September 2, 2020

Occasional Tweets: Confusing flows and balances

Links on Inflation

Twitter-Reference ModernMoneyScot and Blog-Reference

The fact is that the Theory of Money ― including MMT ― is proto-scientific garbage. More details:

► The macroeconomic Law of Supply and Demand for the closed economy with market-clearing is shown with Graphic AXEC64



Egmont Kakarot-Handtke

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August 31, 2020

The new economic Paradigm requires a new textbook

Comment on Bill Mitchell on ‘US Federal Reserve statement signals a new phase in the paradigm shift in macroeconomics’


Bill Mitchell summarizes current events “Regular readers will know that for the last few years I have been documenting the way that the dominant paradigm in macroeconomics (New Keynesianism) is slowly disintegrating as the dissonance between its empirical predictions and reality becomes too great to ignore and justify. … Last week, the US Federal Reserve Bank Chairman, Jerome Powell made a path breaking speech ― New Economic Challenges and the Fed’s Monetary Policy Review ― at the annual economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City at Jackson Hole. On the same day, the Federal Reserve Bank released a statement ― Federal Open Market Committee announces approval of updates to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy. We have now entered a new phase of the paradigm shift in macroeconomics.”

Bill Mitchell feels validated “This has progressively opened the door for Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), the emerging rival paradigm.” Mainstream economics has failed “But we are making progress.”

“And, if you scanned the textbook market in macroeconomics looking for guidance to all of this, then you would find only ONE offering that allows you to understand all of this ― yes ― Macroeconomics (William Mitchell, L. Randall Wray, and Martin Watts). Small sales pitch ― but that is the fact.”

Yes, a Paradigm Shift is going on, but it is not headed toward MMT. Yes, mainstream textbooks are obsolete #1, #2, #3 but this does not mean that the new MMT textbook is scientifically acceptable. The fact of the matter is that the foundational MMT sectoral balances equation is provably false.#4 Because of this, the analytical superstructure of MMT is false and as a consequence, the new MMT macroeconomics textbook is scientifically worthless.

The Paradigm Shift moves from false Walrasian microfoundations and false Keynesian macrofoundations to true macrofoundations.#5

The good news for teachers and students is that the axiomatically correct textbook Sovereign Economics is now available.#6

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#6 Sovereign Economics Amazon.de, BoD, etc.

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REPLY to Tom Hickey on Sep 2

Bill Mitchell commented on the FED’s announcement of a new monetary strategy: “We have now entered a new phase of the paradigm shift in macroeconomics.” And “Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole was described by a Reuters report (August 28, 2020) ― With new monetary policy approach, Fed lays Phillips curve to rest ― in this way: ‘One of the fundamental theories of modern economics may have finally been put to rest.’

This may be politically true but is scientifically false because the Phillips curve had been put to rest already in 2012.#1

The folks at the FED are a bit slow, worse, they still do not get the point.

The axiomatically correct macroeconomic Employment Law states that in order to increase employment, wages must go UP, and/or prices must go DOWN. To push inflation is pure idiocy. 

Yes, for the micro-brains of economists this appears counter-intuitive. But then, microeconomics is long dead. The Paradigm Shift from false Walrasian microfoundations and false Keynesian macrofoundations to true macrofoundations is an accomplished fact.#2


#1 Keynes’ Employment Function and the Gratuitous Phillips Curve Disaster, see Links on the Phillips Curve

August 30, 2020

MMT: fraudsters united

Comment on Richard Murphy on ‘Steve Keen’s lightbulb moment on modern monetary theory’*


Richard Murphy, Steve Keen, and Stephanie Kelton have been refuted individually some time ago. #1, #2, #3

According to Richard Murphy, the big MMT lightbulb consists of “the deficit creates money”. This is not quite correct because the public deficit creates counterfeit currency. #4 And because of the Profit LawPublic Deficit = Private Profit, this mode of money creation is NOT neutral with regard to distribution but a massive free lunch for the Oligarchy.

Needless to emphasize that distribution is not an issue for the MMT sales team that poses as progressive friends of WeThePeople.

These are the facts
• MMT policy is NOT in the interest of the WeThePeople.
• MMT policy amounts to an abuse of the fiat money system.
• The profit effect of MMT money-creation/deficit-spending strengthens the Oligarchy.
• Politically, MMT is a fraud, and scientifically, it is garbage. #5

Axiomatic macroeconomics tells one that late capitalism can only survive with ever-increasing public deficit-spending. COVID has made this clear to even the dullest person as deficit-spending explodes around the world. This is why Steve Keen jumped on the MMT bandwagon. His Minsky model now confirms Stephanie Kelton’s new sales brochure. What a happy coincidence!

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#5 For the full-spectrum refutation of MMT, see cross-references MMT

August 27, 2020

The trouble with truth

Comment on Philip Giraldi on ‘Rashomon American Style–Truth is somewhere in between’ 

Blog-Reference

Philip Giraldi’s summary misses the point by suggesting that truth is an entirely subjective affair: “The story reveals how all of the contradictory testimony was fundamentally dishonest, in that each participant was interpreting events to support his or her self-interest in the outcome of the tragedy.”

This conclusion is true for the political sphere. In the Rashomon story, though, the 5th person is missing: the detective/scientist. It seems that the paradox of multiple truths has been solved already by the ancient Greeks: “There are always many different opinions and conventions concerning any one problem or subject-matter … This shows that they are not all true. For if they conflict, then at best only one of them can be true. Thus it appears that Parmenides ... was the first to distinguish clearly between truth or reality on the one hand, and convention or conventional opinion (hearsay, plausible myth) on the other ...” (Popper)

The idea of truth has no meaning in the political context. It has no meaning in economics either, because economics is not a science. Science is binary i.e. true/false and NOTHING in between. There is NO such thing in science as roughly right or roughly wrong, it is only materially/formally true/false. The swamp between true/false where “nothing is clear and everything is possible” (Keynes) is the natural habitat of morons, agenda pushers, confused confusers, blatherers, fraudsters, trolls, incompetent scientists, in one word, political economists. #1, #2

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


Price theory — more than beating the dead horse again and again

Comment on Blair Fix on ‘Supply and demand deconstructed’

Blog-Reference and Blog-Reference

Blair Fix summarizes “… Jonathan Nitzan demolishes the neoclassical theory of prices. It’s a master lesson in how to deconstruct a theory.”

Mainstream economics, though, does not need another deconstruction. #1, #2, #3 Mainstreamers have admitted failure long ago. “There is another alternative: to formulate a completely new research program and conceptual approach. As we have seen, this is often spoken of, but there is still no indication of what it might mean.” (Ingrao et al., 1990)

Clearly, everybody knows by now for sure that supply-demand-equilibrium is proto-scientific garbage. Back in 1954, Schumpeter found it still necessary to diffuse doubts about the scientific status of the supply-demand-equilibrium approach “The primitive apparatus of the theory of supply and demand is scientific. But the scientific achievement is so modest, and common sense and scientific knowledge are logically such close neighbors in this case, that any assertion about the precise point at which the one turned into the other must of necessity remain arbitrary.”

So, the right thing to do is to bury and forget the “Totem of the Micro”: “If neoclassical theory is bunk, then what explains prices? Jonathan Nitzan, together with Shimshon Bichler, argues that prices are inseparable from power.” #4

With this, though, everything remains in the old economics-is-a-social-science paradigm. The behavioral assumption of price-taking is replaced by the assumption of price-setting. To remain in the psycho-sociological sphere is the lethal blunder of the power approach because economics is a systems science. #5

Here are the basics of the macrofoundations approach. The elementary production-consumption economy is defined with this set of macroeconomic axioms: (A0) The economy consists of the household and the business sector, which, in turn, consists initially of one giant fully integrated firm. (A1) Yw=WL wage income Yw is equal to wage rate W times working hours. L, (A2) O=RL output O is equal to productivity R times working hours L, (A3) C=PX consumption expenditure C is equal to price P times quantity bought/sold X.

Under the conditions of market-clearing X=O and budget-balancing C=Yw in each period, the price as the dependent variable is given by P=W/R (1a). The price is determined by the wage rate W, which takes the role of the nominal numéraire, and the productivity R. This is the most elementary case; i.e., when the economy gets more complex, the price equation becomes longer.*

The macroeconomic Law of Supply and Demand (1a) implies W/P=R (1b), i.e., the real wage is always equal to the productivity, no matter how the wage rate W is set or how long the individual or aggregate working time L is. Full employment is possible; the workers always get the whole product O. The workers' living standard depends ultimately on productivity.

The logical next steps are (i) to skip the conditions of market-clearing and budget-balancing and to allow for price-setting, (ii) to differentiate the business sector into multiple firms and markets, and to determine the price structure. #6

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#1 There is NO such thing as supply-demand-equilibrium
#2 How to Get Rid of Supply-Demand-Equilibrium
#3 The Law of Supply and Demand: Here It Is Finally
#4 This echoes Macht und ökonomisches Gesetz (Power and Economic Law), Schriften des Vereins für Socialpolitik, 1972.
#5 Your economics is refuted on all counts: here is the real thing
#6 See Ch. 3 Market interdependence in Sovereign Economics

Related 'Economists never understood how the price mechanism works' and '10 steps to leave cargo cult economics behind for good' and 'Primary and Secondary Markets' and 'Hayek and other informationally retarded proto-economists' and 'How to overcome the manifest silliness of Econ 101 and save the economy' and 'Why you should NEVER use supply-demand-equilibrium' and 'Traditional Heterodoxy’s paradigmatic impotence' and 'Essentials of Constructive Heterodoxy: The Market' and 'Understanding Profit and the Markets: The Canonical Model' and 'Major Defects of the Market Economy' and 'How to finally hammer down the nails in the coffin of Monty Python economics' and 'Get it econ suckers: behavioral microfoundations  false, systemic macrofoundations  true' and 'Econ 101: Economists flunk the intelligence test at the first hurdle' and 'The monstrous utility-supply-demand-equilibrium failure' and 'To this day, economists have produced NOT ONE textbook that satisfies scientific standards' and 'Ch. 9, Price mechanism vs quantity mechanism in Sovereign Economics, BoD'.

“Totem of the Micro” has been coined by Axel Leijonhufvud.

* E.g. AXEC64


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#PointOfProof
Aug 29

August 26, 2020

Occasional Tweets: Where does profit come from?