September 16, 2020

Psychologism: how morons explain the world

Comment on Brian Romanchuk/Tom Hickey on ‘Canadian Establishment: "Deficit Myths? Yes, Please!"’


Brian Romanchuk explains: “The Canadian economic establishment is very much wedded to sound finance beliefs, courtesy of the Great Canadian Fiscal Crisis of the early 1990s.”

This sounds like an explanation, but is pure blather. First, who is the “Canadian economic establishment” and, second, how can we know to which beliefs this fictitious subject is wedded, and third, is there any way to prove that Brian Romanchuk's statement is true?

This psychological motive-imputation is as far away from science as can be. It is, however, the stuff political propaganda is made of. Read three Trump tweets, and you get the pattern.

Things are bad enough with fresh political events, but they get exponentially worse with historical events.

As usual, Tom Hickey cannot resist jumping headfirst into the poop: “As an aside, Germany still can't get over the Weimar hyperinflation and ignores the turnaround engineered by Reichsbank president Hjalmar Schacht that contributed to the economic success of the Hitler regime through ‘creative finance’.”

Folk psychologist Tom Hickey has “Germany” on his couch and diagnoses a trauma: hyperinflation.  And now it comes, “since the end of WWII, Germany has been firmly committed to ‘sound finance’.” That is hysteresis of the worst sort.

OK, Doctor, got it. Everybody who talks of sound finance is psychologically deranged. In particular, those people who accuse MMT of unsound economic policy. Your psycho-babble proves nothing, but it is good enough for social media trolling.

The first point to realize is: the attempt to explain things historically is bound to fail because, in most cases, we have NO such thing as a historical fact. Everybody could know this since 1440 when Lorenzo Valla “proved that the Donation of Constantine was a forgery.”#1 This can be extrapolated backward to the folks who fabricated the bible and forward to those who wrote the Warren Report, which “concluded that President Kennedy was assassinated by Lee Harvey Oswald and that Oswald acted entirely alone.” (Wikipedia)

Most people are aware that most of what is called history is silly propaganda. For this reason, it is a bad idea to use historical events or mere opinions about those events in an economic argument. History and psychology prove NOTHING. Scientific proof consists of the demonstration of material/formal consistency.

Psychoanalyzing the collective psyche of “Germany” and inflation is a futile exercise. What we know is (i) that hyperinflation does not happen by accident but has to be engineered, (ii) that it ruined the German economy, with the middle class as the primary victim. Given the historical context, the combination of Weimar/Inflation is a signifier of an unprecedented political/economical catastrophe and not for some irrational phobia. Inflation has to be understood less as a mental illness and more as a weapon of economic warfare/subversion.

Having enjoyed a thorough economic education, Germany” is well-prepared to smell an economic rat. MMTers understandably do not like this and call “Germany” a paranoid Swabian housewife.

All this has nothing to do with economics understood as science. It is just a political shit show. Scientifically, MMT is worthless and politically it is a fraud. Brian Romanchuk is part of it.#2

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#1 Wikipedia Lorenzo Valla
#2 For more about Brian Romanchuk, see AXECquery.


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REPLY to Global Markets Training on Sep 17

You say: “When a bank makes a loan they DEBIT the asset named LOANS and they CREDIT the liability named DEPOSITS. Look up any definition of money as M1 or M2 and you will see that loans create deposits hence create M1 or M2 hence create money.”

For all practical purposes and in normal times, central bank deposits and bank deposits are functionally identical. However, in the strict sense, bank deposits are near-money, only central bank deposits/notes are money. #1 This explains the phenomenon of bank runs, i.e., when many people suddenly try to get central bank money/notes for their bank deposits.

You say: “And I audited banks for Ernst & Young. So I think I know something about the debits and credits of which I speak.”

Agreed. But despite the fact that the underlying math is the same, business accounting and macroeconomic accounting are different things. Obviously, you have not yet realized that MMT gets the macroeconomic sectoral balances equation wrong.#2 This foundational blunder makes that MMT as a whole is scientifically worthless.#3


#2 “And, although a classically trained economist I now fully accept the complete MMT lens.”

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REPLY to Tom Hickey on Sep 20

I argued above, “For this reason, it is a bad idea to use historical events or mere opinions about those events in an economic argument. They prove NOTHING.”

For those economists who do not understand how the economy works and habitually try to explain actual problems with a reference to alledged historical precedents some devastating news about history in general just comes in: Almost all you know about history is probably wrong: How Long Was the First Millenium? #1



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Twitter May 17, 2021 History got lost around 1900; what remained is propaganda


September 15, 2020

Occasional Tweets: #EconTwitter and #EconBlocker

 



For more on #EconBlocker see AXECquery

September 13, 2020

Let's bury economics now

Comment on Lars Syll on ‘Michael Woodford on models’


Lars Syll argues against Michael Woodford: “This is — sad to say — a rather typical view among mainstream economists today. Defending the use of unrealistic and unsubstantiated models with the argument that models make it ‘easy for others to see what assumptions have been relied upon, and hence to challenge them’ is rather far-fetched.”

Yes, “unrealistic and unsubstantiated models” are indefensible. Yes, mainstream economics is proto-scientific garbage. Yes, mainstreamer are in the “story-telling business”.#1

Yes, yes, yes. All this is known for 150+ years. Yes, economics is failed/fake science. Yes, economists are stupid or corrupt or both. Yes, this applies in equal measure to Orthodoxy and Heterodoxy. It applies to economics in general and to Lars Syll, in particular.#2

The most important thing to realize is that there are theoretical economics and political economics. Theoretical economics (= science) had been hijacked from the very beginning by political economists (= agenda pushers). Political economics has produced NOTHING of scientific value in the last 200+ years. Economic policy NEVER has had sound scientific foundations.

Both orthodox and heterodox economists are NOT scientists but clowns and useful idiots in the political Circus Maximus.#3, #4

The representative economist does not understand to this day what science is all about. So, here are eleven plain facts about ‘economic sciences’

1. Science manifests itself in the form of the true theory. 2. Truth is well-defined by material and formal consistency. 3. Logical consistency is secured by applying the axiomatic-deductive method and material consistency is secured by applying state-of-the-art testing. 4. The true theory/model is the humanly best mental representation of reality. 5. “When the premises are certain, true, and primary, and the conclusion formally follows from them, this is demonstration, and produces scientific knowledge of a thing.” (Aristotle, 300 BC)  6. The main approaches ― Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism, MMT ― are mutually contradictory, axiomatically false, materially/formally inconsistent and all got the foundational economic concept of profit wrong. 7. Because the foundations are false the analytical superstructure is false. 8. Economists are too stupid for elementary algebra. 9. Both orthodox and heterodox economics is failed/fake science. 10. Economic policy has no sound scientific foundations. 11. The EconNobel for ‘economic sciences’ is a fraud.

And this is the cause of the mess: economists have since the founding fathers consistently violated the separation of science and politics. In hashtags
#LawOfTheExcludedMiddle
#TheScientistIsNoActivist
#TheActivistIsNoScientist
#PoliticsCorruptsScience.

All this is known and needs no repetition. The consequence is: Economics and economists go directly to the Flat-Earth-Cemetery.

What next? Craig thinks he has a brilliant idea: “Paradigms, especially extremely relevant and urgently needed new paradigms are everything.” Yes, this is also known for a long time: “There is another alternative: to formulate a completely new research program and conceptual approach. As we have seen, this is often spoken of, but there is still no indication of what it might mean.” (Ingrao et al. 1990)

Except that the Paradigm Shift from provably false Walrasian microfoundations and provably false Keynesian macrofoundations to true macrofoundations is an accomplished fact.#5

And now, Lars Syll and all the other agenda-pushers/activists lead your own funeral cortege!

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#2 Lars Syll is refuted on all counts. See blog query for details
#5 Sovereign Economics BoD


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AXEC136g

Putin or Trump — who is owned by the Oligarchy?

Comment on TASS/Tom Hickey on ‘Russia will keep low level of public debt to ensure macroeconomic stability — experts’


Tom Hickey comments “I guess they haven't yet discovered MMT.”

First, for governments, there is not much to discover with MMT. Governments do deficit-spending/money-creation since time immemorial. And the Russian government is NO exception.

Does anybody believe that Mr. Putin does not know recent history? “Adam Smith, when he wrote his Wealth of Nations, and Burke, when he produced his famous speech on economic reform, understood by ‘political economy’ a ‘branch of the science of the statesman or legislator’, a theory of practice, the science of the prudent management of the public finances. The growth of the huge debts which weighed on the great military nations would end in proving their ruin. This was especially true of England, which had become immensely in debt through the conquest of her colonial Empire.” (Halévy)

Second, does anybody believe that Mr. Putin does not know that MMT policy is NOT for the benefit of the People but for the benefit of the Oligarchy?#1 To recall, the macroeconomic Profit Law implies Public Deficit = Private Profit. Does it make sense for Mr. Putin to feed the Russian Oligarchs with newly created money?

Because we cannot read Mr. Putin's mind we really don't know.

It is different from Mr. Trump. The first thing he did after his inauguration was to surround himself with Wall Street folks. So, it is not really a surprise that Mr. Trump blew deficit-spending/money-creation up to hitherto unknown proportions.#2

After four years, it is pretty obvious that for Mr. Trump and his oligarchic backers it holds: mission accomplished.#3

No surprise then, that MMT has become so popular in the U.S. recently#4 but not so much in Russia.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke





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Twitter Jan 23, 2021, The King of Debt


Occasional Tweets: Most economists are not scientists but political agenda pushers (I)

 

September 12, 2020

Bang — the representative economist and supply-demand-equilibrium are dead

Comment on Brian Albrecht on ‘You'll have to pry supply and demand from my cold, dead hands’*


Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism, MMT, and Pluralism are mutually contradictory, axiomatically false, materially/formally inconsistent, and all get profit ― the foundational concept of economics ― wrong. Because of the foundational blunder, the analytical superstructure of economics is false. Economics is failed/fake science. #1 This includes, of course, supply-demand-equilibrium, the one-graph-fits-all explanation of what happens in the economy.

Whether the ‘Totem of the Micro’, which consists of ill-founded marginalistic curves, has scientific value has often been questioned. #2-#10

• “The primitive apparatus of the theory of supply and demand is scientific. But the scientific achievement is so modest, and common sense and scientific knowledge are logically such close neighbors in this case, that any assertion about the precise point at which the one turned into the other must of necessity remain arbitrary.” (Schumpeter 1954)
• “You can make even a parrot into a learned political economist – all he must learn are the two words ‘supply’ and ‘demand’.” (Anonymous in Samuelson 1973)
• “You cannot teach a parrot to be an economist simply by teaching it to say ‘supply’ and ‘demand’.” (Anonymous in Samuelson 2010)

The genuine scientists among economists are well aware of the failure of the overarching general equilibrium theory and acknowledge the need for a Paradigm Shift: “There is another alternative: to formulate a completely new research program and conceptual approach. As we have seen, this is often spoken of, but there is still no indication of what it might mean.” (Ingrao et al. 1990)

This, though, is not how things play out in economics because the vast majority of economists are either stupid or corrupt or both. Economists either apply willful ignorance or come up with silly excuses. #11 Morgenstern criticized this back in 1941: “In economics we should strive to proceed, wherever we can, exactly according to the standards of the other, more advanced, sciences, where it is not possible, once an issue has been decided, to continue to write about it as if nothing had happened.”

Refuted theories are not discarded but stubbornly recycled in Econ 101. The disgrace of economics consists of teaching generation after generation approaches that are provably false at the level of elementary algebra. #12

Brian Albrecht has heard about the failure of economics in general and of supply-demand-equilibrium in particular, but that does not stop him: “I’m kicking this shindig off with a simple defense of (the increasingly scoffed at by the loudest voices online) supply and demand. It seems silly to need to defend supply and demand within economics circles. But it is 2020… tl;dr We can’t forget how much supply and demand explains about labor markets, especially when teaching students in their first economics course.”

Brian Albrecht does not know that, without valid scientific foundations, economic policy guidance is something between worthless and socially disastrous: “In order to tell the politicians and practitioners something about causes and best means, the economist needs the true theory or else he has not much more to offer than educated common sense or his personal opinion.” (Stigum 1991)

To this day, economists do NOT have the true theory. Supply-demand-equilibrium has never been more than educated common sense. Its scientific value is zero. There is a fast and easy way to determine the scientific value of a theory/model. One has to look at what the theory/model says about profit. Profit is the pivot of economics; if profit is false, the whole approach is false. #13

Now, how often does the word profit appear in Brian Albrecht's explanation of supply and demand? Not at all, zero! And this tells one without going into detail that Brian Albrecht is one of the many brain-dead blatherers who populate economics and are the very cause for the unassailable fact that economics is for 200+ years now a failed/fake science.

The right thing to do is to bury supply-demand-equilibrium at the Flat-Earth Cemetery and start anew. In methodological jargon, this is called a Paradigm Shift. More specifically, one has to move from provably false Walrasian microfoundations and provably false Keynesian macrofoundations to true macrofoundations. #14

This, though, is entirely beyond the capacities of the representative economist. The only thing they can do is sell their obsolete stuff to mentally retarded students: “We are trying to keep this lighthearted and fun while still discussing important economic ideas. We hope you do too.” Of course, the students do. The history of religion and the entertainment industry proves that young people readily accept any absurdity and stick to it until the end of their lives.

So, what does the correct Law of Supply and Demand look like? It is NOT derived from microfoundations because these end with methodological necessity in the Fallacy of Composition. There is no way to come from microfoundations to an understanding of how the economy works.

Here are the basics of the macrofoundations approach. #15 The elementary production-consumption economy is defined with this set of macroeconomic axioms: (A0) The economy consists of the household sector and the business sector, which, in turn, consists initially of one giant fully integrated firm. (A1) Yw=WL wage income Yw is equal to wage rate W times working hours. L, (A2) O=RL output O is equal to productivity R times working hours L, (A3) Ec=PX consumption expenditure Ec is equal to price P times quantity bought/sold X.

Under the conditions of market-clearing X=O and budget-balancing Ec=Yw in each period, the price as the dependent variable is given by P=W/R (1a). The price is determined by the wage rate W, which takes the role of the nominal numéraire, and the productivity R. This is the most elementary case.

The macroeconomic Law of Supply and Demand (1a) implies W/P=R (1b), i.e., the real wage is always equal to the productivity, no matter how the wage rate W is set or how long the working time L is. Full employment is possible, and the workers always get the entire product O. The workers' living standard depends ultimately on productivity.

The logical next steps are (i) to skip the conditions of market-clearing and budget-balancing, (ii) to differentiate the business sector into multiple firms and markets, and to determine the price structure.

For the time being, real balances are excluded, i.e., it holds X=O. The condition of budget-balancing, i.e., C=Yw, is now skipped. The monetary saving/dissaving of the household sector is defined as S≡Yw−Ec. The monetary profit/loss of the business sector is defined as Q≡Ec−Yw. Ergo Q≡−S.

The balances add up to zero. The mirror image of household sector saving S is the business sector loss −Q. The mirror image of household sector dissaving (-S) is business sector profit Q. Q≡−S is the elementary version of the macroeconomic Profit Law.

Instant ramifications: (i) Because the mirror image of saving is loss, Keynes's I=S is false, (ii) ALL IS-LM models are false, (iii) Post-Keynesianism in ALL variants is false.

For the macroeconomic Law of Supply and Demand, follows P=ρE W/R with ρE≡Ec/Yw. This Law becomes a bit more complex when differentiated for an arbitrary number of firms/markets.

The point to grasp is that the Law of Supply and Demand has to be derived top-down from macrofoundations and NOT bottom-up from microfoundations and silly behavioral assumptions like utility or profit maximization. Time to pry supply and demand from Brian Albrecht's cold, dead hands.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#10 Ch. 3 Market interdependence in Sovereign Economics
#13 Profit


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For more about supply-demand-equilibrium, see AXECquery.

September 11, 2020

MMT: the Oligarchy's latest beauty treatment

Comment on Bill Mitchell on ‘British-EU disputes suggest the Tories are set to break away from the sordid Thatcher legacy’


Bill Mitchell summarizes: “There are several facets to the discussion: (a) the on-going hypocrisy of the European Union elites; (b) the necessity for major state intervention in Britain (and everywhere) and the possibility that the Tories will abandon Margaret Thatcher’s EU single market legacy is another sign that the paradigm shift in macroeconomics is well under way. (c) the way in which the Labour party are being wedged on the issue and refusing to come out in support of further state aid. Instead, inasmuch as they are saying anything, they are just repeating the mindless, neoliberal dogma about ‘free trade’.”

Reduced to slogans, Thatcher/Reagan neoliberalism is remembered for:
• anti-statism/deregulation/privatization 
• free trade/globalization
• a macho/aggressive/anti-99%/pro-1% policy style
• rhetorical budget discipline. #1

After the successful implementation, at some point, the Oligarchy realized that this program backfired badly. So, in the last few years, the program was literally turned on its head. The most spectacular policy switch was from globalism to nationalism (MAGA) and from minimizing the state (Reagan's “government is the problem”) to capturing the state.

Bill Mitchell and his MMTers are the propaganda prophets of the new strategy. This new policy is sold as progressive, i.e., as benefiting WeThePeople, and it is heavily pushed over all communication channels from Bill Mitchell's speaking tours to Stephanie Kelton's NYT bestseller to massive Twitter trolling by an army of morons. #2

The fact of the matter is that the U.S. economy hangs already for a long time on the state ventilator for its survival. #3 In the elementary production-consumption economy with a state sector, macroeconomic profit comes ultimately from the household and state sector’s deficit-spending/money-creation, i.e., Qm≡(G−T)−Sm. This means that the greater part of the profit in the U.S. is actually produced by the state. The U.S. economy is NOT a dynamic/wealth-creating free-market economy as described in the economic textbooks, but hangs on the state ventilator for its survival. Private financial wealth is created by public deficit-spending/money-creation and is roughly equal to public debt.

The MMT policy of deficit-spending/money-creation is ultimately a means of postponing the breakdown of the U.S. economy. #4 It does not matter at all whether deficit-spending is justified by fighting unemployment, fighting COVID, or fighting climate change. #5 Because of the macroeconomic Profit Law, i.e., Public Deficit = Private Profit, the alleged benefit for WeThePeople, in any case, turns out to be a free lunch for the Oligarchy.

To save itself and to take the profit production into its own hands, the Oligarchy has given up its anti-state stance and tries to take over the national treasury and the central bank. #6 This is a Wall Street coup and has nothing at all to do with anti-Thatcherism/Reaganism/Neoliberalism.

Hollywood's political casting department has just replaced the bulldog face of aggressive Maggie Thatcher with the pretty face of emphatic Stephanie Kelton and ordered the academic Bill Mitchell to sell this Botox farce as a scientific Paradigm Shift.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke


#1 “During Reagan's eight-year presidency, the annual deficits averaged 4.0% of GDP, compared to a 2.2% average during the preceding eight years.” Wikipedia