AXEC: New Foundations of Economics: Neoclassics and MMT ― much like pest and cholera

June 4, 2018

Neoclassics and MMT ― much like pest and cholera

Comment on Lars Syll on ‘From Wicksell to Le Bourva and MMT’

Blog-Reference and Blog-References and Blog-Reference on Jun 5

Compared to neoclassical economics, MMT looks like an improvement. But this is a rather small feat because compared to the proto-scientific garbage of mainstream economics almost everything is an improvement.

However, after 150+ years of repetition, the critique of neoclassical economics has turned out to be pointless: “… it takes a new theory, and not just the destructive exposure of assumptions or the collection of new facts, to beat an old theory.” (Blaug)

Does MMT beat the old theory? No! MMT is macrofounded, this is the improvement compared to microfounded Neoclassics, but the macrofoundations are inconsistent.#2 Methodology tells us that if the foundations are false the whole analytical superstructure is false.

MMT’s strong points are advertised as follows: “… a strong focus on balance sheets as opposed to theoretical models based on assumptions that are necessary for the mathematics to work. There is also a strong consensus that monetary theory is positive, not normative. Further relevant areas of agreement are found with respect to the idea of Chartalism when it comes to the origin and value of money; the endogeneity of money regarding bank creation of deposits; the role of the money market in the economy and the missing link to inflation; the monetary circuit and the link from debt to income; and the effects of deficit spending.” (Ehnts, Barberoux) and “… MMT [is] also updated macroeconomics based on not only the existing monetary systems but also by bringing together previous contributions, notably Wynne Godley’s stock-flow consistent modeling, Abba Lerner’s functional finance, and Hyman Minsky’s financial instability theory and job guarantee proposal.” (Hickey)

The problem is that all these elements do not fit consistently together because the underlying macroeconomic balance sheet mathematics, i.e. the sectoral balances equation, is provably false.#3, #4 From the scientific standpoint, MMT is as inconsistent and worthless as neoclassical economics. The policy guidance of both schools has NO sound scientific foundations.

The two main blunders of MMT are value and distribution theory

“In modern times legal currencies are totally based on fiat. Currencies no longer have intrinsic value (as gold and silver). What gives them value is basically the simple fact that you have to pay your taxes with them.” (Syll) This is simply false, the value of money is independent of taxation.#5
Because Public Deficit = Private Profit the money creation/deficit spending in all economic situations as proposed by MMTers has detrimental consequences for distribution. MMT policy proposals amount ultimately to agenda pushing for the one-percenters.#6

The difference between Neoclassics and MMT is on closer inspection analogous to the difference between pest and cholera. There is no difference in the scientific incompetence between orthodox and heterodox economists.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke

#1 Stop beating mainstream economics ― it is long dead
#2 For the full-spectrum refutation of MMT see cross-references MMT
#3 Keynesians ― terminally stupid or worse?
#4 Rectification of MMT macro accounting
#5 The objective value of money
#6 Austerity and the political games Progressives play

Related 'Poor Wicksell — abused as a testimonial for MMT' and 'Macro imbeciles'.

Immediately following The Third Way: Towards the happy zero-tax economy.

***

REPLY to Ralph Musgrave on Jun 5

You say: “E.K-H keeps claiming that a public sector deficit benefits the 1% not the 99%. Complete nonsense: if a deficit is targeted on the 99%, then the deficit would benefit the 99%, amazing as that might seem.”

As Marx told already all Flat-earthers and Flat-thinkers: “But all science would be superfluous, if the appearance, the form, and the nature of things were wholly identical.”

The point of science is to figure out what is appearances and what is reality.

So let us assume the government creates money and distributes it to the households according to a social criterion. Let the total amount be A, the number of beneficiary households be n, and the amount per household a, then A=na.

In this case two, things happen:
(i) If all beneficiary households spend this money, the price goes up a little (NO inflation) and the household sector as a whole gets the SAME total real output under the conditions of market clearing.
(ii) The profit of the business sector increases because of Qm1=C1−Yw in comparison to Qm0=C0−Yw=0 with C1 greater C0. The difference between C1 and C0 is the amount A, i.e. the deficit-spending/money-creation of the government sector.

The real situation of the household sector remains unchanged because the price hike counteracts the nominal demand increase. The situation of the business sector as a whole improves, i.e. monetary profit Qm rises from Qm0=0 to Qm1=A. In other words, Public Deficit = Private Profit.

So, the social measure of the government only redistributes the output O between the ninety-nine-percenters. The real situation of the household sector as a whole does NOT change at all. The whole act is called stealth taxation#1 because the price hike reduces the real quantity the wage income receivers can buy with their wage income Yw.

So, yes, E.K-H keeps claiming (i) that a public sector deficit benefits the 1% not the 99%, (ii) MMT is a political fraud, and (iii) Ralph Musgrave is a clueless blatherer who does not know how the monetary economy works.

#1 MMT, money creation, stealth taxation, and redistribution

***

REPLY to Calgacus on Jun 6

You cite from my answer to Ralph Musgrave: “If all beneficiary households spend this money, the price goes up a little (NO inflation) and the household sector as a whole gets the SAME total real output under the conditions of market clearing.” and then go on to claim: “That isn’t always true; the deeper a depression is ― and that will make such a distribution more likely ― the less true it is.”

Note that there are TWO issues here: (i) real and nominal distribution and (ii) employment. My answer to Ralph Musgrave addressed explicitly the issue of distribution under the condition of given employment.

This, of course, does not mean that it escaped my attention that there is also a relationship between money-creation/deficit-spending and employment. In fact, I addressed it on multiple occasions.#1, #2

The point is that you are too stupid/lazy to look up with the omnipresent Search Function what I have written about employment/NAIRU/wage-led growth and the whole Neoclassical/Keynesian/MMT garbage that fills the textbooks and blogs.#3

The axiomatically correct employment theory says (i) yes, of course, it is possible to increase employment through money-creation/deficit spending, (ii) it is better economic policy to apply the price-mechanism for this purpose#1 because (iii) deficit-spending causes unintentionally/intentionally the distributional effects that are before everybody’s eyes#4 and produce a lot of hypocritical surprises and communicative hyperventilation.

All these relationships between deficit-spending, employment, distribution are well-understood albeit NOT by MMT academics who are either scientifically incompetent or politically corrupt or both.

#1 Full employment through the price mechanism
#2 Full employment, the Phillips Curve, and the end of Gaganomics
#3 For details of the big picture see cross-references Employment
#4 Keynes, Lerner, MMT, Trump and exploding profit

Knowledge only — no opinion

Science does not explain everything, but non-science explains nothing.

Neither orthodox nor heterodox economics satisfies the scientific criteria of material and formal consistency.

Economists cannot explain how the economy works. The Profit Theory is false since Adam Smith. There is much opinion and little knowledge.

Opinion is the realm of political economics, knowledge is the realm of theoretical economics.

Political economics is scientifically worthless.

Theoretical economics is built upon clearly stated premises, i.e., upon a set of axioms.

Orthodoxy got the axiomatic foundations wrong and Heterodoxy has none at all.

Economics is a failed science. Economists are incompetent scientists.

Profit

Neither Classicals, nor Walrasians, nor Marshallians, nor Marxians, nor Keynesians, nor Institutionialists, nor Monetary Economists, nor MMTers, nor Austrians, nor Sraffaians, nor Evolutionists, nor Game theorists, nor EconoPhysicists, nor RBCers, nor New Keynesians, nor New Classicals ever came to grips with profit. Hence, they all fail to capture the essence of the market economy.

Because of this, economists have nothing to offer in the way of a scientifically founded economic policy guidance.

The hybrid science

As a first approximation, one can agree on the general characteristic that the economy is a complex system.

However, with the term system one usually associates a structure with components that are non-human. In order to stress the obvious fact that humans are an essential component of the economic system the market economy should be characterized more precisely as a complex hybrid human/system entity.

The scientific method is straightforwardly applicable to the sys-component but not to the hum-component. While it is clear that the economy always has to be treated as an indivisible whole, for good methodological reasons the analysis has to start with the objective system-component.

In gestalt-psychological terms the economic system is the foreground, individual behavior the background. Common sense wrongly insists that the hum-component must always be in the foreground. This fallacy compares to geo-centrism. The economic system has its own logic which is different from the behavioral logic of humans. The systemic logic is what Adam Smith called the Invisible Hand.

There are systemic laws but no behavioral laws. Systemic laws have the same methodological status as physical laws.

Neither Orthodoxy nor Heterodoxy can tell what the systemic laws of the actual monetary economy are.

Whether the outcome of the human/system-interaction is good or bad is a politcal question that lies outside of theoretical economics. Theoretical economics explains how the actual economy works - no less, no more.

Narrative vs.Theory

Psychological, sociological or behavioral assumptionism cannot yield anything other than a gossip model of the world. Second-guessing the agents is not economic analysis.

Science deals exclusively with propositions that can in principle be decided by objective means. The rest is opinion, faith, phantasy, motive speculation, allegation, hallucination, myth, paranoia, ink-blot association, psychology, philosophy, in one word: storytelling.

Storytelling is the original mode of communication in the social realm — except science.

Political economics is storytelling and, by default, the natural habitat of confused confusers. Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism are social narratives and not scientifically valid representations of reality.

"The truth is, most persons, not excepting professional economists, are satisfied with very hazy notions." (Fisher)

In marked contrast, theoretical economics lives up to the standards of material and formal consistency. A scientific theory is the best mental representation of reality that is humanly possible.

Theory starts with a set of objective and consistent axioms.

Paradigm Shift

"The problem is not just to say that something might be wrong, but to replace it by something — and that is not so easy." (Feynman)

"As will become evident, there is more agreement on the defects of orthodox theory than there is on what theory is to replace it: but all agreed that the point of the criticism is to clear the ground for construction." (Nell)

"The moral of the story is simply this: it takes a new theory, and not just the destructive exposure of assumptions or the collection of new facts, to beat an old theory." (Blaug)

"Is it not a fact, which stares at us from the histories of all sciences, that it is much more difficult for the human mind to forge the most elementary conceptual schemes than it is to elaborate the most complicated superstructure when those elements are well in hand?" (Schumpeter)

"The task of producing knowledge against the grain requires imagination." (Mirowski)

"A new idea is extremely difficult to think of. It takes a fantastic imagination." (Feynman)

"The scientific imagination dreams of explanations and laws." (Peirce)

"It is brilliance of imagination which makes the glory of science." (Evans)

"... we know little more now about ‘how the economy works,’ ... than we knew in 1790, after Adam Smith completed the last revision of The Wealth of Nations." (Clower)

Selftest and to watch for

You apply one of these items

• supply-demand-equilibrium,

• general equilibrium,

• marginal utility,

• well-behaved production functions,

• total income = value of output,

• total income = wages + profits,

• I=S,

• wage rate down - employment up,

• behavioral axioms?

Then you are out of science because of unnoticed material or formal inconsistency.

Every economist who uses the concept of equilibrium is scientifically incompetent because she/he failed to notice that equilibrium is an economic nonentity.

Practically this means: as soon as the word equilibrium appears in an economic text it can be thrown into the waste basket. The same holds for all other nonentities.

The vast majority of economists deals mainly with nonentities. This is why Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism is scientifically worthless.

Since Adam Smith, economic policy guidance has no sound scientific foundations.

To be replaced (1)

The core premises of Orthodoxy are uncertain and false and this fully explains the failure of the research program.

“As with any Lakatosian research program, the neo-Walrasian program is characterized by its hard core, heuristics, and protective belts. Without asserting that the following characterization is definitive, I have argued that the program is organized around the following propositions: HC1 economic agents have preferences over outcomes; HC2 agents individually optimize subject to constraints; HC3 agent choice is manifest in interrelated markets; HC4 agents have full relevant knowledge; HC5 observable outcomes are coordinated, and must be discussed with reference to equilibrium states.” (Weintraub)

The inescapable Paradigm Shift consists of the move from this obsolete hard core to the superior set of structural axioms.

To be replaced (2)

The fundamental equations of macroeconomics have been formulated by Keynes in two lines.

"Income = value of output = consumption + investment. Saving = income - consumption. Therefore saving = investment."

This elementary syllogism is demonstrably false. The demonstration consists in the proof that Keynes could not solve the Profit Puzzle. Neither did Post-Neo-New-Keynesians.

In the most general terms, the economics Paradigm Shift consists in switching from the behavior-centric bottom-up approach to the structure-centric top-down approach. This is comparable to the Copernican turn from geo-centrism to helio-centrism.

Consensus

Economics is a science without scientists. Because they are ignorant of the elementary difference between profit and income, the present generation of economists has not made and cannot make a significant contribution to the discussion about how the actual economy works.

Every orthodox or heterodox economist can convince himself/herself that their profit theory is defective.

Every non-economist can — by applying elementary logic — convince himself that conventional profit theories are false. See 'How the intelligent non-economist can refute every economist hands down'.

Because the profit theory is false the whole of conventional economic theory has to be rejected.

"What is now taught as standard economic theory will eventually disappear, no trace of it will remain in the universities or boardrooms because it simply doesn’t work: were it engineering, the bridge would collapse." (McCauley)

No scientist will ever accept Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, or Austrianism. These approaches are logically and/or empirically refuted. This is the actual methodological state-of-art. Walrasians, Keynesians, Marxians, or Austrians are still at the proto-scientific stage. These approaches cannot be improved, only abandoned.

Economists are a public nuisance because they have an opinion on everything but knowledge of nothing.

About me

“Bottom line is that your profit law is just a definition you made up nobody else agrees with, nobody. You are all alone with your precious tautology.” Barkley Rosser

“In any event, your entire theory is based on you doing macro accounting in wacky fashion that nobody agrees with.” Brian Romanchuk

"Your stuff is at least original: it's quite cool after a couple of decades at this to see a fresh Economics. But real promises are not advanced: they were around for millennia until the Greeks obscured them with Metaphysics." Chris Cook

"No mate, they're you-blockers. You have all the personality traits of a crank, and the rest of them have tired of you. You could be 100% right, and you'd still die as your only follower." Steve Keen

"What you are doing fills is all with joy, your constructive critique is most welcome!"

Achim Truger,

German Council of Economic Experts,

in a failed attempt to be ironic

"200+ years of thought and yet you are the only one who gets it—or even understands your argument. Thank god we have you, pseudonymous Twitter user. Otherwise no one would know."

William Luther

Assistant Professor of Economics

in a failed attempt to be funny

"Egmonts profit law is the perfect equation that demonstrates this in action. Put the equation into a spreadsheet and then add government spending and watch how it flows into profits. Enter in some debt (-Sm) and watch too how that flows into profits. It can't go anywhere else."

Dean

About the rest of economics

Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism, MMT, Pluralism are mutually contradictory, axiomatically false, materially/ formally inconsistent. Economics is a failed science.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” Leonardo da Vinci

In economics, the overwhelming majority belongs to Class III. This explains why economics is after 200+ years still at the proto-scientific level.

The obvious task for every economist is to advance from cargo cult science and political agenda-pushing to science. This is absolutely beyond the means of Class III people.

For 200+ years now, economists are not scientists but agenda pushers, useful idiots, clowns in the political Circus Maximus.

Nopopop

This blog does not add to any popular/un- popular opinion.

This blog does not hand out advice about how to avoid taxes, to get rich on the stock market, to be successful in business, to increase the wealth of nations, to run an economy, to maximize welfare, to prevent national/global bankruptcy, to improve the institutional setup of society, to get out of national/global depression, nor about how to save humankind or any subgroup thereof.

This blog is about the true theory of the actual monetary economy.

"In order to tell the politicians and practitioners something about causes and best means, the economist needs the true theory or else he has not much more to offer than educated common sense or his personal opinion." (Stigum)

Focus

Science is of primary interest and importance. Scientists are of secondary interest.

With regard to science, most people lose focus easily because of a natural preference for anecdotes and gossip over facts or subjectivity over objectivity.

Hence, Schumpeter once considered it necessary to remind his habitually disoriented fellow economists: “Remember: occasionally, it may be an interesting question to ask why a man says what he says; but whatever the answer, it does not tell us anything about whether what he says is true or false.”

Science is about true/false and nothing else.

Disclaimer

Missing Blog-Reference links: AXEC does not guarantee that their comments can at any time be recovered from where they have been posted intitially because the availability depends on the publication policy of the blog owner which is implicitly accepted on entering a debate. See also: 'Economists: Incompetent? Stupid? Corrupt?'

Texts: Parts of arbitrary length of any of the author's texts is and will be used again by the author in papers, books, websites, blogs, and other media without explicit reference. The right to make corrections or minor textual improvements on reutilization is reserved. Therefore, it is always a good idea to double-check for the latest version.

Caution: Do not expect a corroboration of your political view. Neither a refutation. Political economics has been scientifically worthless since Adam Smith. Politics has to be separated from economics because it is categorically different from science. The best science can do and has always done is to prove beyond reasonable doubt that you have been objectively wrong or ignorant until now. Science goes beyond the naive common sense of today and becomes the sophisticated common sense of tomorrow.

See also Terms of Use and Legal at www.AXEC.org

Outlook

To recall, while political economics is storytelling, theoretical economics adheres to scientific standards.

The first task of theoretical economics is to get the axiomatic foundations right. This is what J. S. Mill called the opus magnum. Neither Orthodoxy nor Heterodoxy came up with a reasonable solution to this day. This explains the secular stagnation of economics.

There is no serious alternative to structural axiomatic economics. This is not a matter of opinion but of proof. The sole criteria are material and formal consistency.

All of economics has to be reconstructed from the ground up.

Major economic policy implication

The price mechanism does not work as standard economics hypothesizes. The axiom-based Employment Law states that overall employment increases if the average wage rate increases relative to average price and productivity. This gives one the lever to improve the employment situation all over the world and to fend off deflation without rising debt and without artificial capacity growth. To increase the average price relative to the average wage rate and productivity increases unemployment.

Right policy depends on true theory.

“In order to tell the politicians and practitioners something about causes and best means, the economist needs the true theory or else he has not much more to offer than educated common sense or his personal opinion.” (Stigum)

Lacking the true theory, economists promote for more than 200 years opinion instead of knowledge.