AXEC: New Foundations of Economics: zCB

Showing posts with label zCB. Show all posts

November 16, 2018

How MMT makes everybody happy

Comment on Clint Ballinger on ‘MMT & the Fourth Spark Plug: Descriptive vs. Prescriptive revisited’

Blog-Reference and Blog-Reference

Clint Ballinger explains how MMT works: “Just as with the mechanic, there is no way to look at an otherwise well-running four cylinder car that is running needlessly on 3 cylinders and not mention “Errr,,,you know…it would run amazing if you simply connect that cable back, which I can do for free in 10 seconds.” … Another way to say this: In this case there is in effect a “free lunch”. There is almost no effort involved in plugging the fourth cylinder in, but a massive gain that is currently being foregone for no reason.”

The key words are “almost for free”. People like to get things “almost for free”. Fraudsters know this, and since the ancient gold makers, they promise ‘something for nothing.’ MMTers are no exception.

Let’s see how it works.

The elementary production-consumption economy is for a start defined by three macroeconomic axioms (Y_w=WL, O=RL, C=PX), two conditions (X=O, C=Y_w) and two definitions (profit/loss Q≡C−Y_w, saving/dissaving S≡Y_w−C). Legend: Y_w wage income, W wage rate, L employment, O output, R productivity, C consumption expenditures, P price, X quantity bought/sold.

It always holds Q+S=0 or Q=−S, in other words, the business sector’s surplus = profit equals the household sector’s deficit = dissaving and, vice versa, the business sector’s deficit = loss equals the household sector’s surplus = saving. This is the most elementary form of the macroeconomic Profit Law.

Given the two conditions, the market clearing price is derived for a start as P=W/R. So, the price P is determined by the wage rate W, which has to be fixed as a numéraire, and the productivity R. This is the macroeconomic Law of Supply and Demand.

Unfortunately, the elementary production-consumption economy is in the state of unemployment and nobody has any idea of how to fix the problem.

Now, the smart MMTer Clint Ballinger talks to the unemployed: “My park has been devastated, I offer each of you the current wage W if you clean up the mess. Your work is appreciated as a valuable contribution to environmental protection.”

The hitherto unemployed happily agree and start to work while Clint Ballinger vanishes in the basement of his house and prints the extra wage sum Y_wu. The money is indistinguishable from central bank money.

The income of the household sector increases to Y_w+Y_wu. If the households fully spend their income, consumption expenditures increase and the price goes up a little (NO inflation). The household sector as a whole gets the SAME total real output O under the conditions of market clearing. The hitherto unemployed now get a share of the output of the business sector. Correspondingly, the hitherto employed get less in real terms. Their real wage falls unnoticeable.

The profit of the business sector increases because Q₁=C₁−Y_w is greater than Q=C−Y_w=0 because C₁ is greater than C. The situation of the business sector improves. It holds: the business sector’s profit is equal to Clint Ballinger’s counterfeit money creation Y_wu.

That’s a real win-win solution, isn’t it? Clint Ballinger gets his park tidied up for free, the unemployed are productively employed, and the business sector’s profit increases.#1, #2 The question is: Who holds the bag? Could it be WeThePeople?

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke

#1 MMT: Money-making for the one-percenters
#2 MMT, money creation, stealth taxation, and redistribution

Related 'MMT: A free lunch for the Oligarchy'. For the full-spectrum refutation of MMT see cross-references MMT.

***

Wikimedia, AXEC142

November 15, 2018

MMT: A free lunch for the Oligarchy

Comment on Clint Ballinger on ‘MMT & the Fourth Spark Plug: Descriptive vs. Prescriptive revisited’

Blog-Reference and Blog-Reference

Like every good snake oil seller, Clint Ballinger first takes people away in a dream world: “Imagine you are an experienced mechanic. One day your neighbour comes home with a newly purchased used car. It is running terribly – sputtering and running slowly with little power. You look under the hood. It is a four cylinder car in good condition, and you notice that one of the spark plug cables is simply unconnected. The only thing that needs to be done to make the car run smoothly and with 100% power is to connect that spark plug so that all four cylinders fire. This is the case with economics and the economy. There are a minority of economists, MMT and Post Keynesian economists especially, who actually observe the real properties and understand the fundamentals of how the economy functions …”

The fact of the matter is, though, that neither MMTers nor Post-Keynesians understand how the economy works. Both approaches do not satisfy the scientific criteria of material and formal consistency. In other words, MMT is provably false. MMTers are NOT like the experienced mechanic, they are simply too stupid for the elementary mathematics that underlies macroeconomics.#1

As a result, the MMT policy of deficit-spending/money-creation has NO sound scientific foundations. MMTers are quite ordinary snake oil sellers.#2

Technically speaking, MMT is based on this sectoral balances equation (X−M)+(G−T)+(I−S)=0 and this equation is mathematically false. The correct balances equation reads (I−S)+(G−T)+(X−M)−(Q−Yd)=0 and this implies Public Deficit = Private Profit. In other words, the MMT policy of deficit-spending/money-creation boils down to money-making for the Oligarchy. The free lunch Clint Ballinger promises is indeed a free lunch but NOT for WeThePeople but for the Oligarchy.#3

For WeThePeople, the essential points to know about MMT are
• MMT has NO sound scientific foundations,
• MMT’s foundational sectoral balances equation is mathematically false,
• MMTers do NOT know how the monetary economy works,
• MMT is political agenda pushing in a scientific bluff package,
• MMT policy is NOT for the benefit of WeThePeople,#4
• MMT is just another political fraud,
• the storyteller Clint Ballinger is a pushy member of the MMT snake oil sales team.#5, #6, #7, #8

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke

#1 For the full-spectrum refutation of MMT see cross-references MMT *
#2 MMT, Warren Mosler, and the little helpers from Wall Street and Academia
#3 Why the MMT benefactors of humanity never talk about profit
#4 Deficit-spending/money-creation is ALWAYS a bad deal for WeThePeople
#5 The Kelton-Fraud
#6 MMT: The one deadly error/fraud of Warren Mosler
#7 Richard Murphy: the MMT fraudster dressed up as realist
#8 MMT: Academic snake oil for the people

Related 'Keynes, Lerner, MMT, Trump, Biden, and exploding profit' and 'Keynesianism as ultimate profit machine' and 'MMT sucks' and 'MMT: The fusion of Wall Street and Academia' and 'Economics, MMT, and the capture of science by the political mob' and 'Economics, MMT, and the corruption of science'.

* The formal proof is to be found here: Wikipedia, economics, scientific knowledge, or political agenda pushing?'. Because the foundational sectoral balances equation is false the whole MMT approach is false, see Refuting MMT’s Macroeconomics Textbook.

***

Wikimedia AXEC118d

November 14, 2018

The MMT defenders of interest on public debt: stupid or corrupt or both?

Comment on Clint Ballinger on ‘Decouple Spending From Bond Sales’

Blog-Reference and Blog-Reference

MMTers tell everyone that public debt is nothing to worry about and that deficit-spending/money-creation is the method of choice to do away with unemployment and most other social ills.

One critical argument against a permanently rising public debt is that interest payments to the holders of the public debt rise automatically depending on the current rate of interest. This interest effect could, in principle, be greatly reduced if the government/central bank (i) does not issue bonds, to begin with, and (ii) keeps the interest on bonds as close as possible to zero.

What exactly happens if the government runs a deficit in an elementary production-consumption economy? From the general macroeconomic Profit Law Q_m≡Y_d+(I−S)+(G−T)+(X−M) follows that Public Deficit = Private Profit if all other variables are taken out of the picture.

So, at the end of the first period, the business sector’s deposits at the central bank are equal to the government’s overdrafts. If deficit spending is repeated period after period, then the government’s debt in the form of overdrafts grows permanently and the same holds for the business sector’s deposits. Under the assumption that the interest rate is zero for overdrafts and deposits at the central bank, there is NO interest effect and no interest burden on public debt.

However, if deficit up ⇒ profit up ⇒ cash up ⇒ the business sector’s need for interest-bearing/riskless/liquid assets goes up under the condition that profits are not distributed or reinvested. Solution: the government/central bank issues bonds. Extra benefit: interest on Gov-Bonds redistributes income from WeThePeople via taxes to the Oligarchy.

Needless to emphasize that the useful idiots of the Oligarchy have a number of arguments why riskless Gov securities with a juicy return are good for the economy, the proletariat, and the little guy who needs to beef up his pension.

There are two factions among MMTers: one is content with the profit effect and opts for the abolition of bond issuance which amounts to the limitless growth of zero-interest overdrafts at the central bank, the greedy faction wants all, that is, profit plus permanent interest on a permanently growing debt.

Clint Ballinger and Richard Murphy are two of the really hard pushers of Wall Street’s agenda.#1

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke

#1 Richard Murphy: the MMT fraudster dressed up as realist

***

REPLY to Alan Longbon on Nov 14

You say: “The Federal Government Deficit = Private Sector Surplus, these are accounting identities true by definition.”

This is the foundational blunder of MMT. Time for you and the rest of retarded MMTers to do some scientific homework. The correct relationship is given with Public Deficit = Private Profit.

There is the household-, business-, government- and foreign trade-sector. The “private sector” is a swindle. For details see

Unfortunately, MMTers are too stupid for the elementary mathematics that underlies macroeconomics. This holds without exception.

Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)

Knowledge only — no opinion

Science does not explain everything, but non-science explains nothing.

Neither orthodox nor heterodox economics satisfies the scientific criteria of material and formal consistency.

Economists cannot explain how the economy works. The Profit Theory is false since Adam Smith. There is much opinion and little knowledge.

Opinion is the realm of political economics, knowledge is the realm of theoretical economics.

Political economics is scientifically worthless.

Theoretical economics is built upon clearly stated premises, i.e., upon a set of axioms.

Orthodoxy got the axiomatic foundations wrong and Heterodoxy has none at all.

Economics is a failed science. Economists are incompetent scientists.

Profit

Neither Classicals, nor Walrasians, nor Marshallians, nor Marxians, nor Keynesians, nor Institutionialists, nor Monetary Economists, nor MMTers, nor Austrians, nor Sraffaians, nor Evolutionists, nor Game theorists, nor EconoPhysicists, nor RBCers, nor New Keynesians, nor New Classicals ever came to grips with profit. Hence, they all fail to capture the essence of the market economy.

Because of this, economists have nothing to offer in the way of a scientifically founded economic policy guidance.

The hybrid science

As a first approximation, one can agree on the general characteristic that the economy is a complex system.

However, with the term system one usually associates a structure with components that are non-human. In order to stress the obvious fact that humans are an essential component of the economic system the market economy should be characterized more precisely as a complex hybrid human/system entity.

The scientific method is straightforwardly applicable to the sys-component but not to the hum-component. While it is clear that the economy always has to be treated as an indivisible whole, for good methodological reasons the analysis has to start with the objective system-component.

In gestalt-psychological terms the economic system is the foreground, individual behavior the background. Common sense wrongly insists that the hum-component must always be in the foreground. This fallacy compares to geo-centrism. The economic system has its own logic which is different from the behavioral logic of humans. The systemic logic is what Adam Smith called the Invisible Hand.

There are systemic laws but no behavioral laws. Systemic laws have the same methodological status as physical laws.

Neither Orthodoxy nor Heterodoxy can tell what the systemic laws of the actual monetary economy are.

Whether the outcome of the human/system-interaction is good or bad is a politcal question that lies outside of theoretical economics. Theoretical economics explains how the actual economy works - no less, no more.

Narrative vs.Theory

Psychological, sociological or behavioral assumptionism cannot yield anything other than a gossip model of the world. Second-guessing the agents is not economic analysis.

Science deals exclusively with propositions that can in principle be decided by objective means. The rest is opinion, faith, phantasy, motive speculation, allegation, hallucination, myth, paranoia, ink-blot association, psychology, philosophy, in one word: storytelling.

Storytelling is the original mode of communication in the social realm — except science.

Political economics is storytelling and, by default, the natural habitat of confused confusers. Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism are social narratives and not scientifically valid representations of reality.

"The truth is, most persons, not excepting professional economists, are satisfied with very hazy notions." (Fisher)

In marked contrast, theoretical economics lives up to the standards of material and formal consistency. A scientific theory is the best mental representation of reality that is humanly possible.

Theory starts with a set of objective and consistent axioms.

Paradigm Shift

"The problem is not just to say that something might be wrong, but to replace it by something — and that is not so easy." (Feynman)

"As will become evident, there is more agreement on the defects of orthodox theory than there is on what theory is to replace it: but all agreed that the point of the criticism is to clear the ground for construction." (Nell)

"The moral of the story is simply this: it takes a new theory, and not just the destructive exposure of assumptions or the collection of new facts, to beat an old theory." (Blaug)

"Is it not a fact, which stares at us from the histories of all sciences, that it is much more difficult for the human mind to forge the most elementary conceptual schemes than it is to elaborate the most complicated superstructure when those elements are well in hand?" (Schumpeter)

"The task of producing knowledge against the grain requires imagination." (Mirowski)

"A new idea is extremely difficult to think of. It takes a fantastic imagination." (Feynman)

"The scientific imagination dreams of explanations and laws." (Peirce)

"It is brilliance of imagination which makes the glory of science." (Evans)

"... we know little more now about ‘how the economy works,’ ... than we knew in 1790, after Adam Smith completed the last revision of The Wealth of Nations." (Clower)

Selftest and to watch for

You apply one of these items

• supply-demand-equilibrium,

• general equilibrium,

• marginal utility,

• well-behaved production functions,

• total income = value of output,

• total income = wages + profits,

• I=S,

• wage rate down - employment up,

• behavioral axioms?

Then you are out of science because of unnoticed material or formal inconsistency.

Every economist who uses the concept of equilibrium is scientifically incompetent because she/he failed to notice that equilibrium is an economic nonentity.

Practically this means: as soon as the word equilibrium appears in an economic text it can be thrown into the waste basket. The same holds for all other nonentities.

The vast majority of economists deals mainly with nonentities. This is why Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism is scientifically worthless.

Since Adam Smith, economic policy guidance has no sound scientific foundations.

To be replaced (1)

The core premises of Orthodoxy are uncertain and false and this fully explains the failure of the research program.

“As with any Lakatosian research program, the neo-Walrasian program is characterized by its hard core, heuristics, and protective belts. Without asserting that the following characterization is definitive, I have argued that the program is organized around the following propositions: HC1 economic agents have preferences over outcomes; HC2 agents individually optimize subject to constraints; HC3 agent choice is manifest in interrelated markets; HC4 agents have full relevant knowledge; HC5 observable outcomes are coordinated, and must be discussed with reference to equilibrium states.” (Weintraub)

The inescapable Paradigm Shift consists of the move from this obsolete hard core to the superior set of structural axioms.

To be replaced (2)

The fundamental equations of macroeconomics have been formulated by Keynes in two lines.

"Income = value of output = consumption + investment. Saving = income - consumption. Therefore saving = investment."

This elementary syllogism is demonstrably false. The demonstration consists in the proof that Keynes could not solve the Profit Puzzle. Neither did Post-Neo-New-Keynesians.

In the most general terms, the economics Paradigm Shift consists in switching from the behavior-centric bottom-up approach to the structure-centric top-down approach. This is comparable to the Copernican turn from geo-centrism to helio-centrism.

Consensus

Economics is a science without scientists. Because they are ignorant of the elementary difference between profit and income, the present generation of economists has not made and cannot make a significant contribution to the discussion about how the actual economy works.

Every orthodox or heterodox economist can convince himself/herself that their profit theory is defective.

Every non-economist can — by applying elementary logic — convince himself that conventional profit theories are false. See 'How the intelligent non-economist can refute every economist hands down'.

Because the profit theory is false the whole of conventional economic theory has to be rejected.

"What is now taught as standard economic theory will eventually disappear, no trace of it will remain in the universities or boardrooms because it simply doesn’t work: were it engineering, the bridge would collapse." (McCauley)

No scientist will ever accept Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, or Austrianism. These approaches are logically and/or empirically refuted. This is the actual methodological state-of-art. Walrasians, Keynesians, Marxians, or Austrians are still at the proto-scientific stage. These approaches cannot be improved, only abandoned.

Economists are a public nuisance because they have an opinion on everything but knowledge of nothing.

About me

“Bottom line is that your profit law is just a definition you made up nobody else agrees with, nobody. You are all alone with your precious tautology.” Barkley Rosser

“In any event, your entire theory is based on you doing macro accounting in wacky fashion that nobody agrees with.” Brian Romanchuk

"Your stuff is at least original: it's quite cool after a couple of decades at this to see a fresh Economics. But real promises are not advanced: they were around for millennia until the Greeks obscured them with Metaphysics." Chris Cook

"No mate, they're you-blockers. You have all the personality traits of a crank, and the rest of them have tired of you. You could be 100% right, and you'd still die as your only follower." Steve Keen

"What you are doing fills is all with joy, your constructive critique is most welcome!"

Achim Truger,

German Council of Economic Experts,

in a failed attempt to be ironic

"200+ years of thought and yet you are the only one who gets it—or even understands your argument. Thank god we have you, pseudonymous Twitter user. Otherwise no one would know."

William Luther

Assistant Professor of Economics

in a failed attempt to be funny

"Egmonts profit law is the perfect equation that demonstrates this in action. Put the equation into a spreadsheet and then add government spending and watch how it flows into profits. Enter in some debt (-Sm) and watch too how that flows into profits. It can't go anywhere else."

Dean

About the rest of economics

Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism, MMT, Pluralism are mutually contradictory, axiomatically false, materially/ formally inconsistent. Economics is a failed science.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” Leonardo da Vinci

In economics, the overwhelming majority belongs to Class III. This explains why economics is after 200+ years still at the proto-scientific level.

The obvious task for every economist is to advance from cargo cult science and political agenda-pushing to science. This is absolutely beyond the means of Class III people.

For 200+ years now, economists are not scientists but agenda pushers, useful idiots, clowns in the political Circus Maximus.

Nopopop

This blog does not add to any popular/un- popular opinion.

This blog does not hand out advice about how to avoid taxes, to get rich on the stock market, to be successful in business, to increase the wealth of nations, to run an economy, to maximize welfare, to prevent national/global bankruptcy, to improve the institutional setup of society, to get out of national/global depression, nor about how to save humankind or any subgroup thereof.

This blog is about the true theory of the actual monetary economy.

"In order to tell the politicians and practitioners something about causes and best means, the economist needs the true theory or else he has not much more to offer than educated common sense or his personal opinion." (Stigum)

Focus

Science is of primary interest and importance. Scientists are of secondary interest.

With regard to science, most people lose focus easily because of a natural preference for anecdotes and gossip over facts or subjectivity over objectivity.

Hence, Schumpeter once considered it necessary to remind his habitually disoriented fellow economists: “Remember: occasionally, it may be an interesting question to ask why a man says what he says; but whatever the answer, it does not tell us anything about whether what he says is true or false.”

Science is about true/false and nothing else.

Disclaimer

Missing Blog-Reference links: AXEC does not guarantee that their comments can at any time be recovered from where they have been posted intitially because the availability depends on the publication policy of the blog owner which is implicitly accepted on entering a debate. See also: 'Economists: Incompetent? Stupid? Corrupt?'

Texts: Parts of arbitrary length of any of the author's texts is and will be used again by the author in papers, books, websites, blogs, and other media without explicit reference. The right to make corrections or minor textual improvements on reutilization is reserved. Therefore, it is always a good idea to double-check for the latest version.

Caution: Do not expect a corroboration of your political view. Neither a refutation. Political economics has been scientifically worthless since Adam Smith. Politics has to be separated from economics because it is categorically different from science. The best science can do and has always done is to prove beyond reasonable doubt that you have been objectively wrong or ignorant until now. Science goes beyond the naive common sense of today and becomes the sophisticated common sense of tomorrow.

See also Terms of Use and Legal at www.AXEC.org

Outlook

To recall, while political economics is storytelling, theoretical economics adheres to scientific standards.

The first task of theoretical economics is to get the axiomatic foundations right. This is what J. S. Mill called the opus magnum. Neither Orthodoxy nor Heterodoxy came up with a reasonable solution to this day. This explains the secular stagnation of economics.

There is no serious alternative to structural axiomatic economics. This is not a matter of opinion but of proof. The sole criteria are material and formal consistency.

All of economics has to be reconstructed from the ground up.

Major economic policy implication

The price mechanism does not work as standard economics hypothesizes. The axiom-based Employment Law states that overall employment increases if the average wage rate increases relative to average price and productivity. This gives one the lever to improve the employment situation all over the world and to fend off deflation without rising debt and without artificial capacity growth. To increase the average price relative to the average wage rate and productivity increases unemployment.

Right policy depends on true theory.

“In order to tell the politicians and practitioners something about causes and best means, the economist needs the true theory or else he has not much more to offer than educated common sense or his personal opinion.” (Stigum)

Lacking the true theory, economists promote for more than 200 years opinion instead of knowledge.