Easter Island is the better destination. What these folks need indeed is scientific competence.

What has happened in economics is that economists have, since Adam Smith/Karl Marx, been permanently involved in the political discussion and have spent neither time, nor talent, nor brains to figure out how the monetary economy works. What we now have is incompetent scientists from Krugman to Varoufakis to Kelton to Mitchell and so on, from the right wing to the left wing and back, who are fully occupied in pushing some agenda.

The vast majority of economists have entirely lost any scientific instincts, which would tell them to keep science and politics strictly apart, and have joined the crowd of clowns and useful idiots in the political Circus Maximus. #3

MMTers are no exception. The whole discussion about the Job Guarantee is just political soap-bubbling that lacks sound scientific foundations. It is only good as a smokescreen to obscure the political agenda of money-making for the one-percenters. Economics has degenerated into a plain political fraud.

Make science great again! Throw all economists out! Start with MMTers! Take Tom Hickey first!


#1 Economics has arrived at the bottom of the proto-scientific shithole
#2 Richard Murphy: the MMT fraudster dressed up as realist
#3 For details of the big picture, see cross-references Political Economics

***
REPLY to Tom Hickey on Jun 14

You say: “I am not an economist. My PhD is in philosophy. If I were an economist, I would argue economics with you, but I don’t operate outside my field.”

As a philosopher, you have studied The Republic and what Plato has said about stories “… which are now in use [but] must be discarded.”

“Of what tales are you speaking? he said. …
Those, I said, which are narrated by Homer and Hesiod, and the rest of the poets, who have ever been the great story-tellers of mankind.
But which stories do you mean, he said; and what fault do you find with them?
A fault which is most serious, I said; the fault of telling a lie, and, what is more, a bad lie.”

Philosophers have been known for 2300+ years to be committed to truth. They introduced the distinction between doxa=opinion and episteme=knowledge. You say you are a philosopher who operates strictly within your field.

How does it come, then, that you promote on this blog economists who are political storytellers, incompetent scientists, and who violate scientific standards/ethics on a daily basis?

Here are five political story-tellers/agenda-pushers who pose as scientists and censor and manipulate their blogs/Twitter accounts:
Bill Mitchell,
Stephanie Kelton,
Jason Smith,
Lars Syll,
Richard Murphy.#1

You know quite well that the foundational MMT balances equation is provably false. This is sufficient for the refutation of MMT. Refutation means that MMT has no sound scientific basis. It’s just storytelling and political agenda-pushing. That is NOT what scientists are supposed to do.

What kind of philosopher are you? Who awarded you a degree? Trump University? And why do you so evidently operate outside your field?


#1 For details/proofs, see cross-references MMT

***
REPLY to Tom Hickey on Jun 14

You need not study philosophy, what the absolute novice in every marketing and PR department and every half-witted journalist can tell you, even in the state of near-coma, is the mantra: Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World.

After all, already Plato was aware of “the great story-tellers of mankind”. The point is, though, that Plato was not directly enthusiastic about “telling a lie” or “a bad lie” or what we today call fake news or propaganda or disinformation, or cargo cult science. #1, #2, #3

Yes: “He [Shackle] could see that this [marginalist economics] was, in fact, a form of pseudo-secular religion… and that struck him, as it strikes others, as absurd.”

Yes, and because it IS absurd, marginalist economics will now be thrown out of science together with Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism, Pluralism, MMT, and the fake philosopher Tom Hickey.

Note that economists award themselves with the “Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel” which is a deception of the general public. Economics has never been more than storytelling. Economics is the worst embarrassment in the history of modern science. And MMT and Tom Hickey are part of it.


#1 Economics is not a science, not a religion, but proto-scientific rubbish
#2 Economics: communication without content
#3 Economics: stories, narratives, and disinformation

***
REPLY to Barkley Rosser on Jun 15

You say: “I just reread your supposed ‘Employment Law’.”

Fine, but obviously, you still do not understand how things work. There are TWO uses of the equation.

(i) For testing, one simply feeds the historical data in and looks at how the Law fits. Needless to say that inflation has not been zero in the past, but if the Law is true, it fits perfectly with the historically given rates of inflation/deflation and employment, and all the other variables.

(ii) For achieving his employment goal, the policymaker uses the equation as a tool that tells him how to set the independent variables on the right-hand side while the target value of employment is entered at the left-hand side.

Testing the Employment Law is, in principle, not different from testing the Phillips Curve. The beauty of the test is that the Employment Law (= structural Phillips Curve) is confirmed and the silly behavioral Phillips Curve is refuted.

Testing can be done and will be done ― not by soap bubblers, though, that much has always been clear, but by scientists. In the meantime, you can tell me more about your fields of expertise ― cow flatulence and proto-scientific methodology.

***
REPLY to Tom Hickey on Jun 15

You say: “What many if not most that think they understand this but have not studied a relevant discipline don’t understand is that ‘the world’ is based on a narrative aka story and myth.”

Everybody understands this and knows that people are born, told some idiotic stories in kindergarten, are later on guided in their neurotic behavior by it, eventually become philosophers/journalists/bloggers and earn a living by pushing narratives, tell their children the updated idiotic stories, and then go as stupid out of ‘the world’ as they have come in. This is how culture and communication work in Plato’s Cave.

The scientific realm is different. Science is about true/false with truth well-defined as material and formal consistency: “Research is, in fact, a continuous discussion of the consistency of theories: formal consistency insofar as the discussion relates to the logical cohesion of what is asserted in joint theories; material consistency insofar as the agreement of observations with theories is concerned.” (Klant)

The political realm and the scientific realm run on fundamentally different principles. And this is why they have to be kept strictly apart. The mixing of politics and science inevitably ruins science, as everybody can know from the history of political economics, which has produced NOTHING of scientific value in the last 200+ years. #1

Political economics was and is, in the best case, brain-dead soap-bubbling and in the worst case, outright fraud.

MMT falls into the latter category: it pushes the narrative of the benefits of MMT policy for the ninety-nine percenters through all media. The scientific fact is that the MMT selling proposition, ‘print, spend, and don’t worry about public debt’, with the same necessity as the First Law of Thermodynamics translates into Public Deficit = Private Profit and therefore benefits the one-percenters.

So, MMT is clearly what the philosopher Plato called a “bad lie” and what the philosopher Tom Hickey euphemizes as narrative, covers with folk-psychological soap bubbling, and actively promotes by applying the old Huxley/Orwell recipes of political brain-washing.

#1 The irrelevance of economics
#2 Economists: political trolls for 200+ years

***

REPLY to Tom Hickey on Jun 14

You say: “You are now arguing outside your field unless you are credentialed in philosophy, especially logic and epistemology.”

Before pestering the world with your good advice and talking nonsense about credentials, take a basic methodology course on YouTube. #1 Note, in particular, that science is NOT about credentials but about logical/empirical proof.

You seem to have an extremely short attention span. You present yourself as a philosopher who does not operate outside his field and then blathers about theoretical economics and political economics and political science and sociology, and mass psychology.

You say: “In political science and politics, a fundamental problem is that even when the ‘true theory’ is known, it is not automatically adopted but must be passed into policy (law) and that involves politics.”

Wake up, this is NOT the problem, for the simple reason that economists do not have the true theory. The major approaches ― Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism ― are mutually contradictory, axiomatically false, materially/formally inconsistent, and all got the pivotal economic concept of profit wrong. Economic policy guidance has had NO sound scientific foundations for 200+ years. Nothing to adopt, neither automatically nor otherwise.

Get it, there is NO true theory in economics, economists are NOT scientists but agenda pushers and useful political idiots.

Here is good advice for you: read what the great methodologist and economist J. S. Mill has said about the separation of science and politics: “A scientific observer or reasoner, merely as such, is not an adviser for practice. His part is only to show that certain consequences follow from certain causes, and that to obtain certain ends, certain means are the most effectual. Whether the ends themselves are such as ought to be pursued, and if so, in what cases and to how great a length, it is no part of his business as a cultivator of science to decide, and science alone will never qualify him for the decision.”

Repeat: NO part of his business. The political decisions are made in the political sphere by the Legitimate Sovereign, and they are NOT AT ALL the business of folks who should have figured out in the last 200+ years how the monetary economy works but failed to do so.

As a philosopher, you have NO credentials to dabble in economic policy or to promote MMT. All the more so, as you have obviously NOT realized some basics about what you are promoting:
(i) MMT is proto-scientific garbage, i.e., provably false, i.e., materially/formally inconsistent.
(ii) MMT is a political fraud, i.e., it pretends to promote the cause of the ninety-nine percenters but de facto promotes the cause of the one-percenters.
(iii) MMTers are scientifically incompetent.
(iv) MMTers constantly violate scientific standards/ethics.

You say you are a philosopher who does not operate outside his field. Very good! Get out of economics, we already have an oversupply of soap bubblers, or what Joan Robinson called the ‘throng of superfluous economists’.


#1 YouTube Feynman on Scientific Method

"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science."

***

REPLY to ANC Driver on Jun 16

You recommend Collingwood’s Economics as a Philosophical Science as follows: “Seeing as we are talking of economics, science, and philosophy all in the same cave I thought I’d share probably one of the best ‘short’… pieces I have ever read and which for its comparative size has probably had the greatest impact on me personally in understanding first and foremost, what an economic activity actually is, second, that we take the ability to engage in economic activities for granted, and third, that we cannot mix morals with economics.”

Realize:
  • You are putting economics, science, and philosophy into one hat.
  • This is illegitimate because economics and philosophy are what Feynman called cargo cult science.
  • The fundamental blunder of economics is that it defines itself as a social science.
  • The subject matter of economics is the economic system, i.e., the interaction of economic variables like employment, price, profit, productivity, income, output, and so on.
  • Human Nature/motives/behavior/action is the subject matter of Psychology, Sociology, Anthropology, History, Political Science, Biology, Social Philosophy, Ethics, and so on.
  • As far as economics deals with Human Nature/motives/behavior/action, it is Political Economics.
  • Political Economics has achieved nothing of scientific value in the last 200+ years.
  • Political Economists are failed/fake scientists.
  • Political Economics is since Adam Smith/Karl Marx a smokescreen for agenda pushing.
  • Political agenda pushers, no matter how they present themselves, are either stupid or corrupt or both and will therefore never be accepted in the community of scientists.
  • Economics had been hijacked from the very beginning by agenda pushers. This aberration has to be reversed. In methodological terms, economics needs a Paradigm Shift.
Collingwood writes in the introduction: “The thesis here to be advanced, then, is that there is a special type of action, … that this utilitarian or economic type of action is the fundamental fact with which all economic science is concerned; …”

No, this exactly is the Social Science Fallacy. Economics as a science is NOT concerned with how people behave but with how the economic system behaves. There are systemic laws that can be objectively determined, but economists have, to this da,y failed to figure them out. Instead, they were very successful in producing a breathtaking heap of peer-reviewed proto-scientific garbage.

Time to acknowledge that political economists had much support from retarded social philosophers like Collingwood and Tom Hickey. Also, time to properly separate science/theoretical economics from politics, soapbox economics, agenda-pushing, philosophy, and all the other cargo cult sciences.

Politics has to be determined in the political sphere by the Legitimate Sovereign. The political sphere and the scientific sphere have to be separated. After 200+ years of failure, economists are supposed to figure out how the economic system works. Only then can they credibly claim to be of assistance in the realization of the Legitimate Sovereign’s objective, that is, the Good Society.

***
REPLY to Tom Hickey on Jun 16

You say: “Given contemporary conditions, that would seem to involve instituting full employment now, since it is not only possible but simple by following MMT analysis, theory, and policy based on it. In fact, as Calgacus has pointed out, the MMT JG would begin breaking the back of modern capitalism by increasing labor power. … What needs to happen is that the capital/labor share ratio has to be shifted in favor of workers.”

Take notice that there is Xmas economics where everybody writes down a list of their wishes. Your priorities go roughly as follows: full employment, technological innovation, increasing productivity, increasing leisure, and a more equitable distribution.

This list makes you a very likable philosopher. Not many people will contradict you, but probably add such things as environmental protection and affordable health care.

In order to realize this program, you need to know how the monetary economy works. Your problem is that you don’t. For example, you recommend MMT/JG without realizing that MMT’s money-creation/deficit-spending makes distribution progressively more unequal.#1 You say that you want to better the distributional situation of the ninety-nine percenters, but your recommendations make matters worse.

The economist’s business is NOT to write down a wish list but to realize the goals that have been authorized by the Legitimate Sovereign. This requires scientific knowledge about how the monetary economy works. This knowledge is embodied in the systemic laws of the monetary economy. You cannot achieve full employment (however defined) if you don’t know the Employment Law.#2

To soap bubble about flying above the clouds is futile. It is the folks who have figured out the laws of aerodynamics and thermodynamics who get things off the ground. Analogous in economics.

As Marx said: “Philosophers and politicians have hitherto only popularized various wish lists; the point is to know how to realize them.”


#1 MMT: So-called progressives as trailblazers for Trumponomics
#2 This brings us back to the first post.

***
REPLY to Tom Hickey on Jun 17

Tom Hickey summarizes: “I have said that new vision is needed and proposed a framework in terms of one of the enduring questions of Western intellectual history, which I believe can only be dealt with holistically by incorporating non-Western traditions. That question is the one that occupied the ancient Greeks: what does it mean to live a good life as an individual in a good society? That has a long tradition in terms of ethics, action theory, and social and political thought.”

Yes, the political/philosophical discussion about the Good Society goes back to the beginning of civilization.

Tom Hickey tells the story of how he came after a spiritual quest through Western and non-Western history to see that the society we live in is mentally deranged and institutionally dysfunctional, and that MMT offers a solution, at least for the economic causes of the malaise.

“Realistically, that is where we need to start strategically. What MMT proposes is feasible politically.” Tom Hickey’s narrative explains how he became an MMT agenda pusher.

When one takes the political glasses off and puts the scientific glasses on, one sees a quite different reality:
• Tom Hickey never did serious science.
• It is the MMT social goals that appeal to him.
• He never realized that the economic theory that underlies MMT policy guidance is provably false.
• He promotes MMT for political reasons and does not really care about its scientific validity.

So, Tom Hickey stands firmly in the tradition of Political Economy, which abuses ‘science’ from Adam Smith onward as a credibility/authority-enhancer. For agenda pushers, the political narrative always comes first: “A genuine inquirer aims to find out the truth of some question, whatever the color of that truth. ... A pseudo-inquirer seeks to make a case for the truth of some proposition(s) determined in advance. There are two kinds of pseudo-inquirer, the sham and the fake. A sham reasoner is concerned, not to find out how things really are, but to make a case for some immovably-held preconceived conviction. A fake reasoner is concerned, not to find out how things really are, but to advance himself by making a case for some proposition to the truth-value of which he is indifferent.” (Haack)

Tom Hickey recounts MMT history: “Warren Mosler has set forth a range of proposals for implementing a policy based on MMT principles. The range is not complete and many other issues need to be addressed that MMT hasn’t yet. As the MMT have said, there are fewer than a dozen of us, which is an improvement on the original 3 + 1 twenty years ago ― Warren Mosler, Bill Mitchell and Randy Wray, along with grad student Pavlina Tcherneva.”

This is what MMT looks like to me. The trained economist and hedge fund founder Warren Mosler stumbled one day upon Post-Keynesianism/MMT and found that it contained a lot of sound arguments against mainstream monetary theory and some good social planks for a political platform. Warren Mosler developed the narrative of how the fiat money system can be used to solve most socio-economic problems. As a marketing buff, he realized that Wall Street types have a credibility problem with selling social policy. And this resulted in strengthening the sales team with caring Stephanie Kelton and the spiritually enlightened philosopher Tom Hickey.

I have no problem with agenda pushers promoting their stuff in the political Circus Maximus. And I have no problem with Wall Street’s Warren Mosler running for the Virgin Islands' governor. The lethal flaws of MMT are:
• The scientific part of MMT is provably false.
• MMT policy guidance has no sound scientific foundations.
• MMT is a political fraud, not substantially different from Neoclassics, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism.

The mixing of politics and science always corrupts science. This starts with Smith/Marx and continues over the whole right/left spectrum from Hayek, Keynes, Friedman, Krugman, Keen, Mosler, to Tom Hickey.

Let’s get rid of all of them.

***
REPLY  to Calgacus on Jun 17

You say: “Not seeing fallacies in some reasoning that MMT is welfare for the rich is not the same as there not being a fallacy, and there is. A really easy way for anyone to quickly see that the reasoning must be fallacious (formally inconsistent) is the historical fact that applied MMT has everywhere led to progressively more equal distributions of wealth and income, not the opposite. … (By applied MMT I mean the New Deal, WWII in the US & UK, the postwar era practically everywhere & for a few countries even afterward. Pretty much the closer to MMT / genuine Keynes ― the better for income/ wealth distribution.)”

Note that there are two issues here: (i) the classical macroeconomic issue of the relative magnitudes of profits and wages [To determine the laws which regulate this distribution, is the principal problem in Political Economy (Ricardo)] and (ii), the issue of the distribution of wages among workers and of profits among firms. I have dealt with both issues in working papers#1, #2 and in blog posts. #3, #4

It is pretty obvious that economists from Smith/Ricardo via Keynes to MMT never understood what macroeconomic profit is and as a consequence, thoroughly messed up Distribution Theory.

I know for sure that you don’t understand what macroeconomic profit is. Therefore, it is beyond your means to say anything sensible about distribution.

The axiomatically correct Profit Law for the economy as a whole is given as Qm≡Yd+(I−Sm)+(G−T)+(X−M), which reduces to Qm=G−T for Yd, I, Sm, X, M = 0. The reduced Profit Law says that the monetary profit of the business sector Qm is equal to the deficit G−T of the public sector, in a nutshell: Public Deficit = Private Profit.

Now, MMT is essentially money-creation/deficit spending. Because of this, it is correct to say that MMT progressively worsens the distribution. #5

However, for anyone who can read an equation, it is obvious that the positive effect of a government deficit G−T on macroeconomic profit Qm can at any time be counteracted by the negative effects of the other variables, i.e., Yd, I, Sm, X, M.

Whether this has been the case during the “New Deal, WWII in the US & UK, the postwar era practically everywhere” can be established only by testing the complete equation.

There is no way around it; in order to make progress with Distribution Theory, the Profit Law must be tested with the data for the historical time periods you mentioned.

As far as I know, the axiomatically correct Profit Law has never been tested. Your assertion: “Pretty much the closer to MMT / genuine Keynes ― the better for income/ wealth distribution.” is pretty much hanging in midair.#6


#1 The Profit Theory is False Since Adam Smith. What About the True Distribution Theory?
#2 Essentials of Constructive Heterodoxy: Profit
#3 Profit and the decline of labor’s nominal share
#4 Profit and distribution: a primer
#5 Keynes, Lerner, MMT, Trump and exploding profit
#6 Keynesianism as ultimate profit machine

July 27, 2017

Why economists have not been effective in economics

Comment on Tim Johnson on ‘Why mathematics has not been effective in economics’

Blog-Reference and Blog-Reference and Blog-Reference on Jul 31

Mathematics has not been effective in economics because economics is a cargo cult science. Feynman defined it as follows: “They’re doing everything right. The form is perfect. ... But it doesn’t work. ... So I call these things cargo cult science because they follow all the apparent precepts and forms of scientific investigation, but they’re missing something essential.”

What is missing among economists is a proper understanding of what science is all about. Aristotle gave a working definition 2300+ years ago: “When the premises are certain, true, and primary, and the conclusion formally follows from them, this is demonstration, and produces scientific knowledge of a thing.”

Economists apparently followed this methodology. Walrasian economics is axiomatized, the hardcore premises are verbally given as follows: “HC1 economic agents have preferences over outcomes; HC2 agents individually optimize subject to constraints; HC3 agent choice is manifest in interrelated markets; HC4 agents have full relevant knowledge; HC5 observable outcomes are coordinated, and must be discussed with reference to equilibrium states.” (Weintraub)

It should be pretty obvious that the Walrasian axiom set contains three NONENTITIES: (i) constrained optimization (HC2), (ii) rational expectations (HC4), (iii) equilibrium (HC5). Every theory/model that contains a nonentity is A PRIORI false. And this is why economics is a cargo cult science. Economists do all the things scientists are supposed to do but it does not work.

Science is about invariances (Nozick) but there is NO such thing as behavioral invariances. Because of this, the Walrasian axioms are methodological madness, to begin with.

Economics suffers from the fact that the subject matter is ill-defined. Economists think that they are doing economics while they bungle amateurishly in sociology and psychology. What economists overlook is that their subject matter is the structure and behavior of the economic system and that all questions about Human Nature/motives/behavior/action are NOT their business.

The task of economics is to figure out how the economy works. Economics is a systems science. Accordingly, the correct approach is not microfoundations but macrofoundations.#1

What we have at the moment are Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, and Austrianism. Neither of these approaches satisfies the scientific criteria of formal and material consistency. Economists are provably false with regard to the two most important features of the market economy: (a) the profit mechanism, and (b), the price mechanism. Let this sink in: the profit theory is false since Adam Smith. Instead of having clarified their foundational concepts of profit and income, economists have wasted their time fooling around with NONENTITIES.

Economics needs a Paradigm Shift from false Walrasian microfoundations and false Keynesian macrofoundations to true macrofoundations. Economics is NOT a social science but a systems science. A system can be objectively and precisely defined. This is the very condition for the application of mathematics.

When the premises are not correctly defined mathematics cannot work its magic and as collateral damage econometrics becomes a senseless exercise.#3 When utility maximization is put into the premises no testable proposition ever results. Scientifically incompetent economists do not understand this elementary methodological fact for 150+ years. And this is why mathematics has not been effective in economics.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#1 New Economic Thinking: the 10 crucial points
#2 Profit theory in less than 5 minutes
#3 Morons on math

For details of the big picture see cross-references Math/Mathiness.

Immediately following Economists: just too stupid for counting.

June 21, 2017

Morons on math

Comment on Lars Syll on ‘Simpson’s paradox’

Blog-Reference

A theory is the humanly best mental representation of reality. A theory is fundamentally different from a commonsensical description of reality.

A theory must satisfy two criteria in order to be accepted to the corpus of scientific knowledge: material and formal consistency. Logical consistency is secured by applying the axiomatic-deductive method and empirical consistency is secured by applying state-of-the-art testing.

For the refutation of a theory, it suffices to demonstrate that it is either logically or empirically inconsistent. We know by now that economics is both. The current state is this: the major approaches ― Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism ― are mutually contradictory, axiomatically false, materially/formally inconsistent, and all got profit wrong. With the pluralism of provably false theories economics sits squarely at the proto-scientific level.

Economics is a failed science and this proves first of all that BOTH orthodox and heterodox economists are incompetent scientists. They do not even understand what science is all about. Feynman called these people cargo cult scientists.

Cargo cult scientists are easy to spot because they talk often about methodology, i.e. how to do science properly, and what they say is glaring nonsense. Paul Romer is a case in point: “Math cannot establish the truth value of a fact. Never has. Never will.”

No, because scientific truth is defined by material AND formal consistency, and math is supposed to guarantee formal consistency. And this is what it has done so admirably throughout history ― except in economics. This, though, is not the fault of math but of economists.

Scientists know that math works but they are not sure why: “At this point, an enigma presents itself which in all ages has agitated inquiring minds. How can it be that mathematics, being after all a product of human thought which is independent of experience, is so admirably appropriate to the objects of reality?” (Einstein, 1921), see also (Wigner, 1979), (Velupillai, 2005)

“I find it quite amazing that it is possible to predict what will happen by mathematics, which is simply following rules which really have nothing to do with what is going on in the original thing. (Feynman, 1992)

“The method of reasoning by chains of syllogisms is nothing but a transformation mechanism, applicable just as well to one set of premises as to another; it could not serve therefore to characterize these premises. In other words, it is the external form which the mathematician gives to his thought, the vehicle which makes it accessible to others, in short, the language suited to mathematics; this is all, no further significance should be attached to it.” (Bourbaki, 2005)

Genuine scientists know how to use math to their advantage, economists = cargo cult scientists don’t. In very general terms it can be said that economists fail because of the Fallacy of Insufficient Abstraction. What economists have not yet understood is that the subject matter of economics is not Human Nature/behavior/action but the behavior of the economy. Economics is NOT a social science but a systems science.

The economy, i.e. the subject matter of economics, is an abstraction that has to be clearly defined by a set of premises, a.k.a. foundational propositions, a.k.a. axioms. Without clear premises all conclusions are for the wastebasket, the whole argument is scientifically worthless, and economic policy guidance has no sound scientific foundation.

When the premises are not correctly defined mathematics cannot work its magic and as collateral damage econometrics becomes a senseless exercise. When utility maximization is put into the premises no testable proposition ever results. Economists do not understand this elementary methodological fact for 150+ years.

It is NOT so that mathematics or standard statistical methods are inapplicable in economics. The failure of economics is uniquely and exclusively caused by the scientific incompetence of economists. The ultimate reason why economics never rose above the proto-scientific level is that it is built upon false premises. As Aristotle put it: “When the premises are certain, true, and primary, and the conclusion formally follows from them, this is demonstration, and produces scientific knowledge of a thing.”

In the last 200+ years, neither orthodox nor heterodox economists have produced scientific knowledge of their thing. They do not even understand the elementary mathematics that underlies macroeconomic accounting.#1

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#1 The final implosion of MMT and How Keynes got macro wrong and Allais got it right.

Related 'Solving Mill’s starting problem' and 'The new macroeconomic paradigm' and 'Why is economics such a scientific embarrassment?' and 'Why economists don’t know what profit is' and 'Microfoundations have been dead for 150+ years: high time to move on' and 'Economics ― the science that never was' and 'Rectification of MMT macro accounting' and 'Economists’ foundational conceptual blunder' and 'The GDP-death-blow for the economics profession'. For details of the big picture see cross-references Math/Mathiness.

April 15, 2017

How to overcome the manifest silliness of Econ 101 and save the economy

Comment on Noah Smith on ‘Why the 101 model doesn’t work for labor markets’

Blog-Reference and Blog-Reference and Blog-Reference and Blog-Reference on Apr 16

The Econ 101 labor market theory does not work because it is based on microfoundations. Microfoundations are given with the neo-Walrasian axiom set: “HC1 economic agents have preferences over outcomes; HC2 agents individually optimize subject to constraints; HC3 agent choice is manifest in interrelated markets; HC4 agents have full relevant knowledge; HC5 observable outcomes are coordinated, and must be discussed with reference to equilibrium states.” (Weintraub)

From these axioms, together with some auxiliary assumptions, follows what Leijonhufvud famously called the Totem of Micro/Macro, that is, SS-curve―DD-curve―equilibrium, which is the representative economist’s all-purpose tool.

This approach is false on all methodological counts; that is, supply-demand-equilibrium is a NONENTITY. General inapplicability implies that it is also inapplicable to the labor market.

Microfoundations is the wrong approach. This explains why economics is a failed science. The correct approach is macrofoundations. #1

The elementary version of the correct (objective, systemic, behavior-free, macrofounded) Employment Law is shown with Graphic AXEC62. #2


From this equation follows:
(i) An increase in the expenditure ratio ρE leads to higher employment L (the Greek letter ρ stands for ratio). An expenditure ratio ρE greater than 1 indicates credit expansion, a ratio ρE less than 1 indicates credit contraction.
(ii) Increasing investment expenditures I exert a positive influence on employment.
(iii) An increase in the factor cost ratio ρF≡W/PR leads to higher employment.

The complete Employment Law contains, in addition, profit distribution, the public sector, and foreign trade.

Items (i) and (ii) cover Keynes’s familiar arguments about aggregate demand. The factor cost ratio ρF, as defined in (iii), embodies the price mechanism. The fact of the matter is that overall employment INCREASES if the AVERAGE wage rate W INCREASES relative to average price P and productivity R. This is the OPPOSITE of what standard economics teaches: “We economists have all learned, and many of us teach, that the remedy for excess supply in any market is a reduction in price.” (Tobin)

False theory leads to false policy guidance. Scientifically incompetent economists bear the intellectual responsibility for the social devastation of mass unemployment.

The systemic Employment Law contains nothing but measurable variables and is therefore readily testable. There is no need for further brain-dead supply-demand-equilibrium blather: as always in science, a test decides the matter.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#1 The macrofoundations approach starts with three systemic (= behavior-free) axioms: (A0) The objectively given and most elementary configuration of the economy consists of the household and the business sector, which in turn consists initially of one giant fully integrated firm. (A1) Yw=WL wage income Yw is equal to wage rate W times working hours. L, (A2) O=RL output O is equal to productivity R times working hours L, (A3) C=PX consumption expenditure C is equal to price P times quantity bought/sold X.
#2 For details, see cross-references Employment

Related 'How economists murdered the economy and got away with it' and 'Economics is a science? You must be joking!' and 'How to Get Rid of Supply-Demand-Equilibrium' and 'The father of modern economics and his imbecile kids' and 'Coming soon: the canonical economics textbook' and cross-references Econ 101

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REPLY to Tom Hickey on Apr 16

The concept of rent is ill-defined because economists do not know, since Smith and Ricardo, what profit is. See When Ricardo Saw Profit, He Called It Rent: On the Vice of Parochial Realism

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REPLY to JoeMac on Apr 17

“Every model is unrealistic” is an argument from the list of economists’ silliest excuses. #1 Time to bring yourself methodologically up to speed.

The point is NOT that Econ 101 is ‘unrealistic’ but that it is PROVABLY FALSE. #2 And the fact of the matter is that economists in their abysmal scientific incompetence have NOT realized it in the past 60 years. #3

#1 Failed economics: The losers’ long list of lame excuses
#2 All models are false because all economists are stupid
#3 The father of modern economics and his imbecile kids

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COMMENT on Bruce Wilder on Apr 17

Supply-demand-equilibrium is one of the most annoying constructs in the history of sciences but every student generation since Walras/Jevons/Menger swallowed this methodological crap without turning an eyelid.

Nobody with two brain cells can start with a NONENTITY like utility maximization, derive phantasmagorical functions, and then wonder why econometrics runs straight into an identification problem.

It is NOT so that there were no timely warnings from genuine scientists: “Walras approached Poincaré for his approval. ... But Poincaré was devoutly committed to applied mathematics and did not fail to notice that utility is a nonmeasurable magnitude. ... He also wondered about the premises of Walras’s mathematics: It might be reasonable, as a first approximation, to regard men as completely self-interested, but the assumption of perfect foreknowledge ‘perhaps requires a certain reserve’.” (Porter)

Every economist who has accepted supply-demand-equilibrium as a reasonable description of how the market system works has flunked the competency test. #1 There is no way around the nullification of all scientific credentials (Master, Ph.D., Peer Reviewer, Journal Editor, Professor, Nobel Laureate) economists have ever received since Walras/Jevons/Menger. Heterodox economists are NOT exempt because they failed to develop an alternative to supply-demand-equilibrium since Veblen.

#1 How to Get Rid of Supply-Demand-Equilibrium

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ICYMI on Apr 17

Econ 101 is dead. #1

Psychology, sociology, politics, and history have to be left to psychologists, sociologists, political scientists, and historians. #2 Economics is about how the economic system works.

Supply-demand-equilibrium is based on behavioral axioms (= microfoundations), and because of this methodological blunder, the whole analytical superstructure as presented in the textbooks for 60+ years is provably false. #3

Econ 101 doesn’t work for the labor market, and it doesn’t work anywhere else.

Economists’ memo: If it isn’t macro-axiomatized, it isn’t economics.


#1 Methodology 101, economic filibuster, and the mother of all excuses
#2 A farewell to PsySoc economics
#3 The father of modern economics and his imbecile kids

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REPLY to JoeMac on Apr 20

I said: “The point is NOT that Econ 101 is ‘unrealistic’ but that it is PROVABLY FALSE.”

You said: “I don’t understand your point. No one is against using empirical evidence to refute models.”

Provably false means false in the SAME way false as the geocentric theory is false, that is, TOTALLY false, that is, logically and empirically false. The consequence is that Econ 101 is OUTSIDE of science, just as the geocentric theory, the flat-earth theory, or the phlogiston theory are outside of science.

Econ 101 is based on microfoundations, which are given with the neo-Walrasian axiom set: “HC1 economic agents have preferences over outcomes; HC2 agents individually optimize subject to constraints; HC3 agent choice is manifest in interrelated markets; HC4 agents have full relevant knowledge; HC5 observable outcomes are coordinated, and must be discussed with reference to equilibrium states.” (Weintraub)

This axiom set contains three NONENTITIES. Every theory/model that contains a NONENTITY is a priori false. In other words, Econ 101 is axiomatically false since Walras/Jevons/Menger. In still other words, economics from supply-demand-equilibrium to DSGE is false as clearly as 2+2=5 is false.

There is NO choice between partial equilibrium or total equilibrium because ALL models that contain equilibrium HC5 are false. The same holds for HC2 and HC4.

From this follows that the microfoundations paradigm has to be FULLY replaced, just as the geocentric paradigm had to be fully replaced by the heliocentric paradigm.

In simple terms, axiomatically false is as different from ‘unrealistic’ as a death sentence is from a traffic ticket.

Econ 101 is one of the most annoying constructs since the ancient Greeks invented science 2300+ years ago, but the representative economist has not realized it until this day. Econ 101 is outside of science, the representative economist is outside of science, and JoeMac is outside of science. Which part of ‘outside of science’ do you not understand?