Showing posts sorted by relevance for query Lawson. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query Lawson. Sort by date Show all posts

March 4, 2016

Lawson’s fundamental methodological error and the failure of Heterodoxy

Comment on Lars Syll on ‘Critical realism and scientific explanation’

Blog-Reference and Blog-Reference on Mar 5

As far as the critique of orthodox economics is concerned, critical realism is correct. Yet, the fundamental error of critical realism is to assume that economics is about ‘how society works’. No! This is the subject matter of sociology. Economics is about ‘how the economy works.’ Society and economy are intertwined but must be separated analytically.

Since Adam Smith, economics claims to be a science. Methodologically, it started as a mixture of sociology and political science: “The science which traces the laws of such of the phenomena of society as arise from the combined operations of mankind for the production of wealth, in so far as those phenomena are not modified by the pursuit of any other object.” (Mill, 1874, V.39)

With respect to the subject matter, there is no difference between Mill and Marx: “My stand-point, from which the evolution of the economic formation of society is viewed as a process of natural history, ...” (Marx, 1906, M.9)

With Jevons/Walras/Menger, the focus shifted to methodological individualism, and economics became a mixture of dilettantish psychology, sociology, and political science. This approach has failed abysmally.

Economics is NOT a science of individual/social/political behavior but of the behavior of the monetary economy. Accordingly, the correct definition of the subject matter is objective/ structural/systemic: “Economics is the science which studies how the monetary economy works.”

As a consequence, the long-overdue Copernican turn in economics consists of the methodological switch from behavior-centered bottom-up, i.e., subjective microfoundation, to structure-centered top-down, i.e., objective macrofoundations. All Human-Nature issues are the subject matter of other disciplines (psychology, sociology, anthropology, biology/Darwinism, political science, history, philosophy, etcetera) and are taken in from these by way of multidisciplinary cooperation. To paraphrase J. S. Mill: ‘Economics as a systems science presupposes all the physical and social sciences; it takes for granted all such of the truths of those sciences as are concerned with the working of the economic system.’ (cf. Mill 1874, V.29)

Lars Syll summarizes Tony Lawson: “We have to maintain the Enlightenment tradition of thinking of reality as principally independent of our views of it and of the main task of science as studying the structure of this reality. Perhaps the most important contribution a researcher can make is reveal what this reality that is the object of science actually looks like.”

Exactly so.

Therefore, economics has to drop these axioms/microfoundations:
HC1 There exist economic agents.
HC2 Agents have preferences over outcomes.
HC3 Agents independently optimize subject to constraints.
HC4 Choices are made in interrelated markets.
HC5 Agents have full relevant knowledge.
HC6 Observable economic outcomes are coordinated, so they must be discussed with reference to equilibrium states.” (Weintraub, 1985, p. 109)

Lawson’s critique fully applies to the theoretical superstructure that has been built upon HC1 (= methodological individualism) to HC6 (= closure).

The proper object of economics is neither the individual nor society but the economy. So we have to move on and, first of all, describe the structure of the monetary economy.

(A0) The most elementary configuration of the (world-) economy consists of the household and the business sector, which in turn consists initially of one giant fully integrated firm and is given by three objective structural axioms/macrofoundations:
(A1) Yw=WL wage income Yw is equal to wage rate W times working hours L,
(A2) O=RL output O is equal to productivity R times working hours L,
(A3) C=PX consumption expenditure C is equal to price P times quantity bought/sold X.

These premises are certain, true, and primary, and therefore satisfy all methodological requirements (2014). In the words of Lars Syll: “Science is made possible by the fact that there are structures that are durable and are independent of our knowledge or beliefs about them. There exists a reality beyond our theories and concepts of it. It is this independent reality that our theories in some way deal with.”

Society has no durable structures, but the monetary economy has, and they are given in the most elementary case by (A1) to (A3). Economics is not a social science but a systems science, and it deals not with the defects of society but with systemic defects that produce what every superficial observer can see but not understand (2015).

The fundamental flaw of Lawson’s methodology is that he defines economics as a social science.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


References
Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2014). Objective Principles of Economics. SSRN Working Paper Series, 2418851: 1–19. URL
Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2015). Major Defects of the Market Economy. SSRN Working Paper Series, 2624350: 1–40. URL
Marx, K. (1906). Capital: A Critique of Political Economy, Vol. I. The Process of Capitalist Production. Library of Economics and Liberty. URL
Mill, J. S. (1874). Essays on Some Unsettled Questions of Political Economy. On the Definition of Political Economy; and on the Method of Investigation Proper To It. Library of Economics and Liberty. URL
Weintraub, E. R. (1985). General Equilibrium Analysis. Cambridge, London, New York, etc.: Cambridge University Press.

Related 'Economists’ three-layered scientific incompetence'. For details of the big picture, see cross-references Heterodoxy and cross-references Paradigm Shift and cross-references Axiomatization.

For more about Lawson, see AXECquery.

January 2, 2015

Total scientific Dadaism

Comment on Lars Syll on 'Axiomatic economics ― total horseshit'

Blog-Reference

In the intro, Lars Syll writes: “Studying mathematics and logics is interesting and fun. It sharpens the mind. In pure mathematics and logics, we do not have to worry about external validity. But economics is not pure mathematics or logics. It’s about society. The real world.”

Economists have their philosophical roots in Bentham's utilitarianism. And it seems that they never dare to get out of this shallow intellectual puddle and to swim in deeper waters. Have they never heard what real scientists have said about mathematics and axiomatization? Have Galilei or Newton or Einstein said that mathematics is fun? That a little intellectual gymnastics is good against mental enfeeblement?

Above all: did one of these three better-known scientists ignore the problem of external validity?

Exactly the contrary! For all of them, mathematics was the key to reality ― to the very reality that is producing what the myopic utilitarian experiences when he looks in all his nativity out of the window.

“Experience can of course guide us in our choice of serviceable mathematical concepts; it cannot possibly be the source from which they are derived; experience of course remains the sole criterion of the serviceability of a mathematical construction for physics, but the truly creative principle resides in mathematics.” (Einstein, 1934, p. 167)

Lawson's ontology suffers from several misunderstandings (2013).

“The central message of Lawson’s critique of modern economics is that an economy is an “open system” but economists insist on dealing with it as if it were “closed.” (see parallel intro)

This is true for equilibrium economics. And it is true that Orthodoxy is a failure. But now comes the logical blunder: “Modern economics has become increasingly irrelevant to the understanding of the real world. In his seminal book Economics and Reality (1997) Tony Lawson traced this irrelevance to the failure of economists to match their deductive-axiomatic methods with their subject.”

While Orthodoxy indeed applies the axiomatic-deductive method there is no necessary connection between the method and closed systems. Physicists apply mathematics and the axiomatic-deductive method for the description of a universe that certainly displays no equilibrium and no closure in the sense of orthodox economics. What has to be rejected is the notion of equilibrium/closure and not the axiomatic-deductive method.

Because they are fixated on equilibrium economics Tony Lawson and Lars Syll misunderstand the role of the deductive-axiomatic method for scientific research.

Methodological discussions among economists are total scientific Dadaism.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


References
Einstein, A. (1934). On the Method of Theoretical Physics. Philosophy of Science, 1(2): 163–169. URL
Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2013). Crisis and Methodology: Some Heterodox Misunderstandings. SSRN Working Paper Series, 2083519: 1–25. URL

December 29, 2014

Entertainment vs Science

Comment on Lars Syll on 'Mainstream macroeconomics distorts our understanding of economic reality'

Blog-Reference

In the introduction, Lars Syll writes: “Studying mathematics and logics is interesting and fun. It sharpens the mind. In pure mathematics and logics we do not have to worry about external validity. But economics is not pure mathematics or logics. It’s about society. The real world. Forgetting that, economics is really in dire straits.”

Economists have their philosophical roots in Bentham's utilitarianism. And it seems that they never dare to get out of this shallow intellectual puddle and swim in deeper waters. Have they never heard what genuine scientists have said about mathematics? Have Galilei or Newton or Einstein said that mathematics is fun? That a little intellectual gymnastics is good against mental enfeeblement? That it should be part of a comprehensive wellness program for any responsible citizen? Above all: did one of these three better-known scientists ignore the problem of external validity?

Exactly the contrary! For all of them, mathematics was the key to reality  to the very reality that is producing what the myopic utilitarian experiences when he looks in all his naivety out of the window.

“Experience can, of course, guide us in our choice of serviceable mathematical concepts; it cannot possibly be the source from which they are derived; experience, of course, remains the sole criterion of the serviceability of a mathematical construction for physics, but the truly creative principle resides in mathematics. In a certain sense, therefore, I hold it to be true that pure thought is competent to comprehend the real, as the ancients dreamed.” (Einstein, 1934, p. 167)

Lawson's ontology suffers from several misunderstandings (2013): “The central message of Lawson’s critique of modern economics is that an economy is an “open system” but economists insist on dealing with it as if it were “closed.” (See intro)

This is true for equilibrium economics. And it is true that Orthodoxy is a failure. But now comes the logical blunder: “Modern economics has become increasingly irrelevant to the understanding of the real world. In his seminal book, Economics and Reality (1997) Tony Lawson traced this irrelevance to the failure of economists to match their deductive-axiomatic methods with their subject.” (See intro)

While Orthodoxy indeed applies the axiomatic-deductive method there is no necessary connection between the method and closed systems. Physicists apply mathematics and the axiomatic-deductive method for the description of a universe that certainly displays no equilibrium and no closure in the sense of orthodox economics. What has to be rejected is the notion of equilibrium/closure and not the deductive-axiomatic method.

Because they are fixated on equilibrium economics Tony Lawson and Lars Syll misunderstand the role of mathematics and the axiomatic-deductive method for scientific research. What indeed has to be criticized loud, clearly, and unswervingly is the abuse of mathematics and the axiomatic-deductive method by Orthodoxy.

For more on this all-important issue see the following threads:  math   axiom

Lars Syll's second error is “It’s about society” (see intro). Society is the subject matter of sociology. Economics is about how the economic system works. And the actual fact is that neither Orthodoxy nor Heterodoxy can give a scientifically acceptable account of how the economy we happen to live in works. The deeper reason is that both cannot apply the axiomatic-deductive method properly.

It is not such a good idea to dismiss mathematics and logic as funny intellectual wellness exercises. Heterodoxy cannot do without it. Traditional Heterodoxy is methodologically deep in the woods. This explains why Heterodoxy in general and Lars Syll, in particular, have produced not much, if anything, of scientific value to this day.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


References
Einstein, A. (1934). On the Method of Theoretical Physics. Philosophy of Science, 1(2): 163–169. URL
Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2013). Crisis and Methodology: Some Heterodox Misunderstandings. SSRN Working Paper Series, 2083519: 1–25. URL

Related 'Economics as storytelling and entertainment for the masses' and 'The new macroeconomic Paradigm' and 'If it isn’t macro-axiomatized, it isn’t economics' and 'From false micro to true macro: the new economic Paradigm'.

For more about disinfotainment see AXECquery.

February 2, 2016

Incompetence — the original sin in economics

Comment on Lars Syll on ‘Deductivism — the original sin in economics’

Blog-Reference and Blog-Reference on Feb 5 and Blog-Reference on Jul 23, 2019

Tony Lawson summarizes: “This emergence of the axiomatic method removed at a stroke various hitherto insurmountable constraints facing those who would mathematise the discipline of economics.”

This is not quite accurate, the mathematization of economics started before Hilbert’s general axiomatization of mathematics: “... economists have long been mathematicians without being aware of the fact. The unfortunate result is that they have generally been bad mathematicians, and their works must fall. Hence the explicit recognition of the mathematical character of the science was an almost necessary condition of any real improvement of the theory.” (Jevons, 1871, PS. 13)

The axiomatization of economics started even earlier: “To Senior belongs the signal honor of having been the first to make the attempt to state, consciously and explicitly, the postulates that are necessary and sufficient in order to build up … that little analytic apparatus commonly known as economic theory, or to put it differently, to provide for it an axiomatic basis.” (Schumpeter, 1994, p. 575)

Where Tony Lawson is right is that economists messed the whole thing up, and this resulted in the ongoing ridiculous mathiness discussion.

The key to formalization, axiomatics, or mathiness is “Formal axiomatic systems must be interpreted in some domain ... to become an empirical science.” (Boylan et al., 1995, p. 198)

Now, Debreu did explicitly the very opposite, that is, he disconnected “Allegiance to rigor dictates the axiomatic form of the analysis where the theory, in the strict sense, is logically entirely disconnected from its interpretations.” (Debreu, 1959, p. x)

It is well-known from where Debreu got his methodological inspiration “It seems clear that Debreu intended his Theory of Value to serve as the direct analog of Bourbaki’s Theory of Sets, right down to the title.” (Weintraub, 2002, p. 121)

Now, it is pretty obvious that Debreu missed the crucial point of Bourbaki’s axiomatic: “From the axiomatic point of view, mathematics appears thus as a storehouse of abstract forms — the mathematical structures; and it so happens — without our knowing why — that certain aspects of empirical reality fit themselves into these forms, as if through a kind of preadaptation. ... It is only in this sense of the word ‘form’ that one can call the axiomatic method a ‘formalism’.” (Bourbaki, 2005, p. 1276)

It was quite clear to Bourbaki that not all mathematical structures incorporate ‘certain aspect of empirical reality’, which means, that there is a “... whole crop of monster-structures, entirely without application.” (Bourbaki, 2005, p. 1275, fn. 9)

Hence, Debreu’s axiomatization of Walrasian General Equilibrium is a monster-structure that is due to Debreu’s misunderstanding of Bourbaki. It is not the axiomatic-deductive method that is wrong, it is neoclassical economics that is wrong.

Generally, it can be said that the so-called social scientists cannot get their heads around the essentials of the scientific method. Tony Lawson is one of them. It is quite obvious that no genuine scientist ever abused the axiomatic-deductive method by declaring green-cheese assumptions like constrained optimization and equilibrium as axioms. In marked contrast, economists never had any scruples to make fools of themselves: “most of what I and many others do is sorta-kinda neoclassical because it takes the maximization-and-equilibrium world as a starting point.” (Krugman).

Einstein explained in a short paragraph what the so-called social scientists do not understand to this very day “The basic concepts and laws which are not logically further reducible constitute the indispensable and not rationally deducible part of the theory [= axioms]. It can scarcely be denied that the supreme goal of all theory is to make the irreducible basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the adequate representation of a single datum of experience.” (Einstein, 1934, p. 165)

Note that Einstein treats axioms and experience as two sides of the same coin — just like Bourbaki — no disconnect here!

The fact of the matter is that both orthodox and heterodox economists have not been very skilled users of the scientific method to this day. This explains why economics is a failed science for more than 200 years.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


References
Bourbaki, N. (2005). The Architecture of Mathematics. In W. Ewald (Ed.), From Kant to Hilbert. A Source Book in the Foundations of Mathematics, Volume II, 1265–1276. Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press. (1948).
Boylan, T. A., and O’Gorman, P. F. (1995). Beyond Rhetoric and Realism in Economics. Towards a Reformulation of Economic Methodology. London: Routledge.
Debreu, G. (1959). Theory of Value. An Axiomatic Analysis of Economic Equilibrium. New Haven, London: Yale University Press.
Einstein, A. (1934). On the Method of Theoretical Physics. Philosophy of Science, 1(2): 163–169. URL
Jevons, W. S. (1871). The Theory of Political Economy. Library of Economics and Liberty. URL
Schumpeter, J. A. (1994). History of Economic Analysis. New York: Oxford University Press.
Weintraub, E. R. (2002). How Economics Became a Mathematical Science. Durham, London: Duke University Press.

***
REPLY to Calgacus on Jul 23, 2019

You say: “The logical faintness of these damns amounts to praise of neoclassical economics. So they have nothing to worry about from this kind of both overblown and inadequate critique.”

Frank Hahn was always very happy with the incompetent critics of the neoclassical research program: “The enemies, on the other hand, have proved curiously ineffective and they have very often aimed their arrows at the wrong targets.”

Related 'The stupidity of Heterodoxy is the life insurance of Orthodoxy.'


***

AXEC121i

August 29, 2015

Schumpeter's two axioms of discourse

Comment on Lars Syll on ‘Axiomatic economics — total horseshit’

Blog-Reference

I enjoyed Victor Aguilar's article, albeit — in rearview — sometimes for the wrong reasons. Aguilar's methodological critique of Tony Lawson is spot on, but he unnecessarily dilutes his argument by becoming personal.

Remember: occasionally, it may be an interesting question to ask why a man says what he says; but whatever the answer, it does not tell us anything about whether what he says is true or false. (Schumpeter, 1994, p. 11)

It is sufficient to demonstrate how Tony Lawson conflates taxonomy and deductive logic, but counterproductive to add in a footnote a derogatory remark about Marxism/Feminism.

It is also counterproductive to equate empiricism one-to-one with idiotism. While it is true that the empiricism of the Confederate artillerymen was indeed utterly dilettantish, this does not hold for the immensely valuable work of Tycho Brahe, for example.

Finally, it is counterproductive not to mention that there has also been some dilettantism in the application of the axiomatic-deductive method. For example, the philosopher Spinoza applied the method to prove the existence of God. More important for economists is that Debreu messed things up by choosing the wrong set of axioms.

So it is a bit misleading to play idiotic empiricism against the overwhelmingly successful axiomatization of Euler or Newton. It cannot be stressed enough that the success of the axiomatic-deductive method depends on the selection of axioms, as J. S. Mill already knew.

“What are the propositions which may reasonably be received without proof? That there must be some such propositions all are agreed, since there cannot be an infinite series of proof, a chain suspended from nothing. But to determine what these propositions are, is the opus magnum of the more recondite mental philosophy.” (2006, p. 746)

Orthodoxy is based on the following propositions: “HC1 economic agents have preferences over outcomes; HC2 agents individually optimize subject to constraints; HC3 agent choice is manifest in interrelated markets; HC4 agents have full relevant knowledge; HC5 observable outcomes are coordinated, and must be discussed with reference to equilibrium states. (Weintraub, 1985, p. 147)

What can be said with certainty is that this set of axioms has proven its worthlessness. Orthodoxy is a total failure according to formal and empirical criteria. This is the decisive point where Lawson, Aguilar, Zaman — and in addition, all economists and scientists who really understand the axiomatic-deductive method — agree.

Heterodoxy's most important task is to fully replace HC1 to HC5. As Schumpeter's 2nd axiom says: If we feel misgivings ..., all we have to do is to start appropriate research. Anything else is pure filibustering.(1994, p. 577)

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


References
Mill, J. S. (2006). Principles of Political Economy With Some of Their Applications to Social Philosophy, Volume 3, Books III-V of Collected Works of John Stuart Mill. Indianapolis: Liberty Fund. URL
Schumpeter, J. A. (1994). History of Economic Analysis. New York: Oxford University Press.
Weintraub, E. R. (1985). Joan Robinson’s Critique of Equilibrium: An Appraisal. American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 75(2): 146–149. URL

For details of the big picture, see cross-references Axiomatization.

May 19, 2013

Key Issues: Critique of legacy economics

Logical inconsistency:
... Keynes was simply arguing that microeconomic theory is false! Presumably, it is false because it is not logically consistent with all macrophenomena – such as persistent disequilibria – and thus, by modus tollens, at least one of the assumptions of microtheory is false and hence microtheory as a whole is false. (Boland, 2003, p. 143)

Shoddy argumentation:
The currently prevailing pattern of economic theorizing exhibits the following three characteristics: (1) a syncopated style of argument fluctuating back and forth between literary and symbolic modes of expression, (2) naive translation, or the loose paraphrasing of formulae into sentences, and (3) loose verbal reasoning for certain aspects of theoretical argumentation where explicit symbolic formulation is lacking. (Dennis, 1982, p. 698)
 Inappropriate copying of physics:
Thus many are inclined to blame inappropriate copying of physics for the willingness of neoclassicals to tolerate bizarrely unrealistic assumptions and to place everything historical, cultural, institutional, and even psychological outside the framework of economic analysis. (Porter, 1994, p. 128)

The drive to incorporate the formalism of Hamiltonian dynamics is one pertinent example of the triumph of technique over theoretical insight. (Mirowski, 1995, p. 376)  
Borrowing the wrong concepts from mathematics:
The discipline of economics has so far successfully resisted all efforts to alter its character as an exercise in how to reason deductively from axiomatic principles. That is, it has insisted on remaining the Euclidean geometry of the social sciences. (Eichner, 1979, p. 172)
Overemphasis of the mathematical method:
It is thus not at all surprising that mainstream contributions are found continually to be so unrealistic and explanatorily limited. The (mathematical) method, or rather the emphasis placed upon it in the modern economics academy, is the overriding problem.  (Lawson, 2012, p. 3)
Misapplication of mathematics:
A second class of economists contain those who have abundantly employed mathematical apparatus, but, misunderstanding its true use, or being otherwise diverted from a true theory, have built upon the sand. (Jevons, 1911, p. xxv)

Mock precision:
Much economic theorising to-day suffers, I think, because it attempts to apply highly precise and mathematical methods to material which is itself much too vague to support such treatment. (Keynes, quoted in Chick, 1998, p. 1864)
Lack of facts:
Next, the empirical background of economic science is definitely inadequate. Our knowledge of the relevant facts of economics is incomparably smaller than that commanded in physics at the time when the mathematization of that subject was achieved. ... It is due to the combination of the above-mentioned circumstances that mathematical economics has not achieved very much. (von Neumann and Morgenstern, 2007, p. 4)
Inconclusiveness of facts:
Even econometricians using identical, or almost identical, data sets are regularly found to produce quite contrasting conclusions, usually with little attempt at explanation. The systematic result here, as the econometrician Edward Leamer observes, is that: "hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analysis seriously". (Lawson, 2012, p. 9)

Denial of empirical refutation:
... suppose they [the economists] did reject all theories that were empirically falsified ... Nothing would be left standing; there would be no economics. (Hands, 2001, p. 404)
Misleading principles:
Now the rationality principle, which in the social sciences plays a role somewhat analogous to the universal laws of the natural sciences, is false, and if in addition the situational models are also false, then both the constituent elements of social theory are false. (Popper, 1994, p. 173)
Mistaken beliefs:
The notion that microeconomics is a branch of applied mathematics does economists more credit than several possible alternative explanations for its empirical weakness. ... It isolates the limitations of the theory in a factual supposition about the determinants of human behavior, one that economists share with all of us. But the supposition we all share is false, and so economics rests on a purely contingent, though nevertheless central, mistaken belief .... (Rosenberg, 1992, p. 247)
Lack of realism:
Upon leaving office, each new president of the American Economic Association gives the expected speech, showing that he knows full well it is all just a game, and chastises his colleagues for not being more realistic. (Hudson, 2010, p. 9)
Assumptionism:
Cunningham in 1891 remarked that in the choice of premises, “it is not always easy to tell when a professor of the dismal science is making a joke” and I suspect that Cunningham meant that if the professor was not joking, then he was making a fool of himself. (Viner, 1963, p. 12)

And no economist, if I may say so, has ever been helped toward its solution by starting his investigation on the basis of some general theory of value, particularly any theory of value which rested upon marginal utility or upon marginal disutility or upon some combination of the two. (Parry, 1921, p. 128)
Ignorance of time and history dependence:
The notion of time is so primitive and basic an element in man’s experience that its neglect by much economic theory constitutes an incredible puzzle. This puzzle is attributable, perhaps, to the almost irresistible lure of formalism – particularly one that cannot adequately handle time. (Rizzo, 1979, p. 1)

History dependence stares us in the face ..., but it is not the stuff of pure theory. (Hahn, 1991, p. 48)
Ignorance of institutions:
In the earlier part of the century there were major conflicts between institutional economists, who saw the particular arrangements by which particular economies conducted their economic affairs as essential, and neoclassical economists, who sought to see through these inessential details to the underlying fundamental forces - the forces of demand and supply. (Stiglitz, 1991, p. 136)
Counterfactual equilibrium and zero profits:
The Walrasian prices correspond to the Marshallian long-run equilibrium prices where every producer is making zero excess profits. ... But, from the macro perspective of of Walrasian general equilibrium, the total   profits in this case cannot be other that zero (otherwise, we would need a Santa Claus to provide the aggregated positive profit) ... (Boland, 2003, p. 150)
Questionable foundational assumptions and unjustifiable policy advice:
Much of economic theory is based on three questionable assumptions: (1) the world is deterministic; (2) decision makers act as if they know the values of all relevant parameters; and (3) consumers and firms respectively, act as if they were maximizing utility and profit. ... In order to tell the politicians and practitioners something about causes and best means, the economist needs the true theory or else he has not much more to offer than educated common sense or his personal opinion. Economists derive theorems, make predictions, and (!) suggest economic policies using arguments which explicitly or implicitly postulate the validity of the first two assumptions mentioned above. Such endeavors are unjustifiable unless it can be demonstrated that the most important doctrines of economics are insensitive to a relaxation of these two assumptions. (Stigum, 1991, pp. 29-30)
Wrong methodology:
The essence of contemporary mainstream economics does not lie at the level of substantive theory as most of its critics suggest, but at the level of methodology. (Lawson, 1997, p. 282)
Evasion of reality:
The modern history of economic theory is a tale of evasion of reality. Faced with the challenge of these vast changes and vital problems for over a century, it reacted by denying their existence in order to be able to produce a scientific system, a smoothly-functioning self-balancing model. (Balogh, 1982, p. 32)
No predictive capacity:
Economic theory seems permanently stuck at the level of generic predictions – predictions that some change will happen some time and some place, without ever telling us when and where and how much of a change will occur. (Rosenberg, 1994, p. 217)
An unfinished task:
It is good to have [the technically best study of equilibria], but perhaps the time has now come to see whether it can serve in an analysis of how economies behave. The most intellectually exciting question of our subject remains: is it true that the pursuit of private interest produces not chaos but coherence, and if so, how is it done? (Hahn, 1984, p. 102)
Lack of imagination:
Thousands upon thousands of scholars, as well as thousands of statesmen and men of affairs, have contributed their efforts to the attempt to understand the course of events of the economic world. And today this field of investigation is being cultivated more extensively, than ever before. How is it, then, that in all these years, and with all the undoubted talent that has been lavished upon it, the subject of economics has advanced so little? (Schoeffler, 1955, p. 2)

In other words, the main developments in economics of the twentieth century ... had been more a matter of form than of substance. ... Little new of any great significance has been learned about the workings of markets since Adam Smith and ... Smith added much less to the discussion than most economists have commonly supposed. (Nelson, 2006, p. 298)

Yet most economists neither seek alternative theories nor believe that they can be found. (Hausman, 1992, p. 248)
Lack of convincing alternatives:
If one calls those individuals working in the field of microeconomic foundations of Keynesian economics Keynesian-economic theorist, then, as Hahn has said, these Keynesians were not much better. (Morishima, 1984, p. 57)

For as I said at the outset, the citadel is not at all secure and the fact that it is safe from a bombardement of soap bubbles does not mean that it is safe. (Hahn, 1984, p. 78)
No future:
There seems to be a quiet confidence in the profession that we are moving, if only slowly, towards a more scientific basis for economics. ... Paradoxically many of those who have contributed much to the development of general equilibrium theory are less complacent. (Kirman, 1989, p. 126)

... anything based on this mock-up is unlikely to fly. (Hahn, 1981, p. 1036)

Neoclassical economics is metaphorically boxed in, and cannot extricate itself. (Mirowski, 1995, p. 389)

The disciplines that we currently call “social sciences” may accumulate gossip or spot correlations, but Rosenberg believes they will never succeed in formulating laws and theories with the force and fruitfulness of those in the natural sciences. (Hausman, 1992, p. 326)

What is now taught as standard economic theory will eventually disappear, no trace of it will remain in the universities or boardrooms because it simply doesn’t work ... (McCauley, 2006, p. 17)
Ideological bias:
Evidently, the tools are not strong enough to discriminate among fundamentally different hypotheses, or at least not strong enough to overcome differences in prior beliefs, beliefs which are often influenced by ideological concerns. (Stiglitz, 1991, p. 134)
Political bias:
Broadly speaking, policies fall into two categories: laissez-faire or interventionist public regulation. Each set of advocates has its own preferred mode of mathematical treatment, choosing the approach that best bolsters their own conclusions. (Hudson, 2010, p. 6)
Lack of public assurance:
... it is clear that the public's lack of faith in the scientific nature of economic knowledge is a fact, past and present. (Benetti and Cartelier, 1997, pp. 211-212)
Pseudo-science:
Suffice it to say that, in my opinion, what we presently possess by way of so-called pure economic theory is objectively indistinguishable from what the physicist Richard Feynman, in an unflattering sketch of nonsense "science," called "cargo cult science". (Clower, 1994, p. 809)
Pre-science:
The position I now favor is that economics is a pre-science, rather like astronomy before Copernicus, Brahe and Galileo. I still hold out hope of better behavior in the future, but given the travesties of logic and anti-empiricism that have been committed in its name, it would be an insult to the other sciences to give economics even a tentative membership of that field. (Keen, 2011, p. 158)

Economics is a peculiar subject. It looks like a science both in its formal structure and its basic concern with observable reality. And yet economics does not reveal the sort of cumulative progress in the practical manipulation of reality that is one of the abiding characteristics of physics, chemistry, geology and parts of biology. (Blaug, 1990, p. 233)

Within the whole of his [the economist's] science, or what he insists on calling science, no generally recognised result is to be found, as is also the case for theology and for roughly the same reasons; there is no single doctrine taken to be a scientific truth without the diametrically opposed view being similarly upheld by authors of high repute. (Wicksell, quoted in Deane, 1983, p. 8)

We are merely at the threshold of an economic science. (Morgenstern, 1941, p. 374)
Sloppiness:
Few people, and least of all we economists ourselves, are prone to offer us congratulations on our intellectual achievements. Moreover our performance is, and always was, not only modest but also disorganized. Methods of fact-finding and analysis that are and were considered substandard or wrong on principle by some of us do prevail and have prevailed widely with others. (Schumpeter, 1994, p. 6)

I think it is the lack of quite sharply defined concepts that the main difficulty lies, and not in any intrinsic difference between the fields of economics and other sciences. (von Neumann, quoted in Mirowski, 2002, p. 146 fn. 49)
Hubris:
... the economists, like the theoretical sociologists of old, only more so, tried to solve the largest possible problems from the least possible knowledge. (Postan, quoted in Viner, 1963, p. 12)
Counterproductive organization:
It could be argued, moreover, that the present organization of the profession is itself a negative factor to the extent that the requirement of rapidly obtained results discourages researchers from entering the domains that are most uncertain (even if they are essential). (Benetti und Cartelier, 1997, p. 215)

We are in danger of losing our grip on the concepts of truth, evidence, objectivity, disinterested inquiry. The preposterous environment in which academic work is presently conducted is inhospitable to genuine inquiry, hospitable to the sham and the fake.  (Haack, 1997, p. 1)
Increasing incompetence:
The last thirty years seem to this observer to have been downhill almost all the way. So much of the literature ... I see as silly beyond all expectation and unscholarly beyond all endurance. (Leijonhufvud, 1998, p. 234)
 Reluctance to scrap obsolete intellectual capital:
Gary Becker has suggested that a substantial resistance to the acceptance of new ideas by scientists can be explained by two familiar economic concepts. One is the concept of specific human capital: the established scholar possesses a valuable capital asset in his command over a particular body of knowledge. That capital would be reduced if his knowledge were made obsolete by the general acceptance of a new theory. Hence, established scholars should, in their own self-interest, attack new theories, possibly even more than they do in the absence of joint action. The second concept is risk aversion, which leads young scholars to prefer mastery of established theories to seeking radically different theories. Scientific innovators, like adventurers in general, are probably not averse to risk, but for the mass of scholars in a discipline, risk aversion is a strong basis for scientific conservatism. (Stigler, 1983, p. 538), see also (Sy, 2012, pp. 71-73)
Failed axiomatization:
The formal foundations of legacy economics are indefensible. (AXEC)
 
References
Balogh, T. (1982). The Irrelevance of Conventional Economics. London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson.
Benetti, C., and Cartelier, J. (1997). Economics as an Exact Science: the Persistence of a Badly Shared Conviction. In A. d’Autume, and J. Cartelier (Eds.), Is
Economics Becoming a Hard Science?, 204–219. Cheltenham, Brookfield: Edward Elgar.
Blaug, M. (1990). Economic Theories, True or False? Aldershot, Brookfield: Edward Elgar.
Boland, L. A. (2003). The Foundations of Economic Method. A Popperian Perspective. London, New York: Routledge, 2nd edition.
Chick, V. (1998). On Knowing One’s Place: The Role of Formalism in Economics. Economic Journal, 108(451): 1859–1869. URL
Deane, P. (1983). The Scope and Method of Economic Science. Economic Journal, 93(369): 1–12. URL
Clower, R. W. (1994). Economics as an Inductive Science. Southern Economic Journal, 60(4): 805–814.
Dennis, K. (1982). Economic Theory and the Problem of Translation (I). Journal of Economic Issues, 16(3): 691–712. URL
Eichner, A. S. (1979). A Look Ahead. In A. S. Eichner (Ed.), A Guide to Post-Keynesian Economics,  165–184. London, Basingstoke: Macmillan.
Haack, S. (1997). Science, Scientism, and Anti-Science in the Age of Preposterism. Skeptical Inquirer, 21(6): 1–7.
Hahn, F. H. (1981). Review: A Neoclassical Analysis of Macroeconomic Policy. Economic Journal, 91(364): 1036–1039.
Hahn, F. H. (1984). Equilibrium and Macroeconomics. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Hahn, F. H. (1991). The Next Hundred Years. Economic Journal, 101(404): 47–50.
Hands, D.W. (2001). Reflection without Rules. Economic Methodology and Contemporary Science Theory. Cambridge, New York, etc: Cambridge University Press.
Hausman, D. M. (1992). The Inexact and Separate Science of Economics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Hudson, M. (2010). The Use and Abuse of Mathematical Economics. real-world economics review, (55): 2–22.
Jevons, W. S. (1911). The Theory of Political Economy. London, Bombay, etc.: Macmillan, 4th edition.
Keen, S. (2011). Debunking Economics. London, New York: Zed Books, rev. edition.
Kirman, A. (1989). The Intrinsic Limits of Modern Economic Theory: The Emperor has No Clothes. Economic Journal, Conference Papers, 99(395): 126–139.
Lawson, T. (1997). Economics and Reality. New York: Routledge.
Lawson, T. (2012). Mathematical Modelling and Ideology in the Economics Academy: Competing Explanations of the Failings of the Modern Discipline? Economic Thought, 1(1): 3–22.
Leijonhufvud, A. (1998). Discussion: Involuntary Unemployment One More Time. In R. E. Backhouse, D. M. Hausman, U. Mäki, and A. Salanti (Eds.),
Economics and Methodology. Crossing Boundaries, 225–235. Houndmills, Basingstoke, London: Palgrave.
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Mirowski, P. (1995). More Heat than Light. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
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Morgenstern, O. (1941). Professor Hicks on Value and Capital. Journal of Political Economy, 49(3): 361–393.
Morishima, M. (1984). The Good and Bad Use of Mathematics. In P. Wiles and G. Routh (Eds.), Economics in Disarray, 51–73. Oxford: Blackwell.
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Sy, W. (2012). Endogenous Crisis and the Economic Paradigm. real-world economics review, (59): 67–82.
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von Neumann, J., and Morgenstern, O. (2007). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton: Princeton University Press. (1944).




© 2013 EKH, except original quotes 

December 30, 2014

From anything goes to nothing goes right ― economists' silly excuses

Comment on Lars Syll on 'Mainstream macroeconomics distorts our understanding of economic reality'

Blog-Reference

Economists owe the world the true economic theory, that is, a theory that satisfies the scientific standards of material and formal consistency and that explains how the economy works.

Economists have not delivered. But they have delivered a lot of reasons why they have not delivered. Complexity is number one. Hypotheses-testing-is-not-possible is number two. Duhem-Quine comes next. Very popular is also the solidarity of ignorance: “There is no objective truth in economics,” “Nobody understands the whole picture. Everybody gets a piece of it.” (Roosevelt)

Here is the mother of all excuses: “Economics is a strange sort of discipline. The booby traps I mentioned often make it sound as if it is all just a matter of opinion. That is not so. Economics is not a Science with a capital S. It lacks the experimental method as a way of testing hypotheses. . . . There are always differences of opinion at the cutting edge of a science, . . . . But they last longer in economics . . . and there are reasons for that. As already mentioned, rival theories cannot be put to an experimental test. All there is to observe is history, and history does not conduct experiments: too many things are always happening at once. The inferences that can be made from history are always uncertain, always disputable, . . . You can’t even count on a long and undisturbed run of history, because the “laws” of behavior change and evolve. Excuses, excuses. But the point is not to provide excuses.” (Solow, 1998, pp. x-xi)

Indeed.

When we turn to Heterodoxy things seem to get better at first, but then they become abysmal.

Tony Lawson has properly identified the methodological blunder of green cheese assumptionism. In short, it is inadmissible to put assumptions like optimization, equilibrium, decreasing returns, perfect competition etcetera into the premises. This mistake is known as petitio principii and J. S. Mill, the founder of economic methodology, dealt with it at length in his System of Logic (see also 2014).

The crucial point is that standard economics is based on behavioral axioms (McKenzie, 2008) and this is not a solid enough foundation: “. . . if we wish to place economic science upon a solid basis, we must make it completely independent of psychological assumptions and philosophical hypotheses.” (Slutzky, cited in Mirowski, 1995, p. 362)

Axel Leijonhufvud sees this quite clearly: “Our axioms are, after all, a good deal shakier than Euclid’s.” Indeed, but then comes the Great Heterodox Methodological Horror.

Instead of replacing the shaky behavioral axioms with something objective and solid, Heterodoxy rejects the axiomatic-deductive method (2012). Does it really come as a surprise that since Lawson has written about open systems Heterodoxy has not produced much scientific value? Instead, it has become the most outspoken proponent of the pluralism of wish-wash.

Note that the profit theory of Keynes, Kalecki, or Keen, for example, is as far away from reality as any mainstream profit theory, “... surely, therefore, they fail to capture the essence of a capitalist market economy.” (Obrinsky, 1981, p. 495)

Each paradigm stands or falls with its premises. For the scientific beginners among economists it is all in Wikipedia: “When the premises are certain, true, and primary, and the conclusion formally follows from them, this is demonstration, and produces scientific knowledge of a thing.” (Aristotle, Analytica)

For the correct axiomatic foundations of the open market system see (2014). Seventeen years of methodological distortion are over for Lars Syll ― thank Heaven and Euclid.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


References
Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2012). Crisis and Methodology: Some Heterodox Misunderstandings. SSRN Working Paper Series, 2083519: 1–22. URL
Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2014a). Economics for Economists. SSRN Working Paper Series, 2517242: 1–29. URL
Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2014b). Objective Principles of Economics. SSRN Working Paper Series, 2418851: 1–19. URL
McKenzie, L. W. (2008). General Equilibrium. In S. N. Durlauf, and L. E. Blume (Eds.), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics Online, 1–18. Palgrave Macmillan, 2nd edition. URL
Mirowski, P. (1995). More Heat than Light. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Obrinsky, M. (1981). The Profit Prophets. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 3(4): 491–502. URL
Solow, R. M. (1998). Foreword, volume William Breit and Roger L. Ranson: The Academic Scribblers. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 3rd edition.

For more about excuses see AXECquery.
For more about science see AXECquery.

May 24, 2015

From one roadside ditch straight into the other

Comment on Lars Syll on ‘Modelling consistency and real world non-coherence in mainstream economics’

Blog-Reference

Walras has to be credited for making great methodological progress in comparison to what he called the English School, or, what may be called with more accuracy the Cambridge School of Loose Verbal Reasoning.

What Walras correctly pointed out was (i) that partial analysis does not allow for generalizations and therefore had to be replaced by total analysis and (ii) that the forbidding wish-wash of his contemporaries had to be replaced by rigorous argument.

The methodological credo of the Cambridge School of Loose Verbal Reasoning comes in different wordings but always with the same irresistible message for muddle heads.

“Marshall followed the maxim: Better to be ambigous and relevant than precise and irrelevant.” (Colander, 1995, p. 283)

“Another danger is that you may ‘precise everything away’ and be left with only a comparative poverty of meaning. ... Such a problem was avoided, said Keynes, by Marshall who used loose definitions but allowed the reader to infer his meaning from ‘the richness of context’.” (Coates, 2007, p. 87)

“For Keynes as for Post Keynesians the guiding motto is ‘it is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong!’" (Davidson, 1984, p. 574)

The Elements are quite clear on multiple occasions about Walras's take on proto-scientific economics.

“To state a theory is one thing; to prove it is another. I know that in economics so-called proofs which are actually nothing more than gratuitous assertions are doled out and find acceptance again and again. And precisely for this reason, I submit that economics will not attain the status of a science until economists are compelled to demonstrate that which they have hitherto been content, in the main, mainly to assert.” (Walras, 2010, p. 427)

Walras's critique, no doubt, was valid and still is. He got economics out of a deep roadside ditch — but only to steer it into the other. He based his approach on assumptions like utility, optimization, perfect foreknowledge, production function, supply/demand function, perfect competition, capital, equilibrium, etcetera. All these notions are nonentities.

Now the problem is: one can formulate a green-cheese assumption as vivid or colorful or suggestive or precise or rigorous as one likes — it does not help.

As Lawson put it: “It is a form of modelling consistency ... that underpins the notion of equilibrium itself. In modern mainstream economics the category equilibrium has nothing to do with the features of the real economy.” (See intro)

To paint dancing angels-on-a-pinpoint or supply-demand-equilibrium does not make either real. The crucial methodological mistake, however, is not so much in the painting or the formalism but in the underlying green-cheese assumptions.

Equilibrium is a nonentity and therefore all equilibrium models are false. There are many differences between Walras and the post-Walrasians. These do not count at all. Both approaches are based on the same set of nonentities. Therefore both are irrelevant.

Unfortunately, heterodox methodologists simply do not get the crucial point. “Tony Lawson traces this irrelevance to the failure of economists to match their deductive-axiomatic methods with their subject.” (See intro)

The irrelevance of economics since Walras is not due to the deductive-axiomatic method but to green-cheese assumptionism.

Note in passing that Walras's general equilibrium is a zero profit economy (2015). Since his time economists have not become tired of presenting and discussing models which every intelligent layman could immediately dismiss as irrelevant.

Economics is still in the scientific roadside ditches — one half of economists is trapped in the Cambridge ditch the other in the Laussane ditch, neither moves along the real-world road.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


References
Coates, J. (2007). The Claims of Common Sense. Moore, Wittgenstein, Keynes and
the Social Sciences. Cambridge, New York, etc.: Cambridge University Press.
Colander, D. (1995). Marshallian General Equilibrium Analysis. Eastern Economic Journal, 21(3): 281–293. URL
Davidson, P. (1984). Reviving Keynes’s Revolution. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 6(4): 561–575. URL
Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2015). Essentials of Constructive Heterodoxy: Profit. SSRN Working Paper Series, 2575110: 1–18. URL
Walras, L. (2010). Elements of Pure Economics. London, New York: Routledge. (1874).

December 30, 2014

What the Top 20 heterodox economists say

Comment Lars Syll on  'Mainstream macroeconomics distorts our understanding of economic reality'

Blog-Reference

In its present state, economics is unsatisfactory. Most economists can agree with this, albeit for different reasons. It is not surprising then that blaming and debunking flourish. Not much can be said against this, except that it is a detour. As Schumpeter, one of the 20 top heterodox economists (see here), already noted: “If we feel misgivings nevertheless, all we have to do is to start appropriate research. Anything else is pure filibustering.” (1994, p. 577)

So, what is urgently needed is a Paradigm Shift. Is Heterodoxy following Schumpeter's advice? What can be seen all around resembles nothing so much as pure filibustering.

The two criteria of science are material and formal consistency. The latter is guaranteed by the axiomatic-deductive method. What does Georgescu-Roegen, one of the 20 top heterodox economists, say about axiomatization (= arithmetization in his terminology)?

“Lest this position is misinterpreted again by some casual reader, let me repeat that my point is not that arithmetization of science is undesirable. Whenever arithmetization can be worked out, its merits are above all words of praise. My point is that wholesale arithmetization is impossible, that there is valid knowledge even without arithmetization, and that mock arithmetization is dangerous if peddled as genuine.” (Georgescu-Roegen, 1971, p. 15)

Repeat: the merits of axiomatization are above all words of praise (if properly applied, of course, which is not the case with Orthodoxy).

Tony Lawson, also one of the 20 top heterodox economists, on the other hand, did not get tired for 17 years of characterizing deductivism as the main culprit of all that went wrong in economics: “In his seminal book, Economics and Reality (1997) Tony Lawson traced this irrelevance to the failure of economists to match their deductive-axiomatic methods with their subject.” (see intro)

It would be helpful to learn which of the two top heterodox economists is right on methodology.

We can agree that the axioms of Orthodoxy are uncertain and false. This fully explains its failure. But what about the premises and the formal consistency of Heterodoxy?

The profit theories of Marx, Schumpeter, Keynes, Kalecki, Davidson, Minsky, and Keen, all on the list of the 20 top heterodox economists, are provably false (2014; 2011a; 2011c; 2011b; 2013b). Despite the obvious fact that they cannot all be correct at the same time, all are propagated under the banner of pluralism as heterodox alternatives. As it happens, they are all different AND false. Real scientists would feel the need to clear up this internal contradiction and not hail it as freedom of opinion.

Is the heterodox understanding of economic reality less or just as confused as DSGE or even worse if that is possible at all (2013a)?

By not strictly insisting on material and formal consistency Orthodoxy and Heterodoxy in effect cooperate on the widely visible crappyfication of economics.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


References
Georgescu-Roegen, N. (1971). The Entropy Law and the Economic Process. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2011a). Schumpeter and the Essence of Profit. SSRN Working Paper Series, 1845771: 1–26. URL
Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2011b). What is Wrong With Heterodox Economics? Kalecki’s Profit Theory as an Example. SSRN Working Paper Series, 1845803: 1–9. URL
Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2011c). Why Post Keynesianism is Not Yet a Science. SSRN Working Paper Series, 1966438: 1–15. URL
Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2013a). Confused Confusers: How to Stop Thinking Like an Economist and Start Thinking Like a Scientist. SSRN Working Paper Series, 2207598: 1–16. URL
Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2013b). Debunking Squared. SSRN Working Paper Series, 2357902: 1–5. URL
Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2014). Profit for Marxists. SSRN Working Paper Series, 2414301: 1–25. URL
Schumpeter, J. A. (1994). History of Economic Analysis. New York: Oxford University Press.

For the Top 20 Heterodox Economics Books see here and here

February 8, 2021

Occasional Tweets: Economists and philosophers ― creatures from the scientific swamp

 

Economics and Philosophy

“The moral of the story is simply this: it takes a new theory, and not just the destructive exposure of assumptions or the collection of new facts, to beat an old theory.” (Blaug)

July 6, 2016

Ending the economic Froschmäusekrieg a.k.a. Batrachomyomachia

Comment on Lars Syll on ‘Paul Krugman — nothing but a die-hard neoclassical economist’

Blog-Reference

The Battle of Frogs and Mice, a.k.a. Orthodoxy vs. Heterodoxy, has become rather stagnant, so let us shorten the agony with some clear-cut arbitral awards.

Syll: “Despite all his radical rhetoric, Krugman is — where it really counts — nothing but a die-hard neoclassical economist.”

Krugman says on his blog, “most of what I and many others do is sorta-kinda neoclassical because it takes the maximization-and-equilibrium world as a starting point.”

Judgment :#1 Krugman is a neoclassical economist, always was, and always said so, and everybody got it. Stop being surprised, Lars Syll. The point at issue is NOT that Krugman is a Neoclassical but that his starting point, i.e., the neoclassical axiom set, is false.

Krugman: “... this is exactly the kind of situation in which words alone can create an illusion of logical coherence that dissipates when you try to do the math.” In other words, formalization and modeling can be helpful to clarify the issue.

Georgescu-Roegen: “Lest this position is misinterpreted again by some casual reader, let me repeat that my point is not that arithmetization of science is undesirable. Whenever arithmetization can be worked out, its merits are above all words of praise. My point is that wholesale arithmetization is impossible, that there is valid knowledge even without arithmetization, and that mock arithmetization is dangerous if peddled as genuine.”

Syll: “That’s a methodological reductionist straightjacket.”

Judgment: Krugman and Georgescu-Roegen are right. Lars Syll is wrong.

Syll: “The only economic analysis that Krugman and other mainstream economists accept is the one that takes place within the analytic-formalistic modeling strategy that makes up the core of mainstream economics.”

Krugman on several occasions: “where’s your model?” and “what’s your alternative?”

Lewis: “There is no example, not even a vague outline, of what Prof. Syll might regard as a satisfactory economic analysis of 'an open system where complex and relational structures and agents interact'. Because it is devoid of any such substance, Prof. Syll’s argument provides no understanding of how Krugman’s many errors could have been avoided.

Judgment: Lars Syll has never presented an alternative. His advice: “I would rather suggest you read Keynes, Minsky, Polanyi, Galbraith, Myrdal, Hodgson, Keen, Mirowski, Lawson, Davidson, Kalecki, Chick, Dow” is hand waving and does not count as an alternative because Keynes’, Minsky’s, Kalecki’s, Keen’s, Davidson’s and other heterodox economists’ models are also defective, i.e. provably false. Lawson, Chick, Dow are failed methodologists because they cannot even spot elementary logical blunders, which are entirely sufficient for the refutation of a theory/model.

Syll: “That isn’t pluralism.”

Judgment: Science is about clear-cut true/false and the very opposite of the pluralism of false theories. Either Orthodoxy is true, or Heterodoxy is true; then either Orthodoxy is thrown out of science or Heterodoxy. Except that both are false, then both are thrown out of science.

Syll: “Validly deducing things from patently unreal assumptions — that we all know are purely fictional — makes most of the modeling exercises pursued by mainstream economists rather pointless. It’s simply not the stuff that real understanding and explanation in science is made of.”

Aristotle: “When the premises are certain, true, and primary, and the conclusion formally follows from them, this is demonstration, and produces scientific knowledge of a thing.”

Judgment: Lars Syll and Aristotle are right. Economics is currently based on false axioms. Both Walrasian and Keynesian axioms have to be fully replaced in order to produce scientific knowledge of the economy. After more than 200 years of producing scientific garbage, this task has top priority. Concrete proposals are urgently needed. Lars Syll has none.

Hickey: “There is nothing wrong with using a simple IS-LM approach in some cases as a gadget.”

Judgment: IS-LM has already died in the cradle (2014a). You are way behind the curve.

Pontus: “Banks are only intermediary in a certain sense: Any loan that is granted implies that someone’s spending exceeds his or her income. That does necessarily imply that someone else’s spending must fall short of his or her income.”

Judgment: You are way behind the curve (2014b).

Wilder: “National income accounting identifies a category it calls 'saving' that it opposes in its double‑entry scheme to 'investment'. Honestly, I have to say it does not make a lot of sense: while investment is spending and transactional, saving is not.”

Judgment: This matter has already been settled (2012). You are way behind the curve.

Nanikore: “Samuelson’s project has ultimately reached its inevitable end — but the subject which has invested so much in it is finding reality hard to swallow. I don’t know what it is going to take to finally kill the beast.”

Judgment: Yes, you are in dire straits. But could you now stop repeating it over and over again and proceed to the inescapable Paradigm Shift?

Mellechman: “True, setting out such a model would imply accepting the core assumptions of what you call the ur-model.”

Judgment: Nonsense of the worst sort. Nobody is obliged to accept the core assumptions, a.k.a. neoclassical axioms. Just the opposite, as Keynes told his fellow economists long ago: “The classical theorists resemble Euclidean geometers in a non-Euclidean world who, discovering that in experience straight lines apparently parallel often meet, rebuke the lines for not keeping straight — as the only remedy for the unfortunate collisions which are occurring. Yet, in truth, there is no remedy except to throw over the axiom of parallels and to work out a non-Euclidean geometry. Something similar is required to-day in economics.”

So, let us end the Froschmäusekrieg and start doing real science.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


References
Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2012). The Common Error of Common Sense: An Essential Rectification of the Accounting Approach. SSRN Working Paper Series, 2124415: 1–23. URL
Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2014a). Loanable Funds vs. Endogenous Money: Krugman is Wrong, Keen is Right. SSRN Working Paper Series, 2389341: 1–17. URL
Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2014b). Mr. Keynes, Prof. Krugman, IS-LM, and the End of Economics as We Know It. SSRN Working Paper Series, 2392856: 1–19. URL

#1 All judgments are backed in greater detail, see blog or working papers before jumping to silly conclusions.

For the details about the definitive resolution of the I=S/IS-LM issue, see cross-references.

November 3, 2025

Occasional X: Economists’ eternal problem with methodology (X)


For more about Lawson, see AXECquery

December 30, 2014

Corroboration and falsification

Comment on Lars Syll on 'Mainstream macroeconomics distorts our understanding of economic reality'

You write: “Realism, can be many things.”

So, how many realities are there? I cannot remember that Lawson's ontology includes the claim that everybody is entitled to his own reality. Welcome to the Hicks-Drive Club.

“Let us call the drive to nudge any question to the point of inconclusiveness, overload, or peaceful cohabitation of manifest contradictions the Hicks Drive. It is a — spontaneous or conscious — scientific survival strategy because: “… you cannot prove a vague theory wrong.” (Feynman) See here.

And “By not strictly insisting on material and formal consistency Orthodoxy and Heterodoxy in effect cooperate on the widely visible crappyfication of economics.” See here.

Above, I have quoted the relationship between monetary profit, distributed profit, investment, and saving. Each variable is measurable, thus the equation is testable in principle with the precision of two decimal places against Keynes's I=S.

That is scientific realism, and it has a unique answer, and the answer is that Keynes is falsified.

What next?

“In economics we should strive to proceed, wherever we can, exactly according to the standards of the other, more advanced, sciences, where it is not possible, once an issue has been decided, to continue to write about it as if nothing had happened.” (Morgenstern, 1941, pp. 369-370)

Time for Orthodoxy and Heterodoxy to leave the scientific Neanderthal.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


References
Morgenstern, O. (1941). Professor Hicks on Value and Capital. Journal of Political Economy, 49(3): 361–393. URL

April 28, 2012

The Rhetoric of Failure: A Hyper-Dialog About Method in Economics and How to Get Things Going {29}


Abstract  All are agreed that orthodox economics is unsatisfactory but there is wide disagreement, especially among heterodox critics, whether the problems lie at the level of substantive theory or at the level of methodology. This paper gives first an overview of the methodological questions at issue. The frame of reference includes J. S. Mill, Jevons, Popper, Keynes, and Lawson. Drawing on the conclusions, the domain of economics is subsequently refocused. Human behavior is moved from the center to the periphery. From elementary systemic properties the relation of income and profit is then consistently derived. This solves the profit



April 14, 2026

Occasional X: Clueless economists / Science (CCXCXVII)

September 3, 2015

What comes after the methodological Pyrrhic Wars?

Comment on Aguilar on ‘Critique of Tony Lawson on Neoclassical Economics’

Blog-Reference

One of the best examples of idiotic empiricism has been given by Bacon: “Bacon, the philosopher of science, was, quite consistently, an enemy of the Copernican hypothesis. Don’t theorize, he said, but open your eyes and observe without prejudice, and you cannot doubt that the Sun moves and that the Earth is at rest.” (Popper, 1994, p. 84)

On the other hand, one of the best examples of idiotic deductivism is to be found in economics and has been delivered by Debreu’s General Equilibrium Theory.

The horror of methodological warfare in economics is twofold:
(i) Sound empiricism, e.g. Brahe, has been played against idiotic deductivism.
(ii) Genial deductivism, e.g. Euler, Newton, Einstein, has been played against idiotic empiricism.

Unfortunately — as you have argued since 1999 — Heterodoxy has not manged to get out of this quagmire of false alternatives. To the contrary, the whole jabberwocky reincarnated as mathiness debate.*

What should be evident by now to every economist is that science is not defined by either/or but by the synthesis of sound empiricism and genial deductivism.

After the failure of Orthodoxy a paradigm shift is indispensable which consists in the replacement of the old neoclassical axioms by a new set of axioms. Heterodoxy has to secure its own foundations.

“For it can fairly be insisted that no advance in the elegance and comprehensiveness of the theoretical superstructure can make up for the vague and uncritical formulation of the basic concepts and postulates, and sooner or later ... attention will have to return to the foundations.” (Hutchison, 1960, p. 5)

Both orthodox and heterodox economics is stuck at exactly this point: no new axioms — no future.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


References
Hutchison, T.W. (1960). The Significance and Basic Postulates of Economic Theory. New York, NY: Kelley.
Popper, K. R. (1994). The Myth of the Framework. In Defence of Science and Rationality., chapter Science: Problems, Aims, Responsibilities, pages 82–111. London, New York, NY: Routledge.

* See ‘At last, mathiness problem settled

Preceding post ‘Schumpeter’s two axioms of discourse
For details of the bigger picture see cross-references Paradigm shift

December 30, 2014

Glory

Comment on Lars Syll on 'Mainstream macroeconomics distorts our understanding of economic reality'

Blog-Reference

“In tradition standard economic textbooks, the market phenomena are described in the framework of laws of supply and demand and market equilibrium. Historically this framework has been widely criticized over centuries by different schools of economic thoughts. However, other economic schools have not come up with a different and convincing framework.” (Wayne, 2014, p. 14)

There is no understanding of the fundamental economic phenomena. This is what Heterodoxy has always criticized. So far, so good. Yet, Lawson's new ontology/methodology also flatlined (2012), thus verifying Popper ― at least as economics methodology is concerned: “Profound truths are not to be expected of methodology.” (Popper, 1980, p. 54)

The dustbin is full. Time to come up with a consistent theoretical framework.

“It is brilliance of imagination which makes the glory of science.” (G. C. Evans, in Weintraub, 2002, p. 57)

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


References
Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2012). Crisis and Methodology: Some Heterodox Misunderstandings.
SSRN Working Paper Series, 2083519: 1–22. URL
Popper, K. R. (1980). The Logic of Scientific Discovery. London, Melbourne,
Sydney: Hutchison, 10th edition.
Wayne, J. J. (2014). Fundamental Equation of Economics. SSRN Working Paper
Series, 2522492: 1–31. URL
Weintraub, E. R. (2002). How Economics Became a Mathematical Science. Durham, London: Duke University Press.

November 30, 2015

Heterodoxy: cross-references

Posts
  • Your economics is refuted on all counts: here is the real thing   here
  • Heterodoxy’s trouble with macro   here
  • Trust in economics as a science?   here
  • #DrainTheScientificSwamp   here
  • The failure of Post-Keynesianism   here
  • Causality in economics   here
  • Economics should never be a substitute for thinking   here
  • Links on Lars P. Syll’s ‘Wren-Lewis insults medical science’   here
  • Heterodox economics: When stupidity becomes a public danger   here
  • The biggest scientific mistake of the last centuries, and it has much to do with academic economists   here
  • “I never learned maths, so I had to think” ― another False-Hero-Memorial   here
  • Economics: Math is NOT the problem, scientific incompetence is   here
  • Real-World Economics: The sanctuary of stupidity and corruption   here
  • What’s the use of economists?   here
  • The inexorable paradigm shift in economics   here
  • There is no soft science only soft brains   here
  • Neoclassics and MMT ― much like pest and cholera   here
  • Is Lars Syll’s stupidity really infinite?   here
  • Why is economics a total scientific failure?   here
  • Overreach: Economists have their fingers in every pie except real economics   here
  • Stop beating mainstream economics ― it is long dead   here
  • Knowledge is attainable ― even in economics   here
  • Economists: political trolls since 200+ years   here
  • Heterodoxy ― an axiomatic failure just like Orthodoxy   here
  • Cryptoeconomics ― the best of Lars Syll’s spam folder   here
  • Cryptoeconomics ― the best of Real-World Economics Review’s spam folder   here
  • Time to retire political economists   here
  • Lars Syll, fake scientist   here
  • Are MMTers stupid or corrupt or both?   here
  • Economics: Defending the indefensible   here
  • Throw them out! Orthodox and heterodox economists are unfit for science   here
  • Dear philosophers, economics is a systems science   here
  • A brief history of soapbox economics   here
  • Why Heterodoxy is no real alternative to mainstream economics   here
  • The profit theory is false since Adam Smith   here
  • Heterodoxy and Pluralism, too, are proto-scientific garbage   here
  • How to make economics a science   here
  • Note on Edward Fullbrook’s My evening with Joan Robinson and the Tractatus   here
  • Why does Heterodoxy not abolish the fake Nobel?   here
  • Social science is NOT a science but a sitcom   here
  • Why is economics such a scientific embarrassment?   here
  • Austerity: Who takes the little man for a ride?   here
  • The abject failure of orthodox and heterodox distribution theory   here
  • Economics: a hereditary mental disease with scientific incompetence as father and political fraud as mother   here
  • Refutation of Asad Zaman’s heterodox methodology: all arguments you ever need   here
  • Why don’t you do what Joan Robinson told you to do?   here
  • Economics is not a science, not a religion, but proto-scientific rubbish   here
  • The end of political economics   here
  • Morons on math   here
  • How Heterodoxy got lost in the methodological woods   here
  • Note on Lars Syll on ‘Cauchy logic’ in economics   here
  • Let Chicago economics rest in peace   here
  • Needed: the Top 10 of substandard economics blogs   here
  • The equilibrium of idiocy   here
  • The tragicomedy of Heterodoxy   here
  • Austerity and the total disconnect between economic policy and science   here
  • Does Asad Zaman fly with POL or SCI Airlines?   here
  • Failed critique of failed economics   here
  • The stupidity of Heterodoxy is the life insurance of Orthodoxy   here
  • Ricardian vice and Keynesian confusedness   here
  • How Heterodoxy became the venue for science’s scum   here
  • Economics — from storytelling to science   here
  • The economist as moralist   here
  • Methodology for heterodox one-cell-brainers   here
  • Austerity and the idiocy of political economists   here
  • The non-existence of economics   here
  • Heterodoxy’s chronic thinking incapacity   here
  • NAIRU and the scientific incompetence of Orthodoxy and Heterodoxy   here
  • The methodological blunders of fake scientists   here
  • Economics is a science? You must be joking!   here
  • Traditional Heterodoxy’s paradigmatic impotence   here
  • Ideology? Incompetence? Fake? Or all this together?   here
  • Economics: Poor philosophy, poor psychology, poor science   here
  • Failed economics: The losers’ long list of lame excuses   here
  • Complexity and stupidity   here
  • A heterodox pushback or just another shot in the foot?   here
  • The economic machine is broken? Don’t call the heterodox repairman!   here
  • The distribution theory is false because the profit theory is false   here
  • The one stone that kills orthodox and heterodox employment theory   here
  • Economics ― a Zombie wrestling show   here
  • Heterodoxy and the re-invention of science   here
  • The economist as stand-up comedian   here
  • Economists: Jacks of all trades ― except economics   here
  • Heterodoxy’s popular but silly math denial   here
  • A new curriculum for swampies?   here
  • Political economics: a deadhead sitcom   here
  • It is better to be precisely right than roughly wrong   here
  • Heterodox economics and the problem of inferior and superior critique   here
  • Orthodoxy vs. Heterodoxy: the squabbling of quacks   here
  • Economics: a science without scientists   here
  • Go, Heterodoxy, move on!   here
  • Economics: The pathetic story of two failures   here
  • Keynesianism is broken: Get over it!   here
  • Economic policy advice has never had sound scientific foundations   here
  • The final smackdown of blahblah-Keynesianism   here
  • There is no such thing as THE market   here
  • The father of modern economics and his imbecile kids   here
  • How the mainstream vanished in the gutter   here
  • Not big news: political economics is a failure   here
  • Economists have no brain   here
  • Stuck with the economics prisoner’s dilemma   here
  • The Cambridge crap curriculum   here
  • Feeble thinkers, feeble rethinkers: the perennial misery of economics   here
  • Economics and scientific foolishness   here
  • When proto-scientific Heterodoxy calls Orthodoxy pseudo-scientific   here
  • Heterodoxy’s scientific self-deception   here
  • How Keynes got macro wrong and Allais got it right   here
  • All models are false because all economists are stupid   here
  • Economics is NOT a social science   here
  • Heterodoxy’s scientific self-burial   here
  • Post Keynesianism, science, and universal idiocy   here
  • Economics: The chief demerit is inconsistency   here
  • Economic policy guidance out of the scientific kindergarten   here
  • Economics: The Battle of Frogs and Mice is over   here
  • Economics: A cargo cult science from the very beginning   here
  • Forget Chicago, and also Cambridge   here
  • The scientific self-elimination of Heterodoxy   here
  • The consistent ancients and the confused moderns   here
  • How to get out of the Econ 101 PsySoc woods   here
  • Heterodoxy, you have a problem   here 
  • Heterodox schizo   here
  • Heterodoxy: From bad to better or from bad to worse?   here
  • Where advanced Heterodoxy — represented by Steve Keen — took the wrong turn   here
  • Storytelling vs Theory = Politics vs Science   here
  • Heterodoxy, too, is no longer what it once was   here
  • How to get out of the swamp of ignorance   here
  • Economics and the social science delusion   here
  • Lawson’s fundamental methodological error and the failure of Heterodoxy   here
  • What heterodox economists are embarrassed to admit   here
  • Heterodoxy and the nullity of dead horse beating   here
  • The economist’s hajj from Mordor to Mecca   here
  • How Heterodoxy keeps the Naked-Emperor-Zombie alive   here
  • How to restart economics   here
  • Economists and methodology: the horror of all horrors   here
  • Every thinking economist is heterodox by default, but how do we proceed from here?   here
  • Economists’ proto-scientific methodology   here
  • Why the Naked-Emperor-Zombie cannot die   here
  • Axiomatics — the heterodox bugbear   here
  • Lousy scientists   here
  • Confused Orthodoxy vs. confused Heterodoxy   here
  • Are economists natural-born scientific failures?   here
  • Economics: of the stupid by the stupid for the stupid   here
  • Economics as fool’s paradise   here
  • Still on the wrong track   here
  • The existence of economic laws and the nonexistence of behavioral laws   here
  • Economics is NOT a science of behavior   here
  • Towards the true economic theory   here
  • How economists became the scientific laughing stock   here
  • The ur-blunder of economics and its rectification   here
  • The tragedy of Heterodoxy   here
  • Heterodoxy as superior alternative   here
  • Heterodoxy: important decisions ahead   here
  • Heterodoxy at the crossroads  here
  • Heterodoxy, too, is still in the wood  here
  • Heterodoxy, too, is proto-scientific garbage   here
  • The real limit of Heterodoxy  here
  • The unfinished Keynes (I)  here
  • Let Post-Keynesianism rest in peace  here
  • What the Top 20 heterodox economists say  here
  • A simple question  here
  • From behavior to structure  here
  • Yes, orthodox economics is poor science, but can Heterodoxy raise hope?  here
  • Kalecki, the man who missed it by a hair's breadth  here
  • Kalecki got it wrong, Allais got it right  here
  • Economic theory ― as false as ever  here
  • Lacking the Midas touch of science  here
  • Still in the woods   here
  • Time to get out of gossip economics  here
Working papers
  • Essentials of Constructive Heterodoxy: Profit   here
  • What is Wrong with Heterodox Economics? Kalecki’s Profit Theory as an Example   here
Note: The profit theory of Keynes, Kalecki, Marx, or Keen is demonstrably false. See also this compilation and the summary 'An inquiry into the nature and causes of profit' on the AXEC web page.

For the difference between Orthodoxy, Traditional Heterodoxy, and Constructive Heterodoxy, see  Graphic AXEC83.


Orthodoxy and traditional Heterodoxy are axiomatically false, that is, materially and formally inconsistent.

Terminological clarification, Mar 5, 2025: A rough distinction between various economic approaches has been Orthodoxy vs. Heterodoxy, with Orthodoxy being congruent with the current Mainstream. According to this traditional distinction, the AXEC approach is heterodox. However, AXEC does not have much in common with traditional Heterodoxy beyond being antagonistic to Orthodoxy. So, a new distinction has to be introduced, i.e., between Traditional Heterodoxy and Constructive Heterodoxy. Constructive Heterodoxy is not only critical of Orthodoxy but replaces it completely. This is done by a Paradigm Shift that makes both Orthodoxy and traditional Heterodoxy obsolete. For the sake of clarity, the AXEC Paradigm is henceforth not labeled as Constructive Heterodoxy but as Metadoxy.

For the difference between Orthodoxy, Traditional Heterodoxy, and Constructive Heterodoxy, see the new Graphic AXEC83a